Janjic: Putin can force Vucic to recognize Serbian Republic

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of the two regions in Ukraine, Serbian analyst Dusan Janjic commented on what could be the developments in the Serbia-Kosovo-Russia relationship and what Belgrade can expect in the new circumstances.

Janjic recalled that this is not the first time Russia has done this.

“Russia has already done this with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the territory of Georgia. It first formed a pre-state entity, and then recognized it as a state. This is the same scenario that is being repeated now,” Janjic said.

When it comes to principles, Janjic says Russia uses the principles as they see fit.

“When it has to veto, on behalf of Belgrade, the implementation of the Ahtisaari Plan and the amendment of resolution 1244, then Russia swears by the territorial integrity of Serbia, which means it does not recognize secession. So, we must immediately distinguish Russia from China which all the time stands on this principle and has never done what Russia does. While Russia often mentions Kosovo as sui generis for what it agrees with the West, but says it can be used as a precedent. And she now uses it as a precedent. Basically, it is creating these states based on the precedent of Kosovo,” says Janjic.

Asked about the position of Serbia or Aleksandar Vucic in these circumstances, Janjic says that Serbia should think about all this, especially whether this is a veto, in which Vucic and others swear, did it really help Serbia and is it clear that Russia is not friendly, because it has now abandoned the content of what the veto has defended.

“The consequences could be such that this could encourage Dodik to form his own entity, which to some extent exists but is not known, and then put pressure on Vucic to recognize him. We will see these days when Putin’s envoy comes, what instructions for operation he will bring to Vucic. If Vucic goes that way, then, in fact, he is going towards what is called the bloc of allies of Russia and Putin, which means that he will face a harsh response from the EU, America and all Putin’s opponents, in this and other crises, “Janjic said.

Janjic says Russia will put pressure on Vucic because it considers it owes them.

“We know that a good part of the Serbian right has gone to Donbas and participated in political-propaganda activities. There are also a good number of volunteers fighting on the Russian side. The country has been in crisis since 2006, but has not reacted in any way,” he said.

According to him, the West will react harshly with sanctions and will ask Serbia to join them and decide where it stands.

But will Serbia do that, Janjic says that currently Serbia does not exist as a state.

“He is a man who has to make the decision. It is certain that with sanctions against Russia, Serbia would lose in economic terms because we are dependent on oil and gas. It came to this with corrupt deals and the non-strategic spread of the pipeline through Serbia, leaving aside hydropower and other forms of energy and with the full orientation to buy gas from Russia. This is the first medium-term consequence and I think it takes us several years to recover. The next consequence would be smaller. Stories about Serbian exports to Russia are fairy tales because this is at the level of negligible figures. The same goes for Russian investments. Our public debt to Russia is only about gas and oil, and for the reason that we have given Russia the market for the little oil we have,” he said.

Janjic says that arguments are being added to Kosovo and the door is being opened to seek recognition from Russia, while he stressed that Belgrade should consider whether it should still maintain this dependence through energy and security, on behalf of Kosovo.