
Former Croatian Admiral Ivica Mandic in the final part of his interview for The Geopost analyzes the role of the Russian intelligence services, the FSB and the GRU, in the Balkans and beyond.
Focusing on the influence of these structures in the region, especially in Serbia, he reveals the tactics used for covert operations, coup attempts and their influence on certain regimes. Mandic highlights the internal transformations of the GRU and how these changes make it more difficult to identify its activities. He shares concerns about Russian influence and their involvement in covert operations in strategic regions.
Beyond this look at geopolitical influences, the former admiral also speaks about the need for the West to review its strategies to strengthen defense, security and cooperation, mentioning the importance of a deep reform of the European Union’s military sector.
Last week, The Geopost published the first part of the interview with former Croatian Admiral Ivica Mandic.
Final part of the interview:
The Geopost: What is the difference in the influence and activities of the FSB and the GRU in the Balkans and how do you see these influences in the Balkans, especially in Serbia?
Mandic: Well, as far as the FSB is concerned, it is, the FSB is just like it, it is more in charge of internal and regime protection, or counterintelligence protection. The SVR refers to the foreign intelligence service, it does, however, such influence operations, including black and dirty operations of bribery, assassinations and so on, are mainly carried out by the GRU, not mainly but really and it has recently undergone a more serious transformation where Russia remains and continues to be a major threat precisely because of where they, the GRU has transformed from the inside, and they have taken a million measures so that with modern techniques you cannot so easily, quickly detect who works in that GRU.
They have undertaken a reform of the combat support that accompanies the GRU agents, but the problem that remains for them is that they still do not have an independent body to assess their results, but the problem is that those who plan and implement the operation have to assess it. And in many cases, those GRU agents have been detected, particularly, interestingly, from the United Kingdom, but also from European countries where they have tried to kill Russian citizens who were dissidents and so on. They detected the two GRU agents who tried to carry out a coup d’état in Montenegro. So the problem of detecting them was not particularly difficult, but then they were put in a very awkward position because they were official members of the secret service and of the state, a very awkward position.
This is based on influence, and this influence must be directly called corruption, and the people who participated in this venture were in Montenegro, they are locals, they were released and they were let go. The few, Russians who did this were not even brought to justice, and the problem is that those who took part from the Republic of Serbia were not brought to justice.
So, when a coup attempt is made, there is no statute of limitations. And in the end, at least as far as the Republic of Serbia is concerned, these people will go where they belong, behind closed doors. Why was it used as a base of operations by Serbia and even by some of its own people, especially Partizan supporters, a criminal group recruited by the GRU? Whether they knew they were working for them or not, they worked for them, recruited and then implemented. And in that sense, nothing new, apart from improving the organisation, so that you do not discover them and their dirty operations outside. And the management, the GRU has been managing the Wagner Group all along, now it has simply undergone a structural change so that it is an expeditionary unit, so all along. And here again, when it comes to foreign operations, the West is to blame.
We have neglected Africa and a number of countries like that, and in this open space, in some parts where it is orderly, Chinese capital has come in, and in those parts where there are ethnic tensions or wars, the Russians have come in with a team, helping various regimes, Mali, for example, etc. The problem is not that they have come in. The problem is why, after 100 years of cooperation with, say, France and other countries, the home governments expelled the Westerners and instead of Wagner, called in an expeditionary force to carry out training and to carry out certain military operations to protect the regimes, and so on and so on.
So there is no excuse for Putin to carry out dirty operations, oblivion of the West, that one can do in one moment something that is immanent to democracy, that is to say, to carry out the will of the people to be able to exploit and enforce these weaknesses. So this is a very serious matter where the whole of Western politics has to communicate with its own people and slowly change its priorities without going into a position of McCarthyism and now we are going to talk about witches, because this is an attack by the state, on the shadow, but on politics, all that has to be carried out and presented in a way to win the support of the people.
One of these is the reform of the military-industrial complex of the entire European Union, simply because it is much cheaper to produce many things together. This does not mean that you are now arming and militarising the European Union, but it does mean that it is easier to carry out research and development jointly than when you work alone. What the European Union has done with Airbus, it should do with its military industry.
That means one thing in terms of the allocation of effort for the defence of the Atlantic area and Europe, a little more serious allocation of that money, and still around 2%, that is a lot of money to allocate, and something is expected in that sense, given that there is a Commissioner for Defence, a European Commission, that agreements can be reached in this area, you cannot impose something on the Member States, but that some things are simply looked at economically, commercially, that is to say, in the common interest, so that Europe is not dependent on the cursory, urgent and immediate intervention of the United States. Our warehouses are empty, our armies are reduced to a minimum, our armies are disarmed, simply disarmed.
And it is not that we are going to militarise society, to increase the huge problem of the army, but that the army has to evolve systematically over the years, to follow the world’s top trends, also the security of the intelligence services, and this work will never stop as long as there are states. And if we stop playing with our kindness and giving people opportunities to develop, nobody will touch us. That is simply wrong. The world cannot say that the liberal theory of the outbreak of war has won. No. It is still conservative, and that is why the man is incorrigible. That is the way it is. There will always be someone who will incite people to war. Yes, I believe that is the case now, and we should be aware of that. It means strengthening our economic security and our defence institutions.
Simply not with the aim, and this is important, not of war, but of preventing war. Simply to be so credible in everything that we can prevent war. Whether it is a nation state, the European Union or NATO, NATO is quite credible and it deters, it does not allow anyone to touch it, and that, after all, is its role.
The European Union needs this and there are a lot of policies in this area, and now we have come to the Balkans, the GRU, so the next time you come, I will sentence you to 40 years in prison and you will not think about it any more. And I will not replace you with anybody, I will not replace you with anybody, and I will have nothing to do with the one who sent you. Please note that, even after the end of the military operations in Ukraine, sanctions will remain in place in the Russian Federation.
And that is no reason to rejoice, because it could end up in a serious mess. So the sanctions remain. There is no way that, with so much power concentrated in the West and the will and determination to use it, you are going to come and overcome the Ukrainian will.
/The Geopost