Peci: The war in Ukraine has raised doubts about Russia’s claim to its status as a global superpower

The director of KIPRED Institute, Lulzim Peci, in an interview given to The Geopost spoke about the war in Ukraine, its consequences at the global and regional level, how much this war will affect the acceleration of integration processes for the Balkan countries, including Kosovo and what will be Serbia’s position after last week’s elections.

Below you can find the full interview:

The Geopost: Russian aggression against Ukraine has entered its second month, followed by crimes of Russian troops and heroic resistance of the Ukrainian army and population. How do you see the duration of this war and its consequences at the global level, and especially at the regional and Balkan level?

Peci: First of all, this war has greatly questioned Russia’s claim to its status as a global superpower, with a tendency to create an area of ​​influence and subjugation in its immediate neighborhood. This aggression has highlighted the Kremlin’s lack of modern conventional capabilities to successfully lead a war in the region, with a much smaller state, both in terms of human resources and armaments, in which case the veil of myth of conventional Russian military power has also been torn down. If Russia did not possess nuclear weapons, in this state, it would be a power without significant relevance in international relations.

The duration of this war will depend on the military objectives of both Moscow and Kiev. If Russia withdraws the entire territory of Ukraine, except Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk, and then seeks a ceasefire, I think the war will stop soon enough. But in this case, Russia will try to play the scenario of South Ossetia and Abkhazia for these two regions, and at the same time considering Crimea as an integral part of it. Through this option, Russia will try to break the unity of the West and demand the lifting of sanctions, to give talks a “chance”, while consolidating its presence in these occupied territories of Ukraine and the establishment of a frozen conflict, with unforeseen duration. If the West waives sanctions and allows Russia to implement this option, then it will legitimize the unpunished disruption of the international order, which Russia wants in the long run.

On the other hand, if Kiev’s goal in the current situation becomes the return of the occupied territories of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea, the prolongation of the war can hardly be predicted.

The consequences of this war at the global level, will be mostly of economic nature, but also political. I think that a considerable number of the remaining supporters of Russia will change their position in time, first of all because of geopolitical calculations, but also because of the loss of power and especially the credibility of the Kremlin in the eyes of the international community. As far as the Balkans are concerned, this war will limit the Russian influence so far, but here we must be especially careful of the Russian subversive elements, which can also challenge the state establishments in the region, and thus the peace and security, and that mostly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo.

The Geopost: Despite the solidarity that the democratic world, including Kosovo, has with Ukraine, some analysts say that this situation can be used for the benefit of the processes that interest the Balkan countries, including Kosovo, especially in terms of accelerating the integration process in EU and NATO, as well as the acute finding of mechanisms that guarantee security and peace in the region. What do you think about this?

Peci: The world we live in is definitely not the same as before the Russian aggression in Ukraine. This situation offers similar possibilities, but not of the same amplitude as the beginning of the Cold War in the late 1940s and early 1950s for the sealing of the West in relation to Russia. This situation has definitely created a momentum for the accelerated integration of the region into the EU, as well as Kosovo, as the only aspiring country in the region to NATO, to conclude the chapter on regional security and amputation of Russian influence. On the other hand, the increase of NATO presence in Albania and the presence of KFOR in Kosovo, represent a deterrent force to elements that have ambitions of armed conflict in the region. In this regard, Kosovo’s path towards accelerated NATO membership goes through a three-dimensional path, through Washington, the dialogue with Serbia and the four unrecognized countries of the Alliance, which are interconnected.

The Geopost: National and presidential elections were held in Serbia on Sunday, and again Aleksandar Vucic and his party won convincingly. It is known that Serbia has been reluctant to join EU sanctions against Russia, and on the other hand does not give up its intention to become an EU member. Has the time come for Serbia to be unable to sit in two chairs and which of them would Serbia choose according to you?

Peci: I think it is the last time for Serbia to be informed that I can no longer sit in two chairs, especially after the unprovoked Russian aggression in Ukraine. I think that the pressure on Belgrade will increase, and Vucic will try to get the most out of the eventual change of his attitude. Belgrade is currently playing with the knife-blade policy in relation to Russia and the West, backing UN resolutions on the one hand, presenting itself as a factor of regional peace and stability, and not putting sanctions on Russia on the other hand. I think that Belgrade will continue this policy, trying to create a room for maneuver, which will also depend on the end of the war in Ukraine.

Here, now, must come the role of Kosovo, to challenge this policy of Serbia, not only being on the side of the West against Russia, which is a more natural thing, but revitalizing the lost partnership with Washington and Brussels, as well as exerting itself as a factor of peace and stability, both internal and regional. Thus, Kosovo would remove this trump card from Vucic, and would create more favorable conditions for dialogue with Serbia. After the presidential elections in France, the first round of which will be held next week, there will be no elections in the Quint capitals for a considerable time, and this time, Kosovo must use it to reach an agreement with Serbia, which would pave the way for recognition by the four NATO countries, and consequently the international consolidation of Kosovo statehood. Fortunately, for accession to both the EU and NATO, Kosovo does not need membership in the UN, where Russia has the right to veto the Security Council, a body responsible and with the exclusive right to nominate new members to this organization.