Igor Todorov: Russia is waging an all-out war against the West and the Balkans is one of the most important fronts

Russia is waging a hybrid war not only against Ukraine, but is also using its influence at various levels: political, informational, economic, and cultural.

Its goal is to undermine trust in the Western world from within and create new sources of conflict.

With the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, these threats have become even more real. Igor Todorov (Ukraine), Professor at the National University of Uzhhorod and Doctor of Historical Sciences, speaks about this in an exclusive interview with The Geopost.

The full interview can be found here:

The Geopost: The presidents of the US and Ukraine recently met at the Vatican. It was the first meeting since the incident between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in the Oval Office. What significance does this meeting have for the prospects for peace?

Todorov: The photo of Presidents Zelensky and Trump in St. Peter's Basilica has really made the rounds around the world. There have been many, many interpretations. But in my opinion, we should not be satisfied with positive comments, even if they come from Russians who say that Trump was given something to drink and that he changed his attitude towards the war and Ukraine. Even Trump's posts on social networks, in which he speaks positively about the President of Ukraine, have little value. Statements from his inner circle – poorly educated people who direct the foreign policy actions of the United States – do not give cause for optimism. Because in reality, these attempts to stop the war “immediately”, and even the rather critical assessment by the White House of Putin's initiative for a ceasefire during the celebration of Victory Day in the “Great Patriotic War” – all this rather indicates a desire not to spoil their celebration of Victory Day hysteria…

In my opinion, the prospect of ending the war is not realistic. Russia has not deviated a single step from its demands. This is confirmed by a recent interview with Foreign Minister Lavrov. This is what they have actually aimed for from the very beginning: the liquidation of the Ukrainian state, the destruction of the Ukrainian population with Ukrainian identity, and the restoration of the empire precisely at the expense of Ukraine. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not worth considering a real prospect for peace. The demands of the United States – including those in the form of ultimatums – regarding the legal recognition of Russian control over Crimea and the de facto occupation of four Ukrainian regions are categorically unacceptable for Ukraine. There was an impasse on these issues, and nothing has changed.

So, to believe that Trump will come and solve everything is fantastic. Even though he repeated 65 times during the election campaign and after taking office that he would solve the “Ukrainian conflict” within 24 hours. It has been 100 days of his presidency and the situation has not improved. We also notice that the United States is increasingly siding with Russia. It is the Russian narratives about the causes of the war and the possibilities of ending it that are repeated.

Unfortunately, the concept of victory has disappeared from our internal information space. In my opinion, this should not be allowed. Because, as the German politician Pistorius said, Trump is actually proposing the surrender of Ukraine, and the “peace mediation efforts” of the US government were not necessary for this.

So far, the outlook is quite bleak. But at the same time, we are seeing a trend towards an increasing role for Europe and the European Union, as well as for Great Britain, especially in relation to support for Ukraine, especially military support. We can say that the Ukrainian vector has become one of the reasons for the deterioration of relations between NATO allies. Demands for recognition of Crimea as Russian fundamentally violate the principles of international law – in particular territorial integrity and inviolability of borders.

However, from the perspective of American interests, such a position may seem logical, since territorial claims (of the USA – editor’s note) to NATO allies remain. For example, regarding Greenland – an area belonging to Denmark. And recently, after the Canadian general election, Trump expressed the hope that the new prime minister would make Canada the 51st state. Of course, this is nonsense, but it is a sad modern reality.

The Geopost: Trump and his team have changed the world order; the norms of international law no longer apply. All this poses a real risk that the United States will withdraw from the negotiation process and from supporting Ukraine in general. Is Europe prepared for such challenges?

Todorov: Such a risk does exist, but it is not a current issue. On the other hand, there are statements that the United States will not withdraw from the negotiation process, even if the purpose of this negotiation process remains questionable.

As for Europe, the formation of a “coalition of the determined” shows that traditional European politicians are aware of what is happening. This awareness is based on the conviction that liberal democracy, the democratic values ​​on which Europe is founded and which are embodied in the preamble of the North Atlantic Treaty, continue to be a value for Europeans. Of course, they will continue to help Ukraine within their means. Another question: Is this enough? There is no clear answer to this.

But unfortunately, there is still no alternative to our struggle – a struggle for independence, for the existence of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Therefore, we hope that Europe will maintain its positive attitude towards Ukraine and its support. It should also strengthen them under the specific conditions of the position of the United States.

The Geopost: This is a very serious challenge, given how much the Russian propaganda campaign has intensified in Europe and the world. How does Russia manage to convince the world that it is not the aggressor, but that Ukraine is to blame for the conflict, which Russia calls a “special military operation”?

Todorov: You can't say that Russian narratives have conquered and dominated the world. But Russia is investing a lot of money in propaganda that talks about "Ukrainian National Socialism," about the threat to Russia from Ukraine, and about the Russian "special military operation" as a step to prevent Ukraine's actions.

All this works for certain social classes. Why does it work? Even if we do not take into account the huge amounts invested in propaganda. Unfortunately, in Europe (and not only in Europe) there are some liberal stereotypes: that it is possible to agree somewhere in the middle, that another point of view should be taken into account. They are spread by intellectuals, even scientists and experts in European countries, and Russia successfully uses “useful idiots”. Such a danger is certainly very, very serious. But I have the impression that the absolute majority of European leaders (with the exception of Viktor Orban and Robert Fico) still understand what is happening, and the majority of public opinion in European countries supports Ukraine.

In the United States, despite the de facto pro-Russian stance of the Trump administration, the idea of ​​supporting Ukraine and promoting democracy is still being preserved. But it seems that the American government does not pay much attention to public opinion in its own country. Of course, we must protect ourselves from this. Ukraine has only very limited capabilities to defend itself, but this does not mean that we should not do so. However, it is our partners in European countries, most of them, I want to emphasize, who hold precisely such pro-Ukrainian positions.

However, there is a risk that Russian propaganda will operate in such populist and marginal circles in European countries. Since Europe is a democratic area, there is always a risk that these pro-Russian populist parties will gain popularity.

Theoretically, they could even come to power. I hope this does not happen, but such a risk must also be taken into account. And we must oppose this at all levels: with public and traditional diplomacy, with our media, with culture and the like.

We are, so to speak, in a state of total war with Russia. This is not just the front in eastern Ukraine, but a hybrid front at all levels.

Incidentally, there is a possibility that the recent incident in Europe (the power outage in Spain and Portugal, which also affected several other EU countries – ed.), which is related to energy supply, is also a Russian action. This has not yet been proven, but it is very easy to determine who benefits from it. Of course we know who.

The Geopost: We know how big Russia’s influence and sphere of interest is in the Balkans and especially in Serbia. There are offices of Russia Today and Sputnik in Belgrade, which broadcast Kremlin propaganda 24 hours a day. Some analysts suspect that the Balkans could become the next flashpoint in Europe if the war in Ukraine does not end. Is there any basis for such a claim?

Todorov: In my opinion, yes. I have already said that Russia is waging a full-scale war against the West, and the Balkans are one of the most important fronts because in some countries, especially in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and even in Croatia, there are cunning pro-Russian politicians. Therefore, Russia is doing everything it can to use the opportunity to exacerbate the traditional contradictions in the Balkans for its own benefit. This is a possible attempt to divert attention from the war in Ukraine. And above all, to realize its own geopolitical interests in the Balkans. So far, there has been no serious confrontation, but Russia is working on it. We must take as many countermeasures as possible in all areas to prevent the Balkans from becoming a hotbed of crisis again.

/The Geopost