The Serbian Orthodox Church is Russia's main tool in the Balkans

Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik's attempt at partition represents Bosnia and Herzegovina's deepest crisis since the 1995 Dayton Agreement, said Reuf Bajrović, Co-Chair of the Washington-based US-Europe Alliance, in an interview with The Geopost.

Bajrović emphasizes that the source of this crisis is the attempt of Dodik, with the help of Moscow, to complete the genocidal project launched by the former Bosnian Serb leader, war criminal Radovan Karadzic, in 1992. He considers that the determined diplomatic intervention of the West, and in particular the US, is vital to prevent a deeper crisis.

According to him, the Serbian Church is Russia's main tool in the Balkans. Together with the Moscow-controlled mainstream media, the Serbian Orthodox Church is a tool that guarantees Putin's influence over Serbs throughout the Balkans. This includes Serbia, where Putin would certainly aim to overthrow Vučić if he assesses that Vučić is turning to the West on issues that Moscow considers key interests.

In the Balkans, Bajrović estimates that after pro-Russian elements took power in Montenegro, the fall of Zoran Zaev in North Macedonia is Russia's second victory in the region. Kosovo and BiH are certainly the main objectives of what will follow in the coming months, says Bajrović.

This is the full interview:

THE GEOPOST: How do you assess the political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina?ë today?

Bajrović: Bosnia and Herzegovina is in its deepest political crisis since Dayton. The cause of that crisis is the decision of Milorad Dodik who, with the great help of Russia, is trying to complete the genocidal project of Radovan Karadzic. There is no doubt that Dodik will push Bosnia, but also the entire region, into war conflicts, if he is not stopped before he has a chance to renew the 1992 uprising, following the direct example of Karadzic. He is wholeheartedly supported by parts of the EU (Orban, Jansa, Milanovic), while the EU diplomatic service perfidiously does the same things as the ultra-right forces from the EU, which are managed by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin.

THE GEOPOST: Can Dodik transfer responsibility for the army to Republika Srpska?

Bajrović: It cannot. The attempt itself is the overthrow of the constitutional order and the beginning of the rebellion that he will lead. Sarajevo continues to play the most important role in the crisis, despite Moscow's open malice, the EU's perfidious game, and Washington's indifference. I am convinced that the negative response from Sarajevo to the threats and offers that will follow is still the best guarantee that Dodik will be defeated in the end. It is important that Dodik is forced to withdraw all the moves that he promised to withdraw, because that is where the diplomatic game led by Western officials ends and this then becomes a first-class political problem for Biden, but also for the inexplicably peaceful Erdogan. Both will be politically damaged if they passively watch the highway to hell that Dodik opens sometime after January 9, following the example of Radovan Karadzic. The main tool of the pro-Bosniak forces is that there is no longer a JNA (Yugoslav Army) and that the public is much more mature than in 1991 when Yutel appeased the future victims of genocide for the needs of those who planned it at that time. In Sarajevo, the naive have almost disappeared, only those who consciously lie to the public in the service of Dodik and Covic remain, and this task is becoming increasingly difficult to fulfill.

THE GEOPOST: What is Russia's influence on Dodik and Bosnia and Herzegovina in general?

Bajrović: Dodik's greatest strength is that he understands the international context better than almost all politicians in the Balkans. This is probably because he has spent considerable amounts of money on the best legal and political experts in Washington and Brussels for fifteen years, whom he has naively mocked in Sarajevo and Banja Luka for years. The international context is such that several EU countries (Slovenia, Hungary, Croatia, Cyprus and Greece) openly support Dodik and this is more than enough to paralyze the entire EU in terms of responding to the BiH crisis. Dodik is well aware that the toothless EU cannot and does not want to stop him, on the contrary! Berlin and Paris will do everything to use EU institutions to send a message to Vladimir Putin that they are not the ones who will abide by his wishes in the Balkans in the hope that this will mean that Russia will not spit on them as it is now doing in Poland by sending thousands of migrants to that country.

THE GEOPOST: In which part of the Balkans does Russia have the greatest influence?

Bajrović: The Serbian Church is Russia’s main tool in the Balkans. Together with the Moscow-controlled mainstream media, the Serbian Orthodox Church is a tool that guarantees Putin’s influence over Serbs throughout the Balkans. This includes Serbia, where Putin would certainly aim to oust Vučić if he assesses that Vučić is turning to the West on issues that Moscow considers to be of key interest. Recognition of Kosovo’s independence is certainly at the forefront.

THE GEOPOST: Can the Balkans and BiH overcome this Russian aggression without America?

Bajrović: Perhaps the Biden administration will intervene with strong measures to support the integrity of BiH at the last minute – and there are such announcements behind closed doors – but it is much more responsible to be ready with all available means to protect what needs to be protected. The United States will be on the side of BiH and Kosovo in all international debates when Dodik – perhaps even Vučić – starts violence. The only question is whether this is enough? That is why it is important to be ready for such a possibility, because we choose whether to protect the state of BiH, without which Bosniaks become Palestinians. So, in the end, it is up to us!

THE GEOPOST: Have you noticed China's influence in the Balkans and the ways it operates?

Bajrović: China and Russia have different interests in the Balkans. The Chinese are interested in long-term economic influence, Russia wants to cause the maximum level of instability.

THE GEOPOST: How is Russia using Serbia to destabilize the region?

Bajrović: Putin has built such a strong position within Serbia itself that he sometimes makes decisions on behalf of the authorities in Serbia and without their consent. The dispatch of Russian Ambassador Bocan Kharchenko to the Kosovo border is a good example of this. Minister Stefanovic is clearly in conflict with Vučić, and the fact that he went to the border with Kharchenko is more than a clear signal to Vučić that he is not trying to resist Putin's orders. The Russians believe that northern Kosovo is a territory that they could eventually use for a grand settlement with the United States on changing the borders in Georgia, Ukraine, Kosovo and BiH. There is no doubt that the EU would eventually agree to such a thing, because it itself is under a hybrid attack from Russia in the form of a wave of migrants towards Poland and the threat of cutting off gas supplies if Nord Stream 2 does not receive an operating permit.

The destabilization of the Balkans is part of a much broader Russian strategy, but one that includes preparations for a new invasion of Ukraine, threats to the Baltic states, the use of hybrid operations within the EU itself, and a vast lobbying network of oligarchs close to Putin who are dedicated to corrupting the political elite throughout the West. Gerhard Schroeder is the best example of what Putin can achieve by spending money aimed at buying off the political and business elite in the West.

THE GEOPOST: How do you see Vučić's visit to Putin? 

Bajrović: Vučić is trying to sit on at least three chairs and this is obviously increasingly difficult to report. On the one hand, Putin is forcing him to give full support to Dodik's madness, on the other hand, America and the EU are rewarding him abundantly for maintaining the status quo. Angela Merkel's hymns to Vučić in the middle of Belgrade are the best indicator of the intentions of the entire EU.

THE GEOPOST: What about the fall of the Government in North Macedonia?

Bajrović: After pro-Russian elements took power in Montenegro, the fall of Zoran Zaev is Russia's second victory in the region. Kosovo and BiH are certainly the main targets of what will follow in the coming months. It remains to be hoped that this becomes clear to the authorities in Tirana. Edi Rama must understand that the illusion he created, which they are defeating with the Open Balkans, is only a cover for the aggression of Putin's allies against the rest of the region.