Akrap: Serbia is the main exporter of the crisis in the area of the Western Balkans

Russia and Serbia and their instruments of action manage numerous processes both on the political and social scene, mainly in Serbia, says Gordan Akrap, a security expert from the Institute for Hybrid Conflict Research in Zagreb, in an interview for The Geopost.

“It has seen in several examples that by engaging its own and Serbian capacities, Russia tried to distract the attention of the West from everything it is doing in its brutal aggression against Ukraine in relation to the six countries of the Western Balkans, further complicating the situation in them, provoking numerous protests and trying to carry out numerous social and political changes by acting through financial, economic, political, security and social organizations”, says our interlocutor.

He notes that Serbia has strongly radicalized the society created as a result of Milosevic’s radical policies in the 1990s, and that this process continued with Kostunica and his successors, where, he says, they antagonized everyone outside of Serbia and everyone except the Serbs in a way that they tried on one side , to show – ‘we are the ones who are the key protectors of Serbian national interests’, and on the other hand, they positioned themselves towards the West as someone who is a barrier to additional and further radicalization of Serbia.

This, he emphasizes, is a problem that we also have to face today.

“We clearly see how Serbia and Russia are trying to strongly destabilize Kosovo, they succeeded in destabilizing Montenegro,” Akrap points out, adding that “Serbia is trying to exert its strong influence on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well.”

Full Interview

Geopost: How do you see the security situation in the Balkans a year and a half after the Russian aggression against Ukraine?

Akrap: The security situation has become quite complicated considering the strong Russian influence in Serbia and the fact that numerous elements from Serbia, its society and state are closely connected with Russia and the realization of Russian interests in the Balkans. It was seen in several examples that by engaging its own and Serbian capacities, Russia tried to distract the attention of the West from everything it is doing in its brutal aggression against Ukraine in relation to the six countries of the Western Balkans, further complicating the situation in them, provoking numerous protests and trying to carry out numerous social and political changes by acting through financial, economic, political, security and social organizations.

We should not forget that Russia and Serbia and their instruments of action manage numerous processes both on the political and social scene, mainly in Serbia. And we know that Serbia is still the main exporter of the crisis in the area of the Western Balkans.

Namely, in the bloody disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, the international community did not allow Serbia’s grand strategy to be defeated, that is, their intention and plan to create a great Serbia, and that is why this idea is still strong and present today. Unfortunately, even today, twenty or so years after the breakup of Yugoslavia and the fall of the Milošević regime, we have to fight with similar and the same activities of Serbia, which is trying to do both independently and with the help of Russia.

Geopost: To what extent is Russian influence in the Balkans, especially in Serbia, a challenge for the West?

Akrap: Extremely large. However, Russia should be viewed in multiple ways. One cannot look at only the Russian aggression against Ukraine without looking at the whole complex of activities and international activities that Russia is doing in the international field. The same should be said for Serbia, which cannot and must not be looked at uniformly through only one vector of offensive actions. Namely, through its numerous activities, Serbia has a very destabilizing effect on its neighborhood.

However, at the same time, the connection with Russia leads Serbia to be at the same time an instrument of Russian policy in the implementation of those common interests, and at the same time, Serbia is in the strong grip and embrace of Russia, so that any attempt to drag Serbia towards the West, that is, to accept the European common security policy, to accept the European the norms and standards of living, the system of values and beliefs that the member countries of the NATO alliance and the EU hold together leads to Russia increasing that grip. We know several times that Russia strongly tried to destabilize Serbia from the inside at the moment when Serbia tried to make some strides towards the West. And this is the problem that Serbia has had for decades. They strongly radicalized the society created as a result of Milosevic’s radical policies from the 1990s, continued with Kostunica and his successors, where they antagonized everyone outside of Serbia and everyone except the Serbs in a way that they tried on the one hand, to show – ‘we are the ones who are the key protectors of Serbian national interests’, and on the other hand, they positioned themselves towards the West as those who are a barrier to additional and further radicalization of Serbia. However, this is a problem that we also have to face today.

We clearly see how Serbia and Russia are trying to strongly destabilize Kosovo, they succeeded in their plan to destabilize Montenegro, and when we talk about the perniciousness of that influence, we know that the practical membership and admission of North Macedonia and Montenegro into the NATO alliance managed to prevent a strong involvement in their internal relations.

However, unfortunately, it was not possible to prevent the strong negative interference of Serbia and Russia in the processes in Montenegro. We know that Serbs and Russians tried several times to overthrow the existing government by violent means, now they succeeded through legitimate democratic elections. The question is to what extent this victory in the political elections was the result of numerous disinformation campaigns that polluted the information space of Montenegro and Serbia with numerous pro-Russian and pro-Serbian falsehoods that unfortunately negatively shaped public opinion in Montenegro.

Geopost: You mentioned the strong influence of Russia on Serbia, we also see that lately Serbia has been playing other cards as well, such as China and Iran. How do you see Serbia’s foreign policy relations and how threatening is it for countries in the region?

Akrap: It is primarily dangerous for Serbia itself because Serbia is trying to sit on several chairs at the same time, but it simply does not work. It is no longer the time of the 1970s and 1980s and the Non-Aligned Movement, when in such difficult and demanding situations you cannot and do not want to determine yourself. On the other hand, from the history of China’s economic, economic and financial activities in the last thirty or forty years towards the countries of East, Central and West Africa and towards some other countries, we know that practically China brings all the countries it enters into financial slavery. We know what happened to North Macedonia, we know that Montenegro was forced to ask the EU for financial help to solve the Chinese debt, and we know that Serbia, which, for example, can no longer get money on the international market, tried to get that money from China. That is very, very expensive money.

On the other hand, Serbia, which is trying to exert its strong influence on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, is trying to agree with Erdogan how to control certain processes in Bosnia and Herzegovina and impose certain processes and opinions and further destabilize BiH.

On the other hand, it suits Serbia in a strategic sense to connect with Turkey because Turkey, building the Turkish Stream which should bring Russian gas through the Balkans and further towards Hungary as the ultimate goal where Serbia and Hungary cooperate very well in that field, is one of the conditioned things that determines all these activities. However, it is a matter of time, we have already seen this in the examples of investments in mining, because when China starts some investments, it controls them, the area it invests in, it supervises and does not want anyone else to get involved in such things.

Turkey, on the other hand, simply has certain economic and financial problems, and is trying to strengthen itself politically. However, it will be quite a demanding process. So that Serbia is doing everything that a wise country should not do in such a way, to such an extent, because it will additionally destabilize itself internally. In order to prevent its further stabilization, it will, unfortunately, and that is most likely true, embark on further destabilization primarily of Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Internal developments in Serbia, on the other hand, will also be of no use to Serbia or the surrounding countries. Especially for us from Croatia, it is extremely important that Serbia be a democratic, free country, where human rights and freedoms are respected, where minorities are respected, that Serbia respects everything that is based on the unity in the EU, where Serbia supposedly intends to join. When we talk about the six countries of the Western Balkans, three countries are members of the NATO alliance, and I am convinced, I hope, that the NATO alliance will not just lightly allow and watch the further spread and repetition of the malicious actions of Serbia and Russia in the area of the Western Balkans.

Geopost: You also run the Zagreb security forum. What will be the theme of this year’s Forum?

Akrap: From the first day, the Zagreb Security Forum was conceived as a forum where experts will talk with other experts, exchange information and knowledge they have acquired and help others identify and face the future security challenges facing their countries. The motto of our forum is to strengthen democracy and protect freedoms and human rights. In this context, we have been working all these years. We are trying to identify what are the vulnerabilities in Western democracies, what are our advantages that can and should be used, and what are the value systems that we are proud of and that are the subject of hybrid threats from potential adversaries. On the other hand, we point out that even in existing and future security threats, which are of a hybrid nature, huge challenges remain before societies and states, and that states should be led by people who are smart and wise, who are capable of making long-term decisions that turn them from politicians into statesmen, although those decisions in the short term may not give positive and expected results, but in the long term it works towards the stabilization and securing of the democracy of society and the state. Let’s not forget – we are all young countries. Croatia has been a state for a little more than 30 years, Kosovo has been a state for a shorter time… these are very short periods in the process of the creation of states and their functioning, so there are numerous challenges that stand before us, there are numerous threats. Unfortunately, we have serious and, on the other hand, very high-quality experiences of numerous conflicts and wars, with which we can help emerging countries and create defense. Let’s say Ukraine, which is now forced to defend its statehood against the numerous security attacks and challenges it faces from Russia. We are also able to recognize, and this is what we do at our Zagreb Security Forum, the future threats and challenges that our societies and our countries will face. It is our goal and our meaning and our desire is to help the countries, especially of the Western Balkans, in strengthening their social resistance to numerous challenges and strengthening their statehood and enabling them to independently decide their fate in accordance with the principles of international law, and that one day, as some countries that joined the NATO alliance, that all those countries from the Western Balkans, who want to, should join the EU and NATO. Because joining the EU and the NATO alliance is worth the effort, it is simply a process that needs to be done so that the countries of the Western Balkans do not remain a black hole on the political, economic and security map of Europe. From everything that has been happening in recent years, it can be seen that the countries of the NATO alliance are safe and no one will attack them by armed means, they are able to defend themselves. On the other hand, strengthening joint defense is also one of the activities we are promoting at our Zagreb Security Forum. When we talk about Kosovo, we are glad that one of the former commanders of KFOR will share his experiences from Kosovo with us.

The Geopost