Oxford professor: Russia manipulates nationalism in Europe for propaganda and chaos

Russia is exploiting rising nationalism in Europe to influence and destabilize the Western Balkans and beyond, says OXFORD university professor Jennifer Cassidy. In an interview with The Geopost, she focuses on Russia’s disinformation strategies and the role artificial intelligence plays in this regard, reflecting on the consequences of these dynamics globally, including in other sensitive regions such as the Middle East.

Cassidy addresses the connections between the conflicts, the cost-of-living crisis, and how Russia is exploiting the situation to spread its propaganda.

“I think that the invasion of Ukraine has had a very destabilizing effect on the Western Balkans… Countries like Serbia are more connected to Russia and this division within the Western Balkans has an even more destabilizing effect on the region and the entire continent. We are witnessing different types of destabilizations, from the cost-of-living crisis to political issues to alliances with Russia or the West… So the geopolitical landscape is changing and we cannot predict when and how the crisis will end, but however it ends, we will see a new geopolitical landscape emerge with the US election. That’s going to be a key factor in how things go,” says Irish technology researcher Jennifer Cassidy.

While providing an analysis of the destabilizing effects that the invasion of Ukraine has brought, the university professor underlines the importance of ending Russia’s war of aggression as soon as possible. This, she says, is to prevent potentially catastrophic consequences and the need for a firm stance in the face of growing threats.

Full interview:

Well, I think with the invasion of Ukraine, with the Western Balkans, it has had a very destabilizing effect. Not only in Western Europe, and of course Ukraine, but now we’re seeing in Western Balkans because they are neither now truly extended into the EU, but also what we’re seeing in particular with Serbia, for example, other countries being more closely allied with Russia. So this division within the Western Balkans is having an even more destabilizing effect on the region. And across the entire continent we’re seeing different types of destabilization, from cost of living crisis to political issues to alliances with Russia or alliances with the West.

So it’s a very, very changing geopolitical landscape and what we’re going to see with this ends, when it ends, how it ends, we can not look into the future, but however that is going to happen, we’ll see certainly a different new geopolitical landscape emerge alongside with the American election. That’s going to play a key factor into how we see this playing out.

This issue of nationalism is nothing new to the 21st century, 20th century, 19th century, this is all being the precedent to some major world wars, World War I, World War II, this is what we want to stop with this rise of nationalism. But alongside the rise of nationalism, what we always see throughout history is a cost of living crisis. So particularly, why (Ukraine and Russia) this needs to be solved very, very soon is because it has a huge knock-on effect on the cost of living crisis throughout the whole of Europe. And that history has shown us for the last 200 years that it has a direct correlation with the rise of nationalism. And so what we’re seeing is this rise of nationalism, Hungary as you mentioned, with the European Parliament election, Germany, like states that we didn’t think we’re going to see far right nationalism in our lifetime again, are rising up. And then in this case, what Russia is doing is taking advantage, seeing its vacuum and coming in. So it’s highly disturbing. And it is not a good direction that we’re heading in but it’s not something that the EU nor any country be a domestic in that in the EU for example, should be burying their head in and thinking it will just go away it’s not going to go away we have to deal with it head-on and make sure I have policies and deterrence for this so it’s nothing that’s just going to pass because it has some disastrous consequences as we’ve seen throughout history and I have full belief that this will be the same again if it’s not stopped.
So yeah, as I mentioned Russia is one of the, I say greatest in not a good way, but one of the greatest strategists of disinformation and we saw this as far as far back as the 2008 Election where Obama actually expelled eight Russian diplomats from the US under the Vienna Convention of diplomatic relations, which a lot of people don’t know about it, but he has to expel them for interference in it due to social media. So that was the first time there was an impact or there was a repercussion for that. But since then, Russia has only gained so much power for its disinformation tactic and its tools and it’s done in so many formats, bots, it’s done in covert operations, it’s done through proxy states, it’s done through different, as you said telegram signal. They are experts at creating different strategic narratives and that’s my work that I’ve been following for nearly 16 years, since 21 November 2013, since Ukraine was assigned the extension into the EU. So they’re (Russia) masters at this. And what we should be doing is trying to keep on top of it because it’s changing so fast, and particularly with the introduction of artificial intelligence, which is now my key research area. This is a whole new ballgame, and it moves so fast, and it is very difficult to keep up with the pace of artificial intelligence and how people are using it, because you not only have to learn how people are using it, you have to go a step further to learn how to stop it. So that’s going to be a key challenge in the future.

I came back to my room last night to see that this had happened and I spent three hours just watching, could not believe that Iran had finally done this since I think it was 250 at that time of watching ballistic missiles towards the Iron Dome. Obviously, I’m not a diplomat anymore, but I am Irish. I stand very much with the Irish foreign policy, which is not the same as everyone’s foreign policy here.

But for me, just looking at what happened with Iran, now we are with the key, key players, and it is so beyond dangerous. That’s not a very academic term, so beyond dangerous, but it is terrifying that Iran is now in the mix.
You can’t expect, with Israel to have another land incursion to Lebanon, and for someone not to retaliate, but Iran to retaliate?
Let’s bear in mind that the US, one of their greatest adversaries, including Putin is around.

This is going to have, it already has had a major destabilizing fact on Middle East, but, this is a terrifying situation and one that I personally will just say it’s worried is a diluted word, but I don’t want to say let’s wait and see I think we need to oppose Policymakers as journalists and everything, I think we need to speak our mind, speak the truth, make sure the facts are all done, but call out people who need to be called out, get the strategic narrative with the truth out there. It’s not the time to be complacent, it’s not the time to be backing people who are breaking international law, because, literally, the stability of not only one region but possibly an outbreak of a global war depends on it./The Geopost/