Mujanovic: Russian influence in the Balkans is still present, Dodik and Vucic are the most important collaborators

“The situation in the Balkans is generally unstable, due to the wrong direction of their countries,” said political scientist and analyst from Bosnia and Herzegovina Jasmin Mujanovic in an interview with The Geopost.

He further adds that Russian influence is present in the Balkans, precisely because of the allies it finds in these countries, and emphasizes Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Vucic as the most important collaborators of Russia, although as for Vucic he added that he is pragmatic and will shift the focus of foreign policy from Russia to China, at least for a period.

As for the war in Ukraine and its impact on the Balkans, Mujanovic says that at the moment it is not known exactly which direction this war is going, but “if Ukraine is successful in its defense, as it is so far, then it will significantly change at least the tactical thinking of these Russian allies in this area”.

In the region, he states “the chances of a formal invasion are minimal”

And for the future of the Balkans and its European integration, he says it is unrealistic to expect any EU enlargement, specifically in the Western Balkans, for sure in the next 10 years, or even in the next 15 years.

For Kosovo, the priority is to change the policy of the 5 EU members, which have not yet officially recognized Kosovo’s independence. At least 3 or 4 of them, which, as he states, could be achieved in the next 5 or 10 years.

“Of course, strong diplomatic activity is needed here, but these are realistic goals. And if that were done, then the door would open for Kosovo for eventual NATO membership, which is for Kosovo and BiH, I would say much more important than EU membership “, concluded Mujanovic.

Below you can read the whole interview:

The Geopost: How do you see the political situation in the Balkans, in our countries?

Mujanovic: I think that the situation is generally unstable, and certainly worse than it was five or ten years ago, collectively all countries in the region, at least in my opinion, are going in the wrong direction, it is extremely visible in BiH, but also in Serbia, which is slipping more and more de facto into autocracy under the regime of Aleksandar Vucic. We already know the political circumstances in BiH regarding the secessionist attempts and moves of the regime of Milorad Dodik, but also the alliance he maintains with the HDZ party and Dragan Covic. Also I would like to emphasize the extremely bad policy and negative policy of official Zagreb towards BiH, we also unfortunately see the continuation of liberal tendencies in Slovenia, the political crisis in Montenegro is also deeper and it is uncertain which direction the country is going and then of course we have similar dynamics in North Macedonia, we will see what will happen in the next elections, but it seems very possible that VMRO-DPMNE will return to power and then the question arises whether Nikola Gruevski returns to power, the situation in Albania is also not great, there are also extremely problematic tendencies regarding the government of Edi Rama, his and liberal tendencies, so collectively it does not look very good, and at this very moment in which we find ourselves now, it seems that the situation may have stabilized somewhat, but all the collective dynamics, all the collective resistance of all individual political actors, i.e. the most negative political actors in the region, are striving for very bad scenarios.

The Geopost: Let’s go back in history, because we often talk about Russian influence in the Balkans now, but Russian influence in the Balkans has lasted for centuries, especially in Serbia, how do you see that influence now, and in which country in the Balkans has the most influence?

Mujanovic: Well, of course, it depends on what we mean when we say Russian influence, so Russia, of course, has influence throughout Eastern Europe. However, when we say Russian influence, if we mean the places where Russia finds allies, where it finds itself among the local political actors of the party and individuals who willingly cooperate with them, there are really only a few places. The most important collaborator in the region, I would say, is Milorad Dodik, at least the most radical, extremist, then of course we also have the regime of Aleksandar Vucic, and if it seems that at this moment the government in Belgrade is a little scared, in terms of how negative the reaction is The West, as far as everything Russia is doing at the moment in Ukraine, is aggression against Ukraine.

in terms of how negative the reaction from the West is regarding everything that Russia is doing at the moment in Ukraine, the aggression against Ukraine.

It is obvious that Serbia has realized to some extent that they were wrong in the tactical and strategic sense of how close they were to the Kremlin a few years ago, and now they are trying to disguise it a little, even if that cooperation continues in reality. We also have some Serbian nationalist movements and actors in Montenegro, who are also close to Russia, and we have also seen in recent years that some ties have been established between Russia and some Croatian nationalist actors, especially in BiH, and especially Dragan Covic and the HDZ party, but for example yesterday we also saw that the Prime Minister of Croatia Andrej Plenkovic accused the President of the Republic of Croatia Zoran Milanovic of being like a Russian player. So, there is a very wide network, where we can also mention Janez Jansa and some other people, there are a lot of them. And then there is another dynamic, what the goals really are and what is the point of that Russian engagement in the Western Balkans. And here we know that in fact their primary strategic goal is to prevent the expansion of the NATO Alliance to this area. Of course, that is why BiH and Kosovo are extremely important to them, because BiH and Kosovo are the places that should logically be the next members of the Atlantic Alliance, at least as far as the Western Balkans are concerned. Of course, Finland and Sweden are expected to be the next members of NATO in this period, but at least as far as our region is concerned, they are Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, and of course because Moscow is most concerned about the circumstances in BiH. and Kosovo.

The Geopost: We talked about Serbia and Vucic, is Vucic closer to the West or Putin, how do you comment on that?

Mujanovic: I think we have to say that Aleksandar Vucic is pragmatic, and in that sense I will say that at this moment we will probably see a period where the focus of Serbian foreign policy will shift from Moscow to Beijing, so that Serbia will really look for a stronger alliance in China in this moment. However, as far as your question between the West and Russia is concerned, of course, all the ideological and political focus of Serbian politics is on Russia. The fact that Serbia and Vucic at the same time maintain and nurture a special perception among Western countries on their part is very smart, but we must not think and be convinced in what I would call the play, that in any essential sense, politically and ideologically, that this Serbia of Aleksandar Vucic is oriented towards the West. No, it is specifically the orientation towards Russia, towards that project, not only of the Russian world, but in general that concept of spreading autocracy and liberalism to the whole world, which we see through the activities not only of Russia, but also of China.

The Geopost: We also have a problem in Ukraine, which has been in aggression by Russia for almost two months now. How does this affect the Balkans and Europe in particular?

Mujanovic: It is difficult to answer, because at this moment it is not known exactly in which direction this war is going. On the one hand, it may be a bit horrible and scary to say, but unfortunately there is some good news for the Western Balkans in this conflict, and the good news is that Ukrainians are behaving extremely well, leading an extremely smart and serious campaign against Russia, defending their country, defending their territory in an extremely good way, tactically, strategically, in every possible way, as far as these military operations are concerned, everything seems to be going in the best possible way in these circumstances. However, we must still recognize that Russia is a military superpower, and we do not know exactly whether this way of conflict will continue, if it continues like this, we can expect that Ukraine will win this war in every possible sense of the word. And then the question arises, what exactly will happen in Russia, will we actually see the fall of Vladimir Putin’s regime on the basis of this catastrophic campaign he is leading on the ground. However, on the other hand, if the situation changed and if we saw some stronger offensives on the part of Russia, then it could have an extremely negative impact on this region. Because we must remember that all possible irrelevant consequences of this conflict in the Western Balkans come from exclusive actors here on the ground who are close to Russia. So these are people like Aleksandar Vucic, Milorad Dodik, some individuals in Montenegro and so on. So, if Russia wins on the ground and if it is perceived in the international community as a successful military power, it will of course encourage their poltrons and satellites in this area. However, if Ukraine is successful in its defense, then that will significantly change at least the tactical thinking of those Russian allies, at least in this area.

The Geopost: Is there any danger in the north of Kosovo, from an invasion or an incident, coordinated with Russia, of course?

Mujanovic: Well, I would say that there is, although I would say that the danger of formal invasion is relatively minimal, same as in BiH, realistically thinking here of the activities of the Republic of Serbia and their support for the Republika Srpska, at least as far as that is concerned the chances are minimal. So a formal invasion has minimal chances. However, the circumstances, the opportunity and the chances for some kind of incident, where they would see some kind of conflict and unfortunately maybe even some people would die is possible, which would of course be catastrophic.

The Geopost: Is there any hope for the Balkans, for European integration, what role should the EU finally take, is that possible soon?

Mujanovic: I think that as far as the issue of European enlargement is concerned, it is more or less a dead story, even if it has recently become active in the context of all this that is happening in Ukraine. I think it is unrealistic to expect any EU enlargement, specifically in the Western Balkans, for sure in the next 10 years, I would say even in the next 15 years. So, in any biological political sense, that people who are alive today can concretely wait to experience that enlargement, I really don’t think that will happen, because the political environment and political perspectives within the union are not in that direction. So we can put that aside. However, there are some other goals, which are much more realistic and concrete, at least as far as the real political circumstances at the moment are concerned. So, for BiH, I think that the most important strategic priority is to seek membership within NATO and that this can be done, in my opinion, in the next 10 years. For Kosovo, of course, the priority must be to change the policy of these 5 EU members, which have not yet officially recognized Kosovo’s independence. At least 3 or 4 of them, that could be achieved in the next 5 or 10 years. Of course, strong diplomatic activity is needed here, but these are realistic goals. And if that were done, then the door would open for Kosovo for eventual NATO membership, which is for Kosovo and BiH, I would say much more important than EU membership. So these are some big, but realistic goals. But this is not realistic for the EU for now, although of course we should continue all these processes of reform and democratization, which are certainly necessary in the transformation of our societies, although the ultimate membership in the EU as a formal organization at this time is probably not on the agenda.