China and Russia face the crisis in Iran

China and Russia, Iran's two main partners, are facing potential strategic consequences as the conflict with the United States and Israel enters its fourth week.

According to expert Zineb Riboua from the Hudson Institute, recent developments are reshaping Beijing's role in the Middle East and directly challenging its interests in the region.

In an interview for Radio Free EuropeRiboua believes that the attacks on Iran are also indirectly weakening China's position. She points out that Beijing has benefited from an aggressive Iran, which through its networks and militias has challenged American influence in a key region for global energy.

The expert highlights that Iran has been an important partner for China both in avoiding international sanctions, as well as in strategic projects such as the "Belt and Road".

The 25-year agreement between the two countries, which envisaged investments of hundreds of billions of dollars, is considered an important pillar of this relationship.

However, according to her, Beijing is maintaining a cautious stance and has not intervened directly in support of Tehran. Riboua argues that China sees the Iranian regime as weakened and in danger of collapse, which makes greater engagement unreasonable.

“You can’t help a regime in decline,” she says, citing Iran’s internal problems, such as high inflation, unemployment and poor economic management.

On the other hand, China is trying to balance relations with Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are crucial to its energy and economic interests.

As for Russia, Riboua believes that Russia risks losing an important partner in opposing NATO. However, she adds that Moscow is now less dependent on Iran than in the past, especially after the changes in Syria and other regions.

The expert emphasizes that any attempt by Iran to escalate the situation, including the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, would be dangerous and of limited effect.

In conclusion, Riboua warns that even if the conflict does not lead to a complete regime change in Iran, China will find it much more difficult to use it as a strategic instrument, while the balance of power in the Middle East is expected to change significantly.