Exclusive| Serwer: Russia is committing crimes against humanity every day, Vucic is a political chameleon

Well-known American professor Daniel Serwer, in an exclusive interview with The Geopost, spoke about the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Western Balkans.

Serwer regards Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic as a chameleon in politics, who changes colors whenever it fits him.

Russia, according to Professor Serwer, is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity every day, in the war it has started in Ukraine.

Below, you can find Professor Daniel Serwer’s full interview for The Geopost:

Putin demanded the independence of Donbas and Lugansk according to the model of Kosovo? Is the Russian-Serbian relationship finally breaking down?

I don’t think relations between Russia and Serbia are breaking down in this moment, because President Vucic has not yet joined the sanctions against Russia, we’ll see if he does that in the coming days, he promised senator Murphy, during the senator’s visit recently that something would be done on that direction within the next 60 days.

The fact is that Putin has often used his analogy of Kosovo to Donbas and Luhansk. It’s complete nonsense. Donetsk and Luhansk will never subject the kind of ethnic cleansing and homicidal mass murder that Kosovo is subjected to. They never had UN peacekeeping forces and they never had a Security Council Resolution that promises a decision on the final status.

So, the analogy is completely false and can’t be used with any kind of intellectual integrity. But, of course Putin doesn’t care about that.

Who will recognize Kosovo first: Russia or Serbia?

Let me consider the two alternatives that you present. If Russia were to turn around and recognize the independence of Kosovo, what Serbia does wouldn’t be very important because Kosovo would enter the UN and by the lateral recognitions normally sees when a country enters the UN. And so Serbia would be presented that fact completely. UN membership is the modern day symbol of an independent and sovereign state. So, if Russia recognizes first, it is all over. If Serbia recognizes first, it is not all over. Why? Because Russia could still block UN membership for Kosovo, which depends on a positive recommendation of the Security Council. So, in a very real, sense Russian recognition is more important than Serbian recognition. I don’t see Russian recognition on the horizon. Intellectual consistency is of no significance to Mr. Putin. He would not follow through on recognition of Kosovo, if somehow Luhansk and Donetsk were accepted as independent. In any case, he doesn’t intend for them to be independent, he intends for them to join Russia, there is no question about that. They’re not viable as independent states and he wouldn’t tolerate them as independent states. They’re pretty much a part of Russia, are ruled from Russia. And that’s what Putin is trying to do. He is trying to reconstruct this area of Russian rule, with different arrangements, with different satellites. He intends to have lots of satellites and he wanted all of Ukraine to be one of them but he lost that war. And now he is tackling to have a part of Ukraine, including Luhansk and Donetsk as well as Crimea be part of his satellites.

Does Putin’s statement show anything more about the war process in Ukraine?

I don’t see what they show about the war in Ukraine except that Russia is behaving in Ukraine, somewhat Serbia behaved in Kosovo. It’s murdering people, it’s murdering large numbers of people, it’s committing war crimes and crimes against humanity every single day. Whether it’s genocide or whether what happened in Kosovo is genocide or not, is irrelevant. What’s happening is criminal. And there can be no doubt about that to the non-lawyer. Those who deny it are justifying it. I don’t know on what basis, but I suppose on the basis of mistreatment of those in Luhansk and Donetsk. There is no evidence for serious mistreatment of Russian speakers in Luhansk and Donetsk before the 2014 Russian invasion. And even now, frankly, Russian speakers are defending Kharkiv from the Russian assault. The people who defend Mariupol are people who speak Russian. It’s outrageous for the Russians to compare this situation in any way with the situation in Kosovo. The only comparable thing is their own behavior with the Serbian behavior in Kosovo, which was also criminal.

In Kosovo, for several days now, Serbian organized crime groups linked to the government in Belgrade have been attacking Kosovo police officers. In whose favor do these attacks go? Are these attacks related to attempts at political and possibly security destabilization?

I really don’t know. That these are organized crime groups that are attached to Belgrade in Northern Kosovo, I have no doubt. But I don’t know why in particular now they are attacking Kosovo Police. In the past, Kosovo Police have been able to arrest some of these people and it seemed to me with Belgrade’s cooperation. I can’t prove that but the fact that the arrest went fairly smoothly suggests that Belgrade wasn’t unhappy. Why Belgrade would be unhappier now, I don’t really know. But the connection between Belgrade and organized crime in the North are pretty clear. And they run through internal Security Service of Serbia. We need to be rid of this and I admire Kosovo Police for trying to get a handle on it. But it’s not going to be easy. It’s very very difficult task and it is a dangerous task.

Aleksandar Vucic seems to be looking for a new political identity for Serbia. Is this just his game or is Serbia finally turning its back on Moscow?

I see Mr. Vucic as a chameleon. That is he turns the color of whatever you put close to him. And right now, the EU and United States are putting a Western color next to him. And they are saying you have to come on board with sanctions against Russia. Putin’s invasion in Ukraine is not justifiable in any way.

You saw that clearly in the visit of senator Murphy and his colleagues to Belgrade. In Vucic, to his credit in my view, said you can expect some changes in the next 60 days and we’ll see how dramatic those are. I do not expect him to turn his back completely on Moscow unless he concludes that Moscow is going to lose in Ukraine. He has continuously tried to sit on two stools, but the weight on the Russian stool might get a little bit lighter and the weight on the Western stool might get a little bit heavier. And that’s a game he plays. They are very frank about it in Serbia, they call themselves nonaligned and that’s what the nonaligned do, they hedge. That’s what it’s called in political science, hedging.

They go on one way or the other depending on how the wind blows and what particular moment is the better bet. This, from the Kosovo point of view looks not very attractive. Because Kosovo can’t hedge. It doesn’t have another stool it can sit on. So it sits solidly on the Western stool and tries to ride that wave rather than hedging. This makes logical sense for Kosovo and I think it should bring Kosovo closer to the European Union that has so far. I am particularly concerned with the Visa Waiver hasn’t been approved. I am also concerned about accession to the European Union, I am concerned about the membership in NATO which I hope will occur very soon, after Kosovo is qualified in 2027. But so far as Vucic is concerned I think you can expect him to continue hedging, because that is what Serbia has done for a very long time and he sees that as his best strategy for keeping both the West and the East on his waypoint.

Kosovo doesn’t have that option, so you have to come on board with the West. It should be a rewarding decision. It hasn’t been as rewarding as it should be.

After Macron’s victory in France, is it time for the European Union to act more actively towards the Western Balkans?

I hope so, I think that the re-election of Macron is really important in that regard. Germany has shift away from Russia and toward support for Ukraine, that is very important as well. I think there should be a shift in the European Union towards support for liberal democracy in the Balkans. And liberal democracy I would contrast not only with the dictatorship as in Russia but with ethnic national’s norms as in Bosnia and Hercegovina.

Now, Kosovo has fewer ethnic nations norms and some of them are quite justifiable. But I do think that Kosovo needs to not only say the right thing but do the right things. And that means treating the Serbs of Kosovo properly under the rule of law, including recognizing the property of the Monastery in Decan, including winning the loyalty of the Kosovo Serb population. /The Geopost/