Edward P. Joseph: Putin has an ally in the Western Balkans and that is Aleksandar Vucic

Foreign policy specialist Edward P. Joseph, in an interview with The Geopost, spoke about Russian influence in Europe, the situation in the Balkans and the war in Ukraine.

Regarding the situation in the Western Balkans and Russian influence in this region, Joseph estimates that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is an ally of Vladimir Putin and works with the same agenda.

“He (Putin) has an ally who helps him carry out the agenda and that ally isn’t Serbia, that is President Aleksandar Vucic who has demonstrated it, even before the invasion. But now we see it with a clarity after the Russian invasion, that he is Vladimir Putin’s partner in this same agenda of keeping this region divided and trying to divide Europe.”, Joseph told The Geopost.

The dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, according to Joseph, will not succeed as long as there are five other countries in the European Union that do not recognize Kosovo as an independent state and Serbia has no interest in resolving this problem.

Below you can find Edward P. Joseph’s full interview with The Geopost:

How is United States of America seeing Russian influence in Europe, before and after the war in Ukraine?

Even before the February 24th invasion, United States was very concerned about Russian influence or what we call “hybrid warfare”, using disinformation techniques to create divisions in Europe.

After the February 24th invasion we are alarmed because we see the threat that Putin poses not just to Ukraine but to European security, Western values and in that fashion to American security. So we are very concerned about Russian influence, not just about the Russian actions in Ukraine but also about the Russian influence including in this region.

How do you see Russian influence in the Balkans? Because Putin doesn’t make troubles just in Europe but also in the Balkans, especially in Montenegro, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. How do you see this problem?

Vladimir Putin to benefit from problems on the Balkans does not need to make a new war. Vladimir Putin benefits in the Balkans even by keeping the situation the same. Keeping these tensions growing, trying to create new tensions. But it doesn’t even have to be a war. It doesn’t have to be a new war, for example in Bosnia and Hercegovina for Vladimir Putin to benefit. As long as the situation stays like this, the confidence in this region, in the United States and in the European Union goes down. The support for European Union goes down. He gets to use this as an example, in his eyes, of a failed project, of a failed European Union with exactly what he’s trying also to use and demonstrate in Ukraine. And in addition he gets the benefit by keeping this region in this fashion. He has an ally who helps him carry out the agenda and that ally is in Serbia, that is President Aleksandar Vucic who has demonstrated it, even before the invasion. But now we see it with a clarity after the Russian invasion, that he is Vladimir Putin’s partner in this same agenda of keeping this region divided and trying to divide Europe.

Could Putin use Aleksandar Vucic to make troubles, for example in Northern Kosovo or in Bosnia and Hercegovina, with Milorad Dodik there, to destabilize these two states?

The game is not that Vucic will have Dodik make trouble. It’s that Vucic benefits from this potential destabilization. So this is how the game goes because people are afraid that Dodik will start something because he has Russian support that US and EU then have to turn to Belgrade and have to turn to Aleksandar Vucic and say “will you please help us control Dodik?”. And this is a game. This is what we call in the United States a racket, it’s a scam. Aleksandar Vucic is proposing exactly the strategy that Dodik carries out. He pretends that he respects Bosnian sovereignty, meanwhile he talks about Serb World and carries our Serb World policy undermining sovereignty of Montenegro and also preventing Kosovo from moving forward, blocking Kosovo in all international organizations. So Aleksandar Vucic carries out a similar agenda. He does not have to have a new war and Putin does not need a new war in this region in order to benefit to keep it unstable. But the stable status quo is also beneficial for Moscow  as is deterioration.

Do you think that this year could be the final one for the dialogue between Prishtina and Belgrade?

No. I don’t believe dialogue will succeed and that’s not because Miroslav Lajcak is not trying. He is trying very hard, he is very eligible and understands the problem. It is that Serbia has no interest to resolve this problem of the dialogue. And it’s an illusion to believe that Serbia in some process of the dialogue will arrive at recognition. It will not. The reason it will not is because five EU countries don’t recognize Kosovo. That’s the reason why the dialogue cannot work. It cannot work because as long as they don’t recognize Kosovo, Serbia doesn’t have to recognize Kosovo. Serbia we know does not want to recognize Kosovo. It’s actively hostile to Kosovo. Kosovo applied to join Council of Europe, Council of Europe is a means of cooperation. Why should countries that want to have good relations with their neighbors, why should they not want Kosovo in Council of Europe? In Belgrade the reaction was hostile, complete hostility to this. And that’s the reason. The reason is their interest in Belgrade to do this with, as long as it has these five EU unrecognizers, it continues to play a game and illusion that it will join EU and play along. And this is why ‘Open Balkans’ is also another illusion that gives legitimacy to Aleksandar Vucic but changes nothing in his policy.

Do you think that after Putin we will see ‘another Putin’?

It’s a very hard question to answer because Putin is a very destructive leader but has created a system that rewards these very aggressive policies that are supported by a power structure.  So, Putin has created in Russia a power structure where people have interest to support him. If he were to fall we would have to see, there would be a certain possibility but this would be a strategic decision on the part of the Russian people. Just like Serbia has to decide and cannot pretend it’s going for the European Union but really carrying out same type of policy as Putin, but through other means, in that case Russia would also have to decide. If Putin falls, Russia would have do decide “do we want to be constant source of aggression or do we want to have a relationship of respect with the United States and the European Union”.