Professor of International and Public Affairs of Columbia University Tanya L. Domi, in an interview with The Geopost spoke about the controlled media in Serbia, the distribution of Russian propaganda through them, but also the change that is noticed, according to her, recently in these media.
Domi also talks about the pressure of the West on Vucic, the way he reacts to this pressure and the path that Serbia must choose between the West and Russia.
The US influence on the general crises in the Balkans, the fate of the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue and the impact of the Ukraine crisis in terms of security in the Balkans are other topics that Ms. Domi spoke about.
You can read the full interview below:
Geopost: How do you describe the narration of the Serbian controlled media who speak the same propaganda language as Moscow?
I think in the media environment in Serbia, with respect to Russian influence, there had been Sputnik Serbia, that was available in Serbia, but I don’t think that the propaganda of Russia is really not that pertinent. Only in that they are very much aligned, up until very recently, Serbia and Russia are basically echoing one another. They’re like mirrors of each other, and that has infiltrated their media environment, and it also goes into the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a matter of fact. So it’s not just Serbia that’s being “influenced by Russia”, but it’s also happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
But what I would say is that the tabloids, basically repeat this stuff and they talked about Russia, quite frequently. And if you look at any public opinion polling on Serbia, you will see that the most popular country outside of Serbia, besides, loving their own country, the most popular country within the population of Serbia is Russia, and has been for many, many years.
Putin has visited and Vucic talks about Russia. Up until this invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Mr Vucic was very, very freely associating with Russia, buying their weapons, meeting with the Russians, meeting with Putin. So, there’s really been no reason to need even Russian propaganda in Serbia, Serbia does it for them.
Geopost: To clarify its western path, does Serbia need to fully adapt to Western policies?
I think right now the question of where Serbia sits on the issue of Russia in Europe is that it’s probably feeling a lot of pressure. I just read the interview that Chris Hill gave, the new U.S. Ambassador to Serbia gave to Radio Free Europe. And, it’s really up to Serbia which way they go, but, Serbia is geographically located in Europe, and all the countries around Serbia are supporting the sanctions on Russia, including Hungary, which is much illiberal state as Serbia is. So, if you’re surrounded by all these European countries and you have been allegedly seeking to join the EU, you’ve got to be feeling some pressure, given the extraordinary invasion of Ukraine by Russia. And not only is extraordinary, it has been a war crime from day one, and I think that perhaps, Aleksander Vucic was not prepared for a response by the European continent to condemn Russia, just full on, right out. The actions of the Russian military have been characterized by indiscriminate attacks on civilians, killing civilians, raping civilians, and there is nary a military targeting site of just killing civilians at will and is one more crime after another. So, he’s got to be feeling some pressure, and given that we just talked about the media environment, you starting to see a shift in the media environment, where their tabloids have been condemning Russia to a certain extent, and even the state-controlled media has not been espousing these glowing reports of Slavic brotherhood between Serbia and Russia now. So, I think that there are people inside the Serbian government that are probably talking to the media, and they are starting to move a bit away from their full embrace of Russia. There is also a lot of discussion going on in the media, will Vucic be able to get out of this situation, and the situation is that he has been sitting on two stools. That’s the common expression in Serbia, is he with Russia or is he with European Union? I would say it’s a three-legged stool where is he standing between Moscow, Brussels and Washington? And Washington has sent probably the most experienced living Balkan ambassador to Belgrade, and he just assumed his post late last month and he’s been very clear that Serbia should not be buying military equipment from Russian and Chinese army.
If you are going to develop a really effective coordinated security structure, you should really be buying equipment from one country or within NATO allies for example.
But that is more of an out picturing of where do they stand, are they going to be in the West, or is he going to continue to align himself with Russia, which is now for all practical purposes a pariah state. It is more than likely, in my view that Mr. Putin will probably never travel beyond Russia, except for the G20 meeting, I suppose the Europeans are hoping, maybe if he comes to the G20, they will be able to talk some sense into him about stopping this war, but it does not seem that he has any inclination to stop this war, and it does not benefit Serbia to be closely aligned with Russia in this moment. So, it’s really a question of which way does this new government go in Serbia. And he’s got to deal with the opposition to his right, and there is really not much of an opposition to the left, and who becomes prime minister, will also probably reflect some of this direction, but we are all trying to read the cards, which cards is Mr. Vucic going to lay down on the table.
Geopost: How do you see the role of the United States in this crisis in the Balkans?
With respect to United States and Mr. Hill’s first interview, he was very clear that Russia was not going to be any help to Serbia on resolving the relationship with Kosovo. He said that’s not going to work, you can see what Russia does, Russia attacks, and they actually commit violence, they use violence, they have done this in Georgia, they did it in Syria, they then annexed Crimea in 2014 and now they resumed a hot war in Ukraine itself. So, he is making a point that Serbia should not be turning to Russia for help on Kosovo, as a matter of fact, a kind of help that Russia has provided to Serbia is blocking Kosovo from all international organizations, such as the UN, they’ve been blocked at the OSCE. If Kosovo is going to have a future, Kosovo deserves to be integrated to the international framework and they should be allowed to join international organizations.
So I think that it will be interesting to see how Ambassador Hill negotiates this relationship with Mr. Vucic, but I think Mr. Hill will be an articulate spokesman for US values, which align with Brussels. And if you are deviating from those values, what kind of life are you creating for people in your own country and with your neighbor, as in Kosovo.
Geopost: Do you think that the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue will end and How do you see this ending?
Well this is being going on for such a long time and I know that there is a meeting on the 13th of this month to discuss license plates. It’s kind of back to the future experience for me, because I was in Bosnia when we were negotiating license plates between political entities. The fact that they used license plates, Serbia reacted with escalating violence last year regarding the border situation. You know, Kosovo removed the license plates as it has happened inside Serbia when people drive into Serbia from Kosovo. So that escalated into, not only a border standup, but actually Serbia put aircraft in the air. Mr. Lajcak has yet to really forge a solid negotiating strategy that is delivered on resolving this dispute. Now, the parties have to want to resolve the dispute, and Mr. Kurti has been really clear, we are going to be treated with respect and that we are an equal player, don’t make us a side show or insult us. And I’m not sure Mr. Lajcak, as some of my colleagues at the Democratization Policy Council, they have said, clearly that Mr. Lajcak is really not the right person for this negotiation. And the EU in general has not really moved this dialogue forward, and I think that the United States is been trying to be supportive of this, and now with Mr. Hill in Belgrade, it will be interesting to see if he can be of any help as well. But right now, it just has really been a kind of a standstill, and let’s see what happens on the 13th, but given the track record that Mr. Lajcak and the history of this process, I don’t have right now have a lot of confidence that is going to be resolved in a manner that is going to allow Kosovo and Serbia to co-exist in peace. This is deeply troubling to see how I think the EU is not really managing this process well, but again, Serbia has to be acting in good faith, as does Kosovo, and those parties have to agree, when you are making “peace, you are not making peace with your friend, you are making peace with your enemies.”
Geopost: How much has the Ukrainian crisis affected the Balkans in terms of security?
I think that this war has sent fear through. I was in Sarajevo in March and I have talked to my friends, my Kosovar friends, and of course this evokes memories of their wars, their respective wars. I think that people are quite jittery, for example in Bosnia in the first day of the war with Russia in Ukraine, the EU sent 500 new soldiers to reinforce EUFOR. I am sure that Kosovo feels good about having a NATO contingent within their borders. The best thing I could say, here is an advantage about the situation in Ukraine. It is very clear now that Russia is not going to be able to get to the Balkans through any kind of air travel, in other words they are not going to be able to fly military aircraft through EU airspace, it’s going to be shut down for them. So, I see actually a less of the threat now do to this Ukraine war, believe it or not. I think that right now Serbia is being very careful about what they are saying, how they are acting, Russia is not going to be able to be an active threat to the region in military terms right now. Even Hungary, they sort of stayed within the lines of Europe, they are not threatening other countries, as well. And that’s one of the benefits of this and I do think, it’s very clear now, that in terms of Russia acting in a corrosive manner towards Bosnia, in particularly they have been threatening them quite a bit, and while I was in Sarajevo, the war was happening and the Russian ambassador threatened Bosnia again and said, if you think you are going to join NATO, you can do that, but we will react, and just look at Ukraine as an example. So, that’s kind of some saber rattling, but they operationally are not going to be able to do it and it also the behavior of Russia in Ukraine does affirm the threat that Russia poses to small countries like Kosovo and Bosnia in theory. So, this war is actually working in a way that is suppressing an active hostility, maybe emanating from Belgrade and any potential threats beyond the Balkans. I think Turkey is also acting in a manner, they are NATO member, they are trying to help support Ukraine in this instance, and that’s the irony of this war, but I do think it evokes a lot of fear and concern by people living in the Balkans, and people are afraid and it brings up really bad memories of what’s happened during the past 30 years, I think for both countries, Kosovo and Bosnia.