Putin needs a second front in Europe, and Vucic needs an eternal policy of “not giving Kosovo”

The actions of the State Department and the US diplomacy in our region and in the context of the relations between the Republic of Serbia and the Republic of Kosovo, which happened a few days ago, are not a surprise given the official response from Washington, but are in fact a product of the current American position, says in a conversation with Geopost Ambassador Miodrag Vlahovic, President of the Montenegrin Helsinki Committee and former head of Montenegrin diplomacy.

“In this sense, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s first reaction was less expected. I am sure you will recall that in his first response he had a connotation – probably prepared by someone from the Europe and Eurasia Department – that rather drastically ignored what was actually happening in Kosovo in those days, that tomorrow there would be a certain correction in terms of understanding and acknowledging that there were phenomena and developments in the situation that you also spoke about”.

This is not a spontaneous reaction of innocent citizens or people whose rights are threatened, Vlahovic stresses, “but a coordinated action involving people who are registered as members of various criminal gangs and are linked to the regime in Belgrade and there are videos of this.”

On the other hand, he points out that “it seems to me that the reaction of the Kosovo authorities and Mr Kurti is something where positive tones are clearly prevailing”.

He points out that Vucic welcomes the creation of a problem in Kosovo, to which “our American friends have reacted in line with what has unfortunately been their attitude in recent months and years towards the situation in Serbia, not only in the Serbian-Kosovan context relations, but of course also in relation to the situation in the whole Western Balkans area”.

“Official Moscow, Putin and his elite and their services – both there and here – are happy to look at any possibility of an escalation of the conflict in the Balkans. Putin needs a second front in Europe, and Vucic needs an endless struggle of “not giving Kosovo”.

Our interlocutor wonders how it is possible that some of the current principles of US policy in the Western Balkans are supported by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

“For example, we have the so-called “Open Balkans” initiative, which is supported by the regime in Belgrade and all the structures, services, media, NGOs, including the “NGO” Church of Serbia and the most anti-Western, so to speak, political structures of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the work entitled Republika Srpska, which are also fervently in favour of the so-called Open Balkans”.

In Montenegro, he adds, you have national-chauvinists of a large Serbian prefix and content who are enthusiastic about this idea.

“At the end of that strange list of parties and politicians who are also anti-NATO – you have a clear expression of satisfaction, i.e. support for the Open Balkans as a projection – the Foreign Ministry in Moscow!”

The Montenegrin diplomat also referred to the extremely complex situation in Montenegro, saying that Montenegro is dominated by mediocrity, political groups, political personalities and projections that lack basic knowledge, finesse and vision.

Asked who Vučić’s favourites are in Montenegro, our interlocutor points out that Vučić has many favourites.

“It’s like in chess – he has one set of peasants and in one situation one peasant is important to him, in another situation he will choose another peasant, in a third situation he will sacrifice one wing so that the other wing can advance and advance as the closest. And so on”.

Vlahovic supports the current protests against violence in Belgrade as, as he says, at the same time a kind of impulse, a stimulus and a democratic and civic reflex in the country of Serbia.

“I belong to that political worldview that would like to see a democratic government that respects only Serbia and its Serbian neighbours, that treats Montenegro as an equal, friendly country, that does not deal with Montenegro as a territory, which unfortunately has been the case in recent years in a quite visible form”. So: a democratic, normal, European Serbia is in the interests of its citizens and of the whole region to which we belong.

The Geopost: State Department sanctions Kosovo for “irritating” Serbian protesters by installing legally elected Albanian mayors. Kosovo is also threatened with the imposition of a possible protectorate – “at worst Palestine, at best Cyprus”, as the US ambassador in Pristina put it. On the other hand, Serbian demonstrators, including those with a proven criminal record, wounded 30 KFOR soldiers and were not reprimanded. Were you surprised by the US response?

VLAHOVIC: First of all, I am happy to have the opportunity to talk to TheGeopost about things that are complex. The US official reaction is unfortunately not a surprise. They represent the continuity of what has been ‘Pax Americana’ in our area over the last ten years.

There is a strange coincidence, a continuation that we did not expect two or three years ago, a continuation of the policy embodied by Donald Trump and Richard Grenell. The new, democratic Biden administration, with representatives whom we all know well – Mr Escobar and Mr Chole in Washington and Mr Hill in Belgrade – is more or less continuing along the same track, which is not bad to expect and which many, including many of us, believe would not happen.

The actions of the State Department and US diplomacy in our area and in the context of relations between the Republic of Serbia and the Republic of Kosovo, which happened a few days ago, are not a surprise, given the official response from Washington, but are in fact a product of the current American position. In this sense, the first reaction of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was less expected. I am sure you will recall that in his first response, he had a connotation – which was probably prepared by someone from the Europe and Eurasia Department – that rather drastically ignored what was actually happening in Kosovo in those days, so that tomorrow there would be a certain correction in terms of understanding and acknowledging that the phenomena and the evolution of the situation that you have also spoken about were there.

So that this is not a spontaneous reaction by innocent citizens or people whose rights are under threat, but a coordinated action involving people who are registered as members of various criminal gangs and who are linked to the regime in Belgrade, and video footage of this. Of course, there is the quite inevitable and logical explanation that this kind of targeted, i.e. deliberately provoked, escalation in the north of Kosovo has been misused, i.e. placed in the function of the current problems facing Serbian President Vucic in Belgrade and in Serbia.

He therefore has an extremely problematic and complex situation, for which, of course, he and his offices, the media, the Church and his political and other circles, the internal factors of his power, are largely, if not exclusively, responsible. Vucic is therefore welcome to create a problem in Kosovo, to which our American friends have responded, given how they have unfortunately behaved in recent months and years towards the situation in Serbia, not only in the context of Serbian-Kosovan relations, but also, of course, in relation to the situation in the whole area of the Western Balkans.

The Geopost: Has Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti done the right thing?

VLAHOVIC: It is difficult to answer this question one-dimensionally.

It seems to me that Mr Kurti’s explanations, which are getting a positive echo in many headlines both inside and outside the region, are speaking about him, about his political beliefs and his actions, in much more positive tones, or a much more serious interpretation of what he is doing – than was the case six months ago or a year ago.

Therefore, I think that it is clear from the explanation of the Kosovo Prime Minister, Mr Kurti, that there is a logical order of things, a reason for the reaction of a sovereign authority on its own territory – notwithstanding the fact that Kosovo’s reality is complicated in a number of issues, not only in terms of the emergence of the Republic of Kosovo as an independent state, but also in terms of the current relations and situation of the Serbian national minority and its relations with official Belgrade.

It seems to me that there is American pressure in this exchange of public announcements and communications and messages, which I have to say frankly, as the former first ambassador of the newly independent state of Montenegro in Washington and as a Foreign Minister who had really honest and very friendly and substantive cooperation at a time when Montenegro was prioritising the decision to re-establish Montenegro’s independence – for me, this American attitude, behaviour and action is something that has predominantly negative connotations. On the other hand, it seems to me that the reaction of the Kosovo authorities and Mr Kurti is something where legitimate arguments clearly prevail.

The Geopost: To what extent does this Western policy towards Serbia benefit Russian strategic interests in the region?

VLAHOVIC: The “most elegant” answer would be to go and ask our respected and valued American friends – how do they see the implications of their own policy towards the Western Balkans, and can they give a credible, valid and logically sustainable explanation?

How is it possible that some of the current principles of their policy in the Western Balkans are supported by the Russian Foreign Ministry? For example, we have the so-called ‘Open Balkans’ initiative, which is supported by the regime in Belgrade and all the structures, services, media, NGOs, including the ‘NGO’ Church of Serbia and the most anti-Western, so to speak, political structures of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in a work entitled Republika Srpska, which are also fervently in favour of the so-called Open Balkans. In Montenegro, you have national-chauvinists of a large Serbian prefix and content who are enthusiastic about this idea. At the end of that strange list of parties and politicians who are also anti-NATO – you have a clear expression of satisfaction, i.e. support for the Open Balkans as a projection – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow!

Let us return to your basic question – it is quite logical that Aleksandar Vucic, in the circumstances, in the great difficulties in which he has unexpectedly, but perhaps also predictably, found himself, is therefore following the old bad, the worst, ‘argument’ – and that is the relationship with Kosovo. To use what has become a colloquial expression, ‘not giving Kosovo’ as a political activity which has no beginning and no end, no boundaries and no definitions, and which can be very easily – as we can see – abused in any situation, including this rather shaky and unstable situation in Belgrade and Serbia.

Official Moscow, Putin and his top brass and their services – both there and here – are happy to look at any possibility of an escalation of the conflict in the Balkans. Putin needs a second front in Europe, and Vucic needs an endless struggle not to “not giving Kosovo”.

Of course, in modern circumstances – with that absolutely criminal and tragic war on the territory of Ukraine – the Russian regime needs a crisis in other areas that are European or sub-European, such as here, in the ‘suburbs’ of Europe. There is therefore an inevitable coincidence of interests in the Belgrade-Moscow relationship. What is striking, to a sometimes astonishing level, is the fact that the current tactics and the current diplomatic efforts, what Mr Escobar, Mr Chole and Mr Hill are saying and doing, coincide with interests which – even without our entering the waters of conspiracy theories and hidden scenarios – correspond quite logically, simply and unidirectionally to what is today the interest of the current Belgrade and Putin’s Moscow.

I repeat, there is one big question mark as to why the US is doing this, i.e. its current administration, and why, for example, Secretary of State Blinken, after months and months of not dealing with the Western Balkans, has suddenly addressed the ‘urbi et orbi’, in two drastic, one-dimensional public communications, regarding the deterioration of the situation and the potential crisis moments and escalation in the north of the Republic of Kosovo. This was unexpected – that such harsh messages were published from this headline, which were later interpreted and processed by Ambassador Hill in Belgrade and Ambassador Hovenier in Pristina.

The Geopost: In Montenegro, in the municipality of Zeta, there is an initiative for the ‘derecognition’ of Kosovo, launched by one of the speakers at the recent Vucic rally in Belgrade, Milan Knezevic. Now that the ‘hated’ Đukanović is out of power, is there a real possibility of Montenegro being excluded from Đukanović’s coordinates?

VLAHOVIĆ: Whenever we talk about Kosovo, I like to point out (which of course is neither diplomatically nor politically relevant, but personal): I was born in Đakovica, so I have a certain affinity for this country and its people. I am glad that this is the case, and when I talk about these things – it is always such a pleasure to talk about a situation that I, unlike many others who defend and ‘fight’ it so passionately, so vehemently and so fervently – I know what it is like, what it is like, how the people live there and how they have lived there, all Kosovars.

I have had a wide circle of friends in Kosovo all these years, and I would like to take this opportunity to point out that I was actively involved and I am glad that it is so – notwithstanding the fact that part of Montenegro is very angry with me and with the then generation of Montenegrin politicians – led by President Đukanović – that we recognised Kosovo’s independence. I was involved in that, including in the very idea of doing it together with our Macedonian friends, so that it would be a simultaneous recognition from Skopje and from Podgorica.

Let’s go back to your question: I don’t think it’s serious, so-called. “Derecognition” of Kosovo in Montenegro would, among other things, mean a complete defeat of the West, i.e. Euro-Atlantic policies in our country.

There is a tacit understanding in Montenegro itself, even among those who may be intimate, emotional, in different psychological and motivational situations, perhaps unhappy, unhappy and dissatisfied that Kosovo is independent – that this is not and will not be possible. I am not sure that the projections that Montenegro will stop recognising Kosovo are at all realistic.

Certainly, because of the political marketing and the serious desire that exists in one segment of Montenegrin politics for Montenegro to renounce its Euro-Atlantic orientation, to problematise or compromise its membership of NATO, this desire is coming out, now in the ‘extraterritorial’ Zeta.

These intentions – which are evolving and are not frivolous and benign – must be approached with great care, seriousness and determination. What you have in the Zeta municipality looks like the initial stages of a so-called “balvan revolution” in the areas of the Republic of Croatia and the beginning of a tragic and criminal war in the areas of the former Yugoslavia.

In addition, today, as we speak, you have the President of the municipality of Pljevlja, the northernmost municipality in Montenegro, making statements – absolutely incorrect and illegal statements. This is part of the vocabulary, part of the political faith and ideology and long-standing activity of those parties in Montenegro and political structures that are open to the Greater Serbia project, that are national-chauvinists and that do not recognise anything, not even about reason, the motives and content of the tragic wars on the territories of the former Yugoslavia, who do not even recognise the genocide in Srebrenica and, of course, do not even recognise the basic traits and characteristics of Montenegrin national, state and cultural identity and integrity. They belong to that segment of Montenegrin politics which clearly and openly repeats this.

The Montenegrin problem is that you have another segment in our politics where you have parties, politicians, political structures that do not say this openly, directly and publicly, and do not expose themselves about it, but leave it to this first group, namely the aforementioned Mr Knezevic, who, as far as I understand, many in Belgrade were surprised who this man is and what he is actually talking about. The worst way to understand things in life and in politics is when the consequences, to be honest, hit you on the head, and only then do you realise that perhaps certain political figures and groups and political ideas – in this particular case, coming from Montenegro – are not as famous, not as glorious and not as ‘pro-Serbian’ as you had previously thought.

I am saying that one group is on that side, with that open, big-Serbian national-chauvinist policy, and the other group is also heading in that direction, but with smaller, more peaceful and more restrained modulations of the same story.

This is the Montenegrin problem: that in our country, unfortunately, in recent years, a narrative has been created that this other group – which inherits the same values and the same ideas, therefore – is proclaiming itself to be civic – which is completely wrong – that it is placed at the political centre, that it is projected as a political structure that, after the elections, will ostensibly lead Montenegro towards the European Union. It is all rather dubious, unrealistic and equally unreliable, on a very similar level to the unreliability of the so-called Open Balkans, which, I repeat, is not a convincing political and regional projection.

The Geopost: Is this “civic” “political centre” Vucic’s favourite in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Montenegro, or is it Knežević and his circle who rallied at Vučić’s rally in Belgrade?

VLAHOVIĆ: It is less important which of the Montenegrin politicians is prepared to go to Belgrade and support Vučić at that anti-Vucic rally – which was a complete fiasco in terms of the context, the way it was held, the numbers and the way the attendees came, including in the messages, even the selected guests. Mr Dodik was from abroad, as was the Hungarian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Sijatro, which is a sad fact, although not surprising, given what Mr Orban and his diplomacy are doing, including the arm of that diplomacy called Oliver Varhelji, in the European Commission itself.

I repeat, someone is prepared to go to Belgrade and be famous or disgraced there. In that part of the political, ideological, cultural, intellectual segment to which I belong, this is an embarrassment for all of us in Montenegro, regardless of the fact that I have nothing to do with Mr Knezevic and his ideas.

Vucic, however, like in chess, has many favourites – he has one set of peasants, and in one situation one peasant is important to him, in another situation he will choose another peasant, in a third situation he will sacrifice one wing for another, and he will advance and advance as he is closest to it. And so on.

To be extremely plastic, I apologise for having to be ad hominem: I do not think that Mr Vucic’s influence on Mr Mandić and Mr Knežević is greater than Mr Vucic’s influence on Mr Abazović. I think that Mr Abazovic is influenced much more directly and on a day-to-day political level – and can and has influenced and will exercise that authority and power over him as long as Mr Abazovic is in a possible technical mandate and in an outgoing mandate, which, as we can see, takes months – and, on the other hand, his allies, the ‘leaders of the Serbian people in Montenegro’, who are behaving like a diaspora of something where Serbia is at the centre and Aleksandar Vucic is the ‘President of all Serbs’.

The Geopost: What is the influence of Belgrade on the new President of Montenegro, Jakov Milatović, and the Europe Now party?

VLAHOVIC: Europe Now is a movement that is not a defined party. They have more people who appear in the media, in the political space. Their economic programme “Europe Now 2.0” – it is a modern Montenegrin version of Mrs Dafina and Jezdimir Vasiljevic – is, with my apologies, extremely unreliable.

So you have a projection that is completely unrealistic, quite drastically cheap, and a populist economic mantra of substance and meaning, promoted by Mr Spajić.

What are relations with Belgrade? It is obvious that Mr Milatović, the new President of Montenegro, if you like, the accidental President of Montenegro, is much closer to President Vucic and the ‘Open Balkans’ projection than Mr Spajić, who, in his populist frenzy, still gives the impression of being a more pragmatic man – who would probably do nationally, culturally, ideologically what suits him at the moment – and who is interested above all in his own ‘interpretation of the deal’.

Of course, we will not forget that one of his “interpretations of the deal” is that, without a single document and without a decision of the Assembly, by a post festum decision, he took out a state loan of EUR 750 million, in a completely untimely and transparent procedure. He is a politician who has given up on himself and denied himself the possibility of being a presidential candidate, not Mr Milatović, by telling … untruths about his nationalities.

In essence: the great Serbian nationalism in Montenegro has long been playing to one party, one man, one political projection. They have extended their influence in Montenegro not only in the political sphere, but also in the media sphere, and they have extended it to the university. Remember that at the head of the university in Montenegro is a person who is a self-described Serbian-Russian person, but with a predominantly Russian influence, who is the owner of the obscure portal In4S, which is registered in the State of Delaware in the USA, and the company that formally owns this portal is in Havana, Cuba! So you have had a special operation under your nose for all these years, and you have, I repeat, a dispersed network, an archipelago of Russian and Serbian interests in Montenegro, both party and political, and in the educational, media and, of course, intelligence spheres.

The Geopost: How much of Montenegro today is actually a sovereign state and how much is part of the Serbian-Russian world?

VLAHOVIC: The whole Western Balkans is in upheaval and I would not say that we are sovereign in this or that percentage.

Montenegrin independence and sovereignty is under intense pressure. The Montenegrin identity as such and its specificity, cultural and historical and every other specificity is being called into question – to call into question our independence and sovereignty. It is all one package. What is important to say here is, of course, not new, but it is not a bad thing to repeat: the opponents of Montenegro, those who do not like the fact that Montenegro has restored its independence, still less the fact that Montenegro is a member of NATO, are aware, we are talking in this context, at this moment and for the foreseeable future, of what we can assume, that their central aim and purpose is not the formal abolition of Montenegrin independence, but to empty it as such, that Montenegro is a formally-legally independent state, officially sovereign, that it has its own insignia, flags, anthem, but at the same time it is a satellite of Serbia – whoever is in power in Serbia.

So it is not linked to Vucic as such, just as it was not linked to Mr Koštunica, nor to the late Milosevic, but it is linked to Serbia as such. This syndrome exists in that part of Montenegrin politics which is called pro-Serbian or pro-Serbian (this is not a reproach, nor is it a label that we put on ourselves, they define themselves as such). Their projection is to be with Serbia. That is the beginning and the end of this policy.

We want to be with Serbia, but as good neighbours, as two independent countries, as friends. And friendship means telling a friend when he is wrong. So: not with every Serbia, not with any Serbia – and that is our paradigm for Montenegrin-Serbian relations.

It is repeated and it is true today in one form in the modern era, and sometimes it may not look as good as it did in an earlier time, but you do not have a relevant political force in Montenegro that would advocate some antagonism with Serbia.

The central issue here is – was and remains – as in past times, tragic and ugly times, about which we have never learned anything, such as the period from 1918 to 1921, and then to 1929 and to 1941.

There is no political projection here of antagonising hostility with Serbia, there is a political projection here that we want to be together with Serbia as two independent states, to be side by side and together with others in the region in a way that would confirm to promote and improve the independence of Serbia as such, its independence and sovereignty, on the one hand, and Montenegro’s sovereignty and our independence as well.

What is the difference and the turning point in Montenegro today, yesterday and the day before yesterday, was and remains precisely what Montenegro serves in this communication with Serbia, what are Montenegrin interests, are they genuine, autonomous, do they have their reason even without Serbia. Or do we exist only because of Serbia and only with Serbia and only in accordance with what Serbia wants.

I remind you today that this is the essence of all the divisions in Montenegro. From this division, you can later derive variations on this theme and specific differences within one bloc and another.

So, to return to one of your questions, who is now the main actor in the interests of the Aleksandar Vucic regime in Montenegro: there are different levels, different actors, different cronies, different representatives who have one common denominator – and that is to give them the independence and sovereignty of Montenegro as neither a motivation for their political activity nor as the purpose and goal of their political activity.

To this interpretation of Montenegrin political reality and the justification of Montenegrin political and entire history on this side, they will always respond that it is an exaggeration, that they are sovereigntists – nationalists. But this is the Montenegrin reality and the present, which will remain for the foreseeable future an important turning point and the most important difference in the Montenegrin political space. It is also reflected today in the context of the forthcoming elections, the pre-election campaign, where you can build both in terms of implementation and content how a political structure or a political personality relates to this problem.

No matter what – the current election campaign is dominated by the so-called “economic themes” and that in one, I would say, not good enough and effective answer to the crude populism promoted by Mr Spajić, about some unusually high salaries – without explaining where in Slovenia the funds for this kind of welfare come from – for the next few years in Montenegro.

The Geopost: How do you see the current “anti-violence” protests in Belgrade in Montenegro?

VLAHOVIĆ: The Serbian government should be elected and replaced by Serbian citizens. Of course, it sounds simplistic and general – but it is true.
I belong to the part of Montenegro that supports the protests against violence, which are at the same time a kind of impulse, a stimulus and a democratic and civic reflex in the country of Serbia.

I belong to the political worldview that would like to see a democratic government that respects Serbia itself as well as its Serbian neighbours, that treats Montenegro as an equal, friendly country, that does not treat Montenegro as a territory.

So: a democratic, normal, European Serbia is in the interests of its citizens and of the whole region to which we belong. More than that, and better than that, Serbia should not get from here in Montenegro – because Montenegro cannot solve Serbia’s problems.

I remember those days when we gained our independence and managed to do so in a democratic and civilised way, without a single casualty or conflict, which is a great achievement of our political generation, which we do not yet fully realise how important and good it is.

One of the reasons for our attempt to restore Montenegrin independence and state sovereignty was that we did not want to solve Serbian problems, that Montenegro did not exist to be sacrificed or exploited or involved in solving Serbian issues, including that by being in a state of union with Serbia, we were ‘contributing to the democratisation of Serbia’. This is a task for Serbia itself and for its citizens, its politicians, its cultural, media and all other workers.

What is interesting here is that you do not have the support of any of the parties or political figures in Montenegro who belong to these so-called new ‘civic’, ‘centrist’ parties – which are now dominated by the Europe movement – none of whom have supported the protests! And they won’t.

Precisely because of what I said earlier, you have this difference, Mr Mandić, Mr Knežević and some others will fervently support Vucic because he is, for God’s sake, the President of all Serbs and the head of the Serbian world to which they belong, and these others are doing the same thing as they think, but they know that it is unpopular in the West, and at the same time, it is unpopular among their electorate and among their voters to say anything against Vucic. So they are in a kind of trap, which is why we are all suffering in Montenegro – because of this kind of vassal attitude, vassal consciousness and vassal projection, which is being promoted in various ways by the parties of the former DF and the Europe Now movement. and Mr Abazović and his structures, and Mr Aleksa Bečić of the Democrats.

Which reminds me: in Montenegro there is also now a party organisation, the Union of Communists of Montenegro, and they have supported Mr Bečić and Mr Abazović and their coalition, saying that Mr Bečić is in fact the Che Guevara of Montenegro?!

This is completely insane, it is untrue, Ernesto Che Guevara and Mr Aleksa Bečić. I was thinking in one tweet about which communist I could compare Mr Bečić to, from rabid revolutionaries and innocent victims, to apparatchiks, Stalinists, servants, converts and followers of the Soviet Kremlin – and I remembered the one, perhaps the best comparison for Mr Bečić – Vasil Bilak.

You see, in 1968, when the Soviets invaded the Czech Republic, Vasil Bilak was one of the two, and the second in line, who accepted the Soviet dictate and served the then USSR in order to maintain control over what was then Czechoslovakia.

Montenegro is therefore on Vasil Bilak’s level, not only through funny and sad “parallels” such as this.

We are under the domination of mediocrity, mediocrity, political groupings, political personalities and projections that lack elementary knowledge and skills, that lack finesse and vision.

It is possible that Mr Bečić and his friends will not be angry with me for comparing him to Vasil Bilak, because they probably have no idea who this man was.

And this is, in fact, one of the important dimensions of the great problem and crisis in which Montenegro finds itself today./The Geopost/