Well-known journalist Fatjona Mejdini in an interview with Geopost spoke about Russian influence in the Balkans, how much this influence has faded after the start of the war in Ukraine, Serbia’s friendship with Russia and its stance between Russia and the European Union, Russian media propaganda in Albania, the assistance of the United States of America in identifying and combating this propaganda.
She also spoke about the latest regional initiative Open Balkans, with special emphasis on the position of Montenegro, namely the Montenegrin Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic, but also other countries in the region.
You can read the full interview below:
TheGeopost: How do you see Russian influence in Europe and especially in the Balkans, has anything changed since the start of the war in Ukraine?
Mejdini: It is important to note that all the rhetoric that has developed over the years about the Russian threat in Eastern Europe did not in fact turn out to be empty rhetoric but a real threat. What we saw that happened in Ukraine showed us once again how dangerous Russia can become in relations with its neighbors or with the countries of the region with which Russia is considered to have had a historic relationship.
For this reason, I think that the war in Ukraine was a kind of strong alarm bell that had sounded for a long time but many did not believe it, did not think it up to this stage and as I said above, this war showed us once again the fact that The Russian threat in the region did not seem to be just rhetoric, but it was something real which they unfortunately experienced in the worst possible way and continue to be experienced by the Ukrainian people up to this moment.
Now in terms of Russian influence in Europe and especially in the Balkans, of course Russia considers the Balkans as its area of influence and in this context has always been engaged in developments in the Balkans, has always had an active role and I think it has sought to prioritize its interests.
If anything has changed since the beginning of the war I cannot say, I think that at the moment Russia is very focused on the crisis in Ukraine and I do not think that it has on its agenda the Balkan issues as much as it has been in the past, because I think that Russia is also in a big play already and is being put under tremendous pressure in terms of the whole situation in Ukraine, and I think that up to this moment or during these months how long the war is going on in Ukraine, Russia has had some kind of strategy or has had the time or opportunity to make any strategy for the Balkan region
TheGeopost: Knowing that Serbia is still a friend of Russia even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, do you think that Russia can use this friendship to launch a possible conflict in the Balkans, or is there enough certainty in this regard?
Mejdini: I do not really think. I think that despite Russia’s friendship with Serbia, the idea of starting the conflict from Russia in the Balkans still seems to me a distant thing, especially after the increased attention of all factors, including the EU, the US and all international factor to Russia’s actions and attitudes.
I do not think that Russia can have, at least in the near or medium term, any kind of power or opportunity to launch a conflict in the Balkans because that would then escalate and could be the beginning of a new world war, so I think this is a step that does not even cross the Russian mind, because the Balkans have increased attention to the Russian threat, so I think that the governments themselves have begun to take these measures, to understand what Russian propaganda can bring. And it’s not only the Balkan governments that have started to take these measures, but also the Balkan allies such as the US and the EU today are more aware of the Russian threat and I think that with all that what happened in Ukraine, would make it impossible to ignite a new conflict.
TheGeopost: How do you interpret Serbia’s recent behavior, its stance between Russia and Europe?
Mejdini: Russia has for centuries been considered a close ally of the Slavs in the Balkans and, more directly, of the Serbs. We must not forget the historical relations that the two countries have had with each other and the diplomatic favors that Russia has consistently done to Serbia.
So, I think it would be a bit naive to think that Serbia would have a kind of tough stance against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, because I think the friendship and the many ties between these two countries would not allow that, as it seems clear that they are not doing it, because Serbia owes Russia in many essential moments of the existence of the Serbian state.
Since the creation of this state, Russia has played a very big role, starting from the ambitions of this state in the region, then the issue of Kosovo, where Russia has always supported Serbia and has ensured that Kosovo does not advance with its agenda to the UN or other bodies, so I think it would be naive, as I mentioned it to make us think that suddenly the Serbian government or the Serbian people would severely condemn what is happening in Ukraine.
And therefore I think that what we have seen in Serbia is a kind of dichotomy, we have a large part of public opinion, which supports Russia precisely because of these historical favors and ties that Russia has constantly done to Serbia and we have then a perhaps smaller part, many times smaller, which sees this kind of connection with Russia as a threat, but on the other hand also from a moral point of view condemns what Russia is doing and has done in Ukraine.
Now, the Serbian dichotomy with foreign policy has always been present, as I said, despite the ties with Russia, Serbia has always sought to be a member of the European Union and to play this double game between Russia and the European Union. In this context, I think it belongs to other instances, it’s up to the European Union to achieve and really understand the goals of the Serbian government in this kind of dichotomy that they have shown for centuries.
TheGeopost: Russian propaganda has been in the region for a long time. Are there such elements in the media in Albania, how much is this noticed and how much is fought?
Mejdini: I can say that due to the close ties that Albania has with the US, Albania has always had an increased attention to Russian propaganda and therefore I can say that compared to other countries in the region, in Albania we do not have had that kind of increased propaganda that we have seen in other countries like Serbia, Montenegro or even Northern Macedonia or other countries in the region.
I think that of course there were elements and there are elements of Russian propaganda which are filtered in the media in Albania, but I think these are minor as impacts and I think that the media in Albania has played a good role, at least the traditional media by staying away from Russian propaganda, having this awareness of the dangers that this propaganda could bring. So I think this propaganda is very small in Albania.
Russia has always had great difficulties to penetrate the Albanian media in order to become influential also because of its ties with the EU, but especially with the US and the increased care that the US has had towards such elements as media in Albania and this has made the work of Russia very difficult. I think that the relevant instances are interested and closely follow the infiltration of Russian propaganda in the Albanian media and I think that they have all the opportunities and all the awareness to fight this phenomenon, if they see it appear.
TheGeopost: Montenegro has recently elected a new minority government. Do you think that this has eliminated the danger that began to be felt last year from the Russian-Serbian influence in this country?
Mejdini: Of course I think the new minority government that has been formed in Montenegro is a government which is giving Montenegro a pro-US and pro-EU accent. It is true that there was also a danger to this country from the previous government and from the ties it had with Russian-Serbian elements and the great influence that these two states were thought to have in Montenegro, through the government that was formed before, if now with the formation of the new government the danger is gone.
I think this risk has been reduced, but I cannot say that it has been eliminated because the new minority government created may have a duration of one or two years and of course another government will come to Montenegro and of course that these pro-Serbian and pro-Russian forces are in a good position in this country, I do not know if they will be able to form a majority in the future, but I think that absolutely the Russian threat in Montenegro will remain present because of the strong interests that Russia has had and has towards Montenegro, economic, political, ethnic interests. It is very important in fact to emphasize all these, and with a year or two in power as much as possible be this government, the risk can be reduced, I think the work should continue and there should always be increased attention to Russian influence in Montenegro.
TheGeopost: The President of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic during his two-day visit to Kosovo a few days ago, among other things, declared against the “Open Balkans” initiative. Meanwhile, we have the position of three other leaders in the region who have declared themselves in favor of this initiative, but recently also the new Montenegrin Prime Minister Mr. Dritan Abazovic does not seem to mind. How do you see the attitudes of the leaders and what is your opinion on this initiative?
Mejdini: Knowing what Dritan Abazovic represents, I think that as a leader and with what he has shown, in principle he would not be against the Open Balkans, as you say, but of course I think he is still careful to see how it will act in this context, is still taking time and thinking about this initiative, which by saying right after the war in Ukraine has become even more difficult to support and to be argued and justified by the Balkan partners, who are part of this initiative, but on the other hand I think that the issue of the Open Balkans is a delicate issue, which has arguments for and against, it is not a simple matter.
As an argument in favor of this initiative I would like to give the fact that it is essentially positive that the Balkan leaders come together and decide that they should cooperate with each other, because this is for the benefit of their citizens and for the benefit of progress of their countries. If they have gathered before because they have been forced by other forces, now they seem to have started another kind of maturity to understand that cooperation should be something that should interest them themselves and therefore should contribute, but on the other hand given what is called the “elephant in the room” Serbia’s relations with Kosovo, of course this initiative becomes difficult for Kosovo and of course Kosovo seeks its own guarantees of how it can be represented as equal in this initiative and since it does not see this possibility, it opposes this initiative. It is delicate, I do not think there is a Yes or a No, we know very well why Bosnia does not join this initiative, this is due to the fact that things there are very divided and there are two main forces that are in competition in this state and this often does not allow Bosnia to have positions, as it has so far not recognized Kosovo’s independence unfortunately, on the other hand we have had a supportive position of Northern Macedonia, Albania and Serbia, but certainly Montenegro would be a big question mark in this process, we also have one that is completely against, Kosovo.
It is worth noting that this is a process that we cannot understand in these moments 100% what will bring us or whether to continue or not. I think that cooperation in principle is necessary and indispensable in the region. Forms of cooperation then can be very different, but I understand that Kosovo requires more guarantees in this initiative as I understand in these moments that Dritan Abazovic, knowing how delicate this issue is in the Balkans, is still taking time to decide whether Montenegro should join this initiative, but I, as I said at the beginning, would not be surprised if he would embrace this initiative and join it.
/TheGeopost