On Thursday, April 21, the Harriman Institute at Columbia University organized a conference held through the Zoom platform, where the topic of discussion was “The Parallels of Russian Bellicosity in the Balkans in the Example of Ukraine”.
Participants in the conference were experts on the Western Balkans issue, who discussed Russian influence in the Balkans and its dangers.
The Geopost closely followed the conference and asked a question about the example of Serbia.
Asked what they thought of Vucic’s closeness to Putin, rather than to the West, experts on the issue said it could be very dangerous, noting that Vucic fears a pure democracy.
Ivana Stradner, from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said Vucic’s only ideology is to stay in power and that he fears a pure democracy in Serbia.
“I certainly believe that Vucic’s beliefs are more aligned with Moscow then with Washington. However, Vucic’s ideology, the only ideology that he believes in is to stay in power. That’s number one ideology he believes. And that trumps everything. He praises himself as a very pragmatic leader. If you, for example, listen to his rhetorics nowadays he’s ‘willing to throw Russia under the bus’, but it is only going to be on the short run, of course. Buying the time and observing geopolitics. But, at the same time, he is actually more now, shifting towards China, because he needs another card to play, to use against the West. And i firmly agree with the court stated in terms of democracy promotion. There is nothing that Vucic fears more than pure democracy in Serbia. So, i think, if we are talking certain values, including the EU, that’s something that we should definitely pursue. Otherwise, he is going to continue to use his well-know playbook to basically blackmail the West, saying ‘If you will do this than I am going to move towards Russia or China’. So, whether I believe that he is more aligned with the West or East, at this point really is irrelevant because the only thing that he is purely aligned with is to stay in power as long as possible.”, said Stadner.
Meanwhile, Richard Kraemer, from European Values Center for Security Policy, said that Vucic is a political animal and that there’s a lot Russia can do in Serbia to move forward.
“Serbia, in my estimate is very unique. The Russians have done such an exceptional job in their influence operation , to the extent that a given Government, in this instant Aleksandar Vucic and the SNS doesn’t chose to follow Moscow’s line. They have a number of means by which they can very readily push back if they want to. And when I spoke about the contentiousness that I believe will be the Balkans space, should we enter in a cold war scenario in the coming years, It’s precisely these kind of characteristics. I very much agree with Ivana, that I with Aleksandar Vucic first and foremost is a political animal and he’s interested in keeping himself in power. It’s very dangerous in an undemocratic country because those individuals, when they feel that their survival is at state, they will lash out and they will engage in activities and behaviors that can really unsettle a lot of otherwise core Atlantic interests. And for that reason, I wish I could be more optimistic about how he may or may not be able to reorient in the coming years. It’s more than a guy sitting in a big chair. There’s a lot in Serbia that Russia can play their advantage going forward. “ , said Kraemer.
Serbia’s double game, between Moscow and the West, is being criticized by political analysts.
The European Union, through a resolution, has asked Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia, following the unprovoked Russian aggression in Ukraine. / The Geopost /