Ihor Todorov: Russia is waging an all-out war against the West and the Balkans are one of the most important fronts

Russia is waging a hybrid war not only against Ukraine, but also uses its leverage at various levels: political, informational, economic, cultural. Its goal is to undermine trust in the Western world from within and create new hotbeds of conflict.

With the coming to power of US President Donald Trump, these threats have become even more real. Ihor Todorov (Ukraine), a professor at Uzhhorod National University and Doctor of Historical Sciences, talks about this in an exclusive interview with The Geopost.

The full interview is here:

The Geopost: Recently, the presidents of America and Ukraine met in the Vatican. It was the first meeting since the incident between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in the Oval Office. What significance does it have for the prospects for peace?

Todorov: Indeed, the photo of Presidents Zelensky and Trump in St. Peter’s Basilica has spread around the world. There have been many, many interpretations. But, in my opinion, one should not be happy with positive comments, even if they come from the Russians, who say that Trump was given something to drink and he changed his point of view on the war and Ukraine. Even Trump’s posts on social networks, where he says positive words about the president of Ukraine, are worth little. Statements from his inner circle – poorly educated people who lead the foreign policy actions of the United States – do not give grounds for optimism. Because in reality, these attempts to stop the war “immediately”, even the rather critical assessment by the White House of Putin’s initiative for a ceasefire during their celebration of Victory Day in the “Great Patriotic War” – all this rather indicates a desire not to spoil their holiday of Victory Day hysteria…

It turns out that the prospect of ending the war is not real, in my opinion. Russia has not deviated from its demands by a single step. This is evidenced by a recent interview with Foreign Minister Lavrov. They have actually been aimed at this from the very beginning: the liquidation of the Ukrainian state, the destruction of the Ukrainian population with Ukrainian identity, and the restoration of the empire precisely at the expense of Ukraine. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not worth thinking that the prospect of peace is real. Because the demands put forward by the United States – even in the form of ultimatums – regarding the legal recognition of Russian control over Crimea and the actual occupation of four Ukrainian regions – are categorically unacceptable for Ukraine. There was a deadlock on these issues, and it remains so.

So to think that Trump will come and solve everything is fantastic. Although he repeated 65 times during the election campaign, and already after becoming president, that he would solve the “Ukrainian conflict” in 24 hours. 100 days of his presidency have passed, and the situation has not improved. Moreover, we are observing that the United States is increasingly siding with Russia. It is the Russian narratives about the causes of the war and the possibilities of its end that are being repeated.

Unfortunately, the concept of victory has disappeared from our domestic information space. In my opinion, this cannot be allowed. Because as the German politician Pistorius said, Trump is actually proposing the capitulation of Ukraine, and for this the “peacemaking mediation efforts” of the American administration were not needed.

So far, the outlook is rather bleak. But at the same time, we are observing a tendency towards an increasing role for Europe and the European Union, and Great Britain, primarily in the context of assistance to Ukraine, military assistance in particular. We can say that the Ukrainian vector has become one of the reasons for the deterioration of relations among NATO allies. Because the demands for recognition of Crimea as Russian fundamentally violate the principles of international law – in particular, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders.

But from the point of view of American interests, such a position may seem logical, because territorial claims (the USA – ed.) to NATO allies remain. For example, regarding Greenland – a territory that belongs to Denmark. And recently, after the recent parliamentary elections in Canada, Trump expressed hope that the new prime minister will make Canada the 51st state. This, of course, is nonsense, but such a modern sad reality.

The Geopost: Trump and his team have changed the world order, the norms of international law no longer apply. All this creates a real threat that the United States may withdraw from the negotiation process and from the process of supporting Ukraine in general. Is Europe ready for such challenges?

Todorov: Indeed, such a danger exists, but this is not a current issue. Because, on the other hand, there are statements that the United States will not withdraw from the negotiation process, although the meaning of this negotiation process remains in question.

As for Europe, the creation of a “coalition of the determined” indicates the awareness of traditional European politicians of what is happening. This awareness is based on the understanding that liberal democracy, democratic values, on which Europe is based, and which are written in the preamble of the North Atlantic Treaty, still retain value for Europeans. Of course, within their capabilities, they will continue to help Ukraine. Another question: is this enough? There is no clear answer here.

However, unfortunately, there are no other alternatives to our war – a war for independence, for the existence of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people – yet. Therefore, we hope that Europe will maintain its positive attitude towards Ukraine and its support. Moreover, it should increase it in the specific conditions of the United States’ position.

The Geopost: This is a very serious challenge, given how the Russian propaganda campaign has intensified in Europe and the world. How does Russia manage to convince the world that it is not the aggressor country, but Ukraine is to blame for the conflict that Russia calls a “special military operation”?

Todorov: It cannot be said that Russian narratives have won and dominate the world. But Russia is investing a lot of money in propaganda, where there are narratives about “Ukrainian Nazism”, about the threat to Russia from Ukraine, that the Russian “special military operation” was a step to preempt Ukraine’s actions.

All this works for certain social strata. Why does it work? Even if we do not take into account the huge amount of money invested in propaganda. Unfortunately, in Europe (and not only in Europe) there are some liberal stereotypes: that it is possible to agree somewhere in the middle, that another point of view must be taken into account. They are spread by intellectuals, even scientists and experts in European countries, and Russia successfully uses “useful idiots”. Such a danger is certainly very, very serious. But it seems to me that the absolute majority of European leaders (with the exception of Viktor Orban and Robert Fico) still understand what is happening, and the majority of public opinion in European countries supports Ukraine.

By the way, in the United States, despite the Trump administration’s de facto pro-Russian position, they still remain true to the idea of ​​supporting Ukraine, supporting democracy. But it seems that the American administration does not pay much attention to public opinion in its own country. Of course, we must resist this. Ukraine is very limited in its ability to counter, although this does not mean that we do not have to do this. However, it is our partners in European countries, in the majority, I emphasize, who stand on precisely such pro-Ukrainian positions.

But still, there is a danger, because Russian propaganda operates in such populist, marginal circles of European countries. Given that Europe is a democratic territory, there is always a danger that these pro-Russian populist parties may gain greater popularity.

They may even theoretically come to power. I hope this will not happen, but such a danger should also be taken into account. And we need to counteract at all levels: public and classical diplomacy, through our own media, through culture, and the like.

We are, one might say, in a state of total war with Russia. This is not only the front in eastern Ukraine, but also a hybrid front at all levels.

By the way, there is a possibility that the recent incident in Europe (the blackout in Spain and Portugal, which affected a number of other EU countries – Ed.), related to energy supply, is also an action by Russia. This has not yet been proven, but it is very easy to state who benefits from this. Of course, we know who.

The Geopost: We know how serious Russia’s influence and sphere of interests are in the Balkans, especially in Serbia. There are offices of Russia Today and Sputnik in Belgrade, broadcasting Kremlin propaganda 24/7. Some analysts suggest that the Balkans could become the next hot spot in Europe if the war in Ukraine does not stop. Is there any basis for such an assertion?

Todorov: In my opinion, there is. I have already said that Russia is waging an all-out war against the West and the Balkans are one of the most important fronts, because in some countries, primarily in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, even in Croatia, there are cunning pro-Russian politicians. Therefore, Russia is doing everything in order to take advantage of the opportunity to exacerbate the traditional contradictions that exist in the Balkans for its own benefit. This is a possible attempt to divert attention from the war in Ukraine. And, most importantly, to achieve the realization of its own geopolitical interests in the Balkans. So far, it has not reached a tough confrontation, but Russia is working on it. We must counteract as much as possible in every area so that the Balkans do not become a hot spot again.

/The Geopost