The former ambassador of Montenegro in Kosovo, Ferhat Dinosha, in an interview for The Geopost, spoke about the Russian influence in the Balkans, with special emphasis on Montenegro, but also about the recent political events there, such as the signing of the Basic Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Note: The interview was done a few days before the signing of this Agreement
Dinosha also spoke briefly about the recent situation in the north of Kosovo, being convinced that only coordination with international friends, especially with America, will be the right solution for this situation as well.
You can read the full interview below:
How do you describe the Russian influence in the Balkans during the period you were a politician?
I think this question can be discussed at length. The Russian influence in the region, but also in Montenegro, is significant, it is historical I would say, it was present even in the earliest stages of the democratic process. It is constantly present for the reason that in Montenegro there are political parties which are pro-Serbian and thus also pro-Russian, they are actually Serbian parties and they show this openly. It happened that in the phase when Montenegro was preparing to join NATO, concrete steps were seen which spoke about the presence of Russian influence here, and of course the Serbian one, because they always go together here.
In 2016, on the eve of the parliamentary elections, there was a tendency for a coup d’état by a certain mixed Serbian-Russian group, the names of which later became public, and this group has planned that if the parliamentary elections were in favor of the pro-Western forces, especially in favor of the party of the current president of Montenegro, Mr. Djukanovic, they would make some kind of forcible entry in the Parliament of Montenegro and announce their victory and thus the processes would take a different direction. Fortunately, this has been prevented, and the process, as far as the group is concerned, is still not over, to a degree yes.
Later, with the changes that took place here in the government and in the political scene of Montenegro, the pace of judging this group also changed because we had the situation that two years ago pro-Serbian forces were in the government, which left this process aside, did not finalize it and which tended more and more to take root to divert the pro-Western policies of Montenegro and turn to pro-Russian policies here.
In this government, the current prime minister, Mr. Abazovic, who at that time was the Deputy Prime Minister and who knew these policies well, I believe that he met with them every day, and later took the step of saying that he was dissatisfied with the currents in the government he was in, he made the move to abandoned government, he proposed the formation of a minority government, which is currently in power, he became prime minister, but with the support of pro-Western forces, mainly the party of Mr. Đukanovic, it is the largest pro-Western party in Montenegro and without it there would be no movement towards Montenegro’s independence and inclusion in NATO. I believe that the opinion is clear about these.
Now we are in a situation where Mr. Abazovic has that support with the promise that he will work on the continuation of Montenegro’s pro-Western policy and strategic projects, namely European integration and Euro-Atlantic integration, these two have been completed, Montenegro is very serious on its way to the EU and is the first country in the Western Balkans on this route. He promised to continue on this path, but at the beginning there are problems with the Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) and with the fact that Prime Minister Abazovic personally and his team put the contract on the agenda, which again turns out to be problematic because it is a contract, as they call the Basic Contract with the Montenegrin and Littoral Metropolitanate, that is the name of the Serbian Church in Montenegro, and it is insisted that the Government of Montenegro approve it.
In the Government of Montenegro, it was discussed, voted on, some ministers did not support it, but the majority of ministers supported it, not the qualified majority that was agreed upon before the formation of the government, but a majority, which is a majority and Mr. Abazovic says that this Treaty would not affect the statehood of Montenegro, but experts in this field say otherwise and are very convincing with arguments that the Treaty aims to put the Serbian Church in the foreground as the number one church historically in Montenegro, even presenting it as an older one from the state of Montenegro itself.
There they talk about the Christian church, but it is about the Serbian church. Of course, the pro-Western forces that support the Minority Government are the Social Democratic Party and two Albanian ministers, one supported the Treaty, the other left that cabinet meeting, so it is not known how he would have voted if he was inside, but anyway the pro-Western forces say that if the government continues with this project, to sign the Basic Agreement with the Serbian Church, they will withdraw their support for the Government of Abazovic and we will have a new political crisis in Montenegro.
There are people who say that it may seem that Mr. Abazovic can go back to the embrace of the Serbian forces, which in this case, when Djukanovic’s party cuts its support, will join Mr. Abazovic and without the need for new votes to create again a pro-Serbian majority government, which would continue its own plans, its own projects.
I hope that this will not happen again, I hope that our international partners are also clear that the fight against corruption is necessary and must continue, but not at the price of Montenegro not being a pro-Western state, a state of NATO, it is also clear that if pro-Western forces fell, if Djukanovic’s party fell from power, from influence in power, other pro-Western forces are very small, such as the party of Mr. Abazovic who has only four deputies in the Parliament of Montenegro, where there are 81 deputies. The situation brought him to where he is now, but he can only be useful if he continues to cooperate with pro-Western forces, otherwise he would be harmful.
For this reason, I say that it is clear to our Western partners, to our international partners, above all to the Americans, together with the Europeans, of course, that the war against corruption that would return the Serbian forces to power here is not worthwhile because it would threaten all democratic processes in Montenegro.
For this reason, I am optimistic that if it happens that Abazovic is persistent, because he is stubborn in his projects, and the Agreement we are talking about is signed, then a situation will arise that will actually produce new parliamentary elections and the compression of pro-Western forces, to prevent the return of Serbian forces, which absolutely even today, even in the current situation in global politics, are those who do not condemn the wild Russian aggression in the occupied Ukraine, they, with certain groups, supported Putin’s steps there and so on. Therefore, our partners should clearly know that Montenegro without pro-Western forces, without the party of Mr. Djukanovic, who may have a thousand other sins, would not be the one who would be a friend and ally of the West.
How aggressive is Russia and Vucic’s policy towards Montenegro?
They are trying to camouflage it, but it is very clear that the politics of Belgrade, the politics of President Vucic, are constantly trying to be present and interfere in the internal politics of Montenegro. Belgrade does not have to do it directly and with messages from Belgrade, for the reason that here in Montenegro there are parties that he controls, and which until yesterday supported the government that we said that Mr. Abazovic was the Deputy Prime Minister, who at this stage are surprisingly silent since he is the Prime Minister, they did not organize protests, of course they are waiting for a moment for their projects like the Agreement with the Church to pass and to continue with the others. If they get what they want, then of course we will have new situations. Therefore, it is not surprising that in Montenegro, after a not so distant period, a political crisis is being created that can be mixed with certain incidents, I hope not such conflicts that will definitely avoid Montenegro from its western path.
How do you comment on the recent situation in North Kosovo?
Of course, I do not give myself the right, I cannot give myself the right to teach the decision-makers in Kosovo how to deal with such situations, but I am convinced that good coordination of steps with Western friends, especially with the Americans in this case, coordinating the steps of the government with them would create a situation which would not get out of control.
If this coordination did not exist, it is feared that Serbian and pro-Russian forces could try to create disturbances in the north. I do not believe that they will have the opportunity to open any new point of conflict, for the reason that the situation in Ukraine does not allow the Russian-Serbian element to influence elsewhere, so in this case in the Western Balkans, specifically in Kosovo. As a person who followed the events in Kosovo as much as time allows me, of course, I would like Kosovo not to hurry with some concerns that are not vital for its state interests, against the concrete situations it has, such as the current situation with the establishment of reciprocity measures, especially not without the clear guarantee of international friends that this path must be continued and that this path will not have consequences for democracy in Kosovo. / The Geopost
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Akrap: Serbia is the main exporter of the crisis in the area of the Western Balkans 
Lyudmila Makey: The issue of recognizing Kosovo will be the first thing that Ukraine should do after the victory 
Alek Barović for Geopost: The Russians have many sleeper agents in the region, they could easily open a new front in Europe
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