Reuters: Orban is facing a serious challenge, Tisza party on track to win two-thirds majority in parliament

Hungary's opposition Tisza party is on track to win a two-thirds parliamentary majority in Sunday's elections, allowing it to change the constitution and key laws needed to unlock EU funds, a forecast by polling agency Median showed on Wednesday.

Veteran nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party are facing the biggest challenge to their rule in 16 years, as the center-right Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, is leading in independent polls.

Tisza is seen winning between 138 and 142 seats in the 199-member parliament, according to an estimate based on an analysis of the five most recent Median opinion polls conducted in late February and March.

Fidesz is expected to secure between 49 and 55 seats, while the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) party is estimated to win five or six seats, the forecast showed, Reuters reported.

In Hungary's parliament, a party needs 133 seats to obtain a supermajority necessary to change the constitution and key laws.

Fidesz has held a two-thirds majority during most of its rule since 2010, and used this power to approve a new constitution and to pass and amend several key laws, including the electoral law.

Pollster Median, which has one of the strongest records of accurate forecasting in Hungary, said its five surveys had a sample size of 5,000 in total and were conducted by three separate call centers.

She correctly predicted Orban's landslide victory in the last election four years ago, although she slightly exaggerated support for the opposition.

While most polls have shown a lead for Tisza, Fidesz points to polls that still show Orban's party on track for victory. Fidesz opponents say these are mostly conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party.

The Geopost