Janusz Bugajski: Russia will break up, time for Kosovo to be a part of NATO

Well-known political scientist, Janusz Bugajski, in an interview with The Geopost, spoke about important issues in the Western Balkans as well as the war in Ukraine.

Bugajski said that now is the right moment for Kosovo to join NATO.

As for Russia, he has stated that it will soon break up.

Below you can find the find the full interview:

The Geopost: How endangered is the Western Balkans by Russian influence? Do you think Russia is fading out after the invasion in Ukraine?

Bugajski: I think Russia has penetrated the region quite extensively over the past 10-12 years. Certainly, during the past few years is when Putin realized that there were still unresolved questions in the Balkans that he could exploit to Russia’s advantage. So, Russia has penetrated some countries more than others, of course. It has penetrated political systems, security structures, intelligence networks, the media environment, some religious organizations, cultural organizations. So, across the border I would say Serbia and Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Hercegovina be the most affected, directly. Into such a degree that I would say Vucic and Dodik are acting as proxies of Moscow in the region. There’s a lot to debate in terms of what Russia could do but I would say that the war in Ukraine, the war that Russia launched in Ukraine and the fact that it’s not going very well will encourage Russia to be more provocative in regions where it can undermine Western interests, regions where it can preoccupy NATO and of course the biggest candidate here is the Western Balkans.

The Geopost: The political elite in Kosovo is constantly calling for the country’s membership in NATO. Do you think now is the right time?

Bugajski: Absolutely. I couldn’t agree with them more. That’s because of two things. One, the Vucic government has shown much more clearly than before that is allied with Russia, allied with the Putin regime. It hasn’t gone along with the sanctions. Up until recently, it was still allowing Russian flights into Belgrade. It hasn’t imposed any trade or energy embargos, like increasing number of countries are doing. It has incredibly close connections, encourages demonstrations in support of Putin, in support of the war against Ukraine and we’ve seen most of the demonstrations, not everybody of course, but most of the demonstrations in Belgrade have been pro-Putin and pro-Moscow. So that’s, I would say, one side. Kosovo has to distinguish itself in a way from Serbia. In many respect, I would say, it can compare itself to Ukraine. In other words, if Ukraine had been a member of NATO a few months ago or a few weeks ago even, I don’t think Russia would’ve intervened because they would’ve provoked an American reaction. Our mistake was not to bring these countries in, Georgia and Ukraine in particular, when it was possible. So, Kosovo finds itself in a similar situation. The best protection Kosovo can have from any kind of revengism from Serbia would be to be a part of NATO. I’m not saying Serbia is necessarily going to attack but Kosovo itself would feel safer. So in that respect I would say it’s a good opportunity for Kosovo to show its pro-NATO, pro-Western, pro-democracy orientation. So i think this is a good moment to push for NATO and also for EU membership.

The Geopost: Do you think Kosovo is showing its pro-NATO orientation? Is Kosovo being clear on its political path?

Bugajski: You can always do more. I know it’s easier to say ‘do more’ when you stand outside. When you’re in government it’s a little bit more difficult. Because of constraints, because of pressures from somebody European countries, even pressure from our State Department. But I think the government is doing well, I think it has stated its position and I think it’s stated what Kosovo’s aspirations are. It’s underscored that Kosovo is probably the most pro-American country in the region. I’m sure Kosovars would be willing to fight alongside their American comrades in NATO, if called upon. Of course a lot of military reforms needs to be done, a lot of reorganization and so on and so forth, to meet all the NATO standards. Let’s put it this way, if you don’t ask for something you’ll never get it. If you ask, you may not get is straight away but people remember that that’s what you want.

The Geopost: Russia is already being accused of war crimes by a lot of states and organizations. Many countries have imposed sanctions on Russia. How do you think this war will end?

Bugajski: Well, it’s not going to well for them. They expected, according to all the plans, the organizations, the preparations, the logistics and everything, for this to be over in a few days. In other words, they’d march on Kyiv , that the government would collapse , that they could put in some sort of a puppet administration, they could control the Ukrainian military. In other words, there were using the example of 2014. What they did not realize, or let’s say their military intelligence was not good enough to understand that in the intervening 8 years Ukraine built a formidable military, even though it did not acquire all the weapons that it wanted. I could imagine if they had acquired all the weapons that they wanted , the Russian army would’ve probably been defeated by them now. But they didn’t. So it’s still an upgoing struggle. But what I think the Russians have completely miscalculated is the determination of the Ukrainian people. When you’re defending your home, when you’re defending your family, your land, your territory, your history, your identity, you fight so much harder then when you’re invading and trying to impose something in another country. So I think it was a huge miscalculation in Russian military intelligence. It was a huge political miscalculation about Ukraine’s resistance. And in terms of how it’s going to go, I cannot exactly forecast how it’s going to end. It may go on for quite a while. Every war, as you know, has ups and downs. It depends partly what Russians do next. They’re withdrawing from some parts of the county, some parts of the occupied Ukraine. Will they go to other parts to try and strengthen friends in the Donbas region, capture more territory there. They are clearly trying to get more troops from around the country . There are reports from the far East, even they are pulling troops out of Georgia to go and fight in Ukraine. So they’re getting increasingly desperate. What’s gonna be interesting is the spring draft. In other words, they have the military conscription coming up in a couple of weeks time. We’ll see how many people will try to avoid the military conscription. Because I think now Russians understand that their conscripts, the people that are gonna be drafted gonna be sent as cannon fodder to Ukraine. So, how much resistance will be that, I think will be incredibly important in terms of the capability of the Russian army to sustain such loses. The last estimates , even conservative estimates, they’ve lost at least 15, 000 troops. Dead. KIA (killed in action). That’s more than they lost in 10 years in Afghanistan. That’s one month. Plus hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, airplanes, helicopters, you name it, they’ve lost. This has been an incredible success, if not complete victory for the Ukrainian army. And I think every success breeds more success, but one always has to be careful because Russia does have weapons that Ukrainians don’t have. They still have the air power that Ukraine can’t cope with, fully. So there’s still a long way to go I would say.

The future of Russia

Bugajski: As it happens, I wrote and finished a book just before the war began. And it’s called “ Failed state: A guide to Russia’s rupture.

I believe, actually, that Russia eventually will break up. The state as it exists now, this Russian Federation, which really isn’t a federation (a bit like the Yugoslav Federation) isn’t gonna last very long, it’s going to collapse. And I think the war that Putin led Russia into, the Kremlin led Russia into, will accelerate the process. So my book is coming out in a few weeks time, I just have to update it with the war. But basically, everything I wrote before the war I stick by.