Jovanovic: Serbia’s influence in Montenegro is being done through various organizations and the media

The changes taking place today in Montenegro are related to the great radicalization in society and the growth of nationalism, along with, unfortunately, the polarization that is deep and can be seen in absolutely all spheres of society, said in an interview for The Geopost, Montenegrin analyst Milan Jovanovic.

He does not see the issue of Montenegrin citizenship as problematic, which according to him is irreversible, but what is reflected in the current division in Montenegrin society, according to him, is the issue of the existence of Montenegrin identity, culture, language and nation.

Jovanovic says that the influence of Serbia and Russia in Montenegro is growing, while the influence of the West is fading, which is also noticeable in the latest information about the compatibility of the previous government of Abazovic with EU policy. As he adds, as far as the new government and Prime Minister Spajic are concerned, it remains to be seen how long he will resist, considering that the government is in its first days and has within its structures the man with a pro-Serbian and pro-Russian biography, the speaker of the Parliament, Andrija Mndiq.

In Montenegro, the direct influence of President Vučić is also noticeable, he emphasizes, based on the staggering investments made by the Government of Serbia for pro-Serbian organizations for the population census process that will begin in Montenegro this week. There is also great interference through the Russian media and their propaganda that operates in Montenegro through Serbia, Jovanović said, among other things.

Full interview

The Geopost: The political topic in Montenegro, the new government has been formed, the speaker of the Parliament of Montenegro is Mandić, who is pro-Russian. How do you see this new situation in Montenegro?

I think that, if I may say so, the changes that are happening today in Montenegro have to do with the great radicalization in society and the growth of nationalism, together with, unfortunately, the polarization that is deep and absolutely visible in all spheres of society. That division that exists within the state itself has not so much to do with the relations of citizens and government towards Montenegrin citizenship. I think this is a rounded question, framed and which cannot be questioned. However, what is reflected in the current division in Montenegrin society is the question of the existence of the Montenegrin identity, culture, language and nation, and is manifested through attempts at historical revisionism, which is in serious momentum.

The impression is created that the influence of Serbia and Russia is growing, while one can somehow understand and get the impression from the other side that the political West has never had less power in Montenegro. And finally, here I will highlight one piece of information, the public recently received devastating information about the compliance of the previous government of Abazovic with EU policy. Specifically, when we talk about the new constellation of political forces and the newly formed government, it has just been formed and that it is difficult to give assessments, because at this moment they may seem a little premature. And it is not known how long this new government will last, whether it will have a full mandate of 4 years, and what is certain and what is defined somewhere in that political agreement is that after a year the Democratic Front will formally enter the government, that is, they will receive certain ministries. Now, specifically in this government there are, what we can talk about, is that there are at least two fundamental problems in this government right now. The first is the party’s division of portfolios and more personnel solutions in the position of ministers without the necessary knowledge and skills. And this is not new, this is a representation of what we have been living continuously for years, which is a type of partocracy where the priority in the distribution of portfolios is actually the satisfaction of narrow party interests.

When we talk about foreign influence and people who are currently in some important positions, I would say that the basic prerequisite for resistance to foreign influence, be it Russia, be it China, be it Serbia, is strong institutions. However, Montenegro has the problem of lacking strong and democratic institutions, and because of this, we are particularly vulnerable to harmful influences from outside. Again, this is not a new problem, this is not something that has happened in the last two or three years, this is the result of three decades of governance of the previous government, i.e. the Democratic Party of Socialists, during whose mandate the institutions were charged with corruption, partocracy and nepotism, which has led to a certain stagnation in negotiations with the EU since 2018. In Montenegro today, foreign influence, Russia, Serbia and China are often talked about. However, it is not this problem that resulted in political changes in 2020, but the fact that, for example, the Democratic Party of Socialists signed an agreement on political cooperation with Putin’s party, United Russia, in 2011. So that too, although in a different socio-political context, enabled foreign influence from outside.

Now, how resistant Prime Minister Spajic will be to outside influence from Russia, Serbia, or primarily through the Serbian Orthodox Church, depends on other senior officials. You also mentioned Andrija Mandic, the man who is currently in the post of the speaker of the parliament, one of the three most important posts in the country, whose biography, words, actions and actions speak of an ever-closer embrace with the East, therefore, the opposite of what would represent modern Montenegro, whose external political goal is at least declaratively towards the West. Time will tell how Montenegro will be handled and how much of a problem it will actually be, what is a big problem in Montenegro today is the level of influence of religious and church institutions on political currents. And it has increased significantly in recent years and the negative tendencies of radicalization, as well as the nationalists associated with it, are increasingly seen, expressed and felt.

The Geopost: How much influence does Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić have directly on the institutions of Montenegro and how much does he control those institutions after the formation of the new government?

Well, specifically, you have the census as a key event, at least it shouldn’t be, but essentially it is a key, socio-political event that has been postponed for several years and should finally be organized on December 3, so now on the coming Sunday. What is its influence, let’s say it has a direct connection with some departments of functions and authorities in Montenegro, but there is more a direct one. There is information that this year, namely for 2023, the government of Serbia has allocated about 4 million and 270 thousand euros to organizations with a pro-Serbian sign in Montenegro, three times more than it was in 2022, which speaks of the importance of the registration itself, namely the questions and results of the registration in Montenegro for certain addresses in Belgrade. And it’s not just about organizations that deal with education, that deal with information or culture, you also have the situation with the media. Montenegro today, as is often said in the Montenegrin public space, is a media vehicle, for the reason that 4 out of 5 televisions with national coverage are owned by Serbian capital. So, one in five isn’t, and that’s the public broadcaster.

So, on that side there is a lot of reason to worry, because the reason for buying Montenegrin media is not of a market nature. We are a small market and this is certainly not the reason, but it should be understood through Serbia’s socio-political efforts to shape the information landscape in Montenegro. So, I would say, in addition to political influence and influence through important organizations, you also have a great influence of Serbia through the media, that is, through information, through what shapes the public sphere and public information of citizens in Montenegro. It is propaganda that has the same elements as war propaganda and uses targeting techniques. Recently, you have seen that certain people from an area, certain journalists, have been targeted not only by the Serbian media, but also by the Russian media, which have directly targeted them and are now moving state institutions, such as the police and the prosecutor’s office.

The Geopost: How much disinformation is coming from Russia or China?

In Montenegro, unlike Serbia, we have no problem with the Chinese media, in fact China’s approach to Montenegro is different from Russia’s or maybe Serbia’s approach. However, when we talk about Russian media, that is, about Russian propaganda, although we do not have official Russian media registered in Montenegro, pro-Russian propaganda is present, given that most pro-regime Serbian media places their content in the public space of Montenegro and it often happens, when we talk about the current census or any other important socio-political event, that the sources of the Serbian media are precisely the Russian state media. In this synergy, the opinion is constantly misinformed and divisions and conflicts are encouraged, and not only the pro-Serbian policy is affected, but also the part of the population that identifies as such. And with this, a negative image is created not only for Montenegro as a state and citizens, but also for those who declare themselves as Montenegrins, and ethnic and religious conflicts are especially encouraged. And when we talk about the media and the problem of disinformation, there is an index of media literacy that has been carried out at the European level for the last ten years, and Montenegro is consistently at the bottom of that media scale, and according to the latest research of the relevant non-governmental organizations in Montenegro, we are very determined, we as Montenegrin citizens are very determined and we believe in the conspiracy theory, which puts us in a really unenviable position in this whole environment.

/The Geopost