Macron proposes 'advanced nuclear defense' for Europe, eight countries join initiative

In his speech in Brest, President Macron effectively announced an evolution of French nuclear doctrine towards what he described as “advanced nuclear defense.” And it is indeed advanced, because it will include a European dimension.

At the same time, tempering any enthusiasm, this will happen "without any division of the final decision on the use of nuclear weapons" , which will remain completely in the hands of the President of the Republic.

Macron acknowledged that, faced with simultaneous national and European threats , France must see its prevention strategy on a continent-wide scale. Of course, the president – ​​who ends his ten-year presidency after a year and a half – wants to become (finally) a leader of European security.

It is important to note that this will be a gradual process, starting with offering allies the opportunity to participate in “joint deterrent exercises.” It could also include deploying elements of the French strategic air force on allied territory in order to “complicate the calculations of our adversaries” – as mysterious as that may sound. Macron did not specify whether this would include deploying nuclear weapons, perhaps deliberately increasing ambiguity and uncertainty.

The most important point of the speech is that eight European countries agreed to participate in "advanced prevention", namely: Germany, United Kingdom, Poland, Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark It is worth noting that this winter British representatives participated in French air force exercises for the first time in history.

Paris' new approach aims to show that France's security will no longer be seen only within the borders of French territory, both at the conventional and nuclear levels. Macron believes that the new solution will strengthen France's defense by giving it greater reach, while at the same time linking allied territories to French deterrence. He also stressed the project's complementarity with NATO; meaning that it will serve as a complement, not a replacement, to the Alliance's nuclear deterrence provided by the United States.

Prime Minister Tusk confirmed that Poland is holding talks with France and a group of its closest European allies on an advanced nuclear deterrence program: we are arming our friends so that our enemies will not dare to attack us.

And Russia?

France has a very long history of nuclear deterrence. The issue is now back on the agenda and allied countries can be covered – just now – by the nuclear umbrella. Paris can truly demonstrate its potential using Rafale fighter jets and enter a level of competition which the Russian Federation is afraid of.

In response to the evolution of Russia's nuclear doctrine, particularly the lowering of the threshold for nuclear use announced by President Vladimir Putin in November 2024, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot described the decision as mere rhetoric and assured that the Fifth Republic would not be intimidated by such actions.

The message was reinforced in early March this year by President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke openly about a threat to France and the French, as well as the possibility of expanding French nuclear defense to the rest of Europe. He expressed hope for cooperation to be achieved by the end of the first half of 2025, after technical talks with other leaders, including Poland. This – of course – did not happen, but the door has now been reopened.

France increases and modernizes its nuclear arsenal

France also intends to focus on modernizing and properly increasing its nuclear arsenal because – as Macron declared – the next half-century will be an “age of nuclear weapons.” He announced an increase in the number of nuclear warheads (currently around 290, reduced from over 300 in recent years).

An element of the capabilities expansion will also be a new strategic ballistic missile submarine — The Invincible — which will enter service in 2036 and will provide a second attack capability, currently provided by four units of the class triumphant based on Île Longue near Brest.

Paris will also stop publicly reporting their numbers, as it has done so far. Nor will it reveal the definition of its “vital interests,” the violation of which could lead to a nuclear response — in order to further complicate an adversary’s calculations.

Ultimately, there is no great revolution on the French side, but it is clear that Poland is part of the allied discussions on nuclear deterrence. For years, pragmatic Paris has invited cooperation.

Even if these are only preliminary talks, joint exercises and plans involving nuclear issues could be undertaken within a few years, in cooperation with the United Kingdom or the United States. And later perhaps even within his own abilities...

The Geopost