Kalesnikava: Without European engagement, Belarus risks falling completely into Russia's orbit

One of the leading figures of the 2020 anti-government protests in Belarus, Maria Kalesnikava, has called for Europe to reengage with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, arguing that the regime's complete isolation is not helping to improve the situation in the country.

In an interview with The Kyiv Independent, Kalesnikava said that opening communication channels with Lukashenko is necessary to stop repression, release political prisoners, and prevent the deterioration of the security situation in Europe.

After suppressing nationwide protests in 2020, Lukashenko became internationally isolated and increasingly supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin. His isolation deepened after Belarus was used as a staging ground for Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

However, according to Kalesnikava, the idea of ​​reengaging with the Belarusian regime is gaining support, especially after several diplomatic efforts by the United States. She noted that three visits by American delegations have led to the release of 189 political prisoners, as well as the easing of some sanctions on the Belarusian national airline Belavia and potash exports.

Kalesnikava emphasized that the purpose of communication with Lukashenko is not to normalize relations with his regime.

"Launching these diplomatic initiatives does not imply agreement with Lukashenko's policies or politics, nor does it imply friendship or support — absolutely not," she said.

“The goal is to understand how we can liberate people, stop repression, and lift the isolation of the country. We need to understand what Lukashenko wants. We need to at least ask him.”

Kalesnikava was released from prison with five years left to serve on her sentence. She said her and other women's experiences in prison, including mental and physical pressure, motivated her to seek diplomatic engagement to secure the release of political prisoners.

"I'm thinking about the women who have spent five years in prison and those who have serious health problems. I'm thinking about dozens more who still have many years to serve. My priority is to speak out for these people and do everything possible to secure their release," she said.

According to her, even symbolic diplomatic gestures can influence Lukashenko's decisions. She cited a post by US President Donald Trump on the social network Truth Social in August 2025, where he referred to Lukashenko as the "highly respected president of Belarus" after a phone call between them.

Kalesnikava said that this post was broadcast daily on television inside the prison and that, although Lukashenko saw it as support, it also led to the release of some prisoners.

Meanwhile, Trump's special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, has stated that he aims to release all people arrested following protests against the 2020 presidential election.

However, repression in Belarus continues. Although more than 300 people have been released after diplomatic negotiations, the number of political prisoners in the country remains over 1,100.

Kalesnikava believes that the European Union should begin a controlled process of reengagement using sanctions as a tool of pressure, while at the same time opening up more opportunities for Belarusian citizens.

“No matter how much we don’t want to admit it, Lukashenko is the only person who makes decisions about the lives of Belarusians in Belarus,” she said. “It depends on him how long the repression will last and how many people will become victims.”

She also referred to a document drafted by Belarusian analysts, called the “Roadmap for Limited De-Escalation,” which suggests that gradually reducing tensions with Belarus could help alleviate the humanitarian crisis and reduce Minsk’s dependence on Moscow.

Meanwhile, Belarus' involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine further complicates the process. In late 2025, Lukashenko agreed to deploy the Russian Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system on Belarusian territory.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia has also installed systems that help guide Russian drones towards targets in Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Kalesnikava said the deployment of such weapons and the possible presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is "repugnant and dangerous," but added that diplomatic engagement could help prevent the country from becoming deeper involved in the war.

According to her, Russia's harsh reaction to efforts for re-engagement between Belarus and the West shows that this strategy can have real impact.

"If Putin has started to react and is afraid of this, then that means we have achieved something," she said.

However, the official policy of the European Union remains unchanged: the EU continues to support the Belarusian opposition, including leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, while keeping Lukashenko isolated.

Kalesnikava warns that Belarus' continued isolation from Europe could have long-term consequences, especially for younger generations.

She points out that restrictions on travel and education could push young Belarusians towards Russia for studies and other opportunities.

"If it is impossible to study in Vilnius, Warsaw or Berlin, they will study where it is possible – in Moscow or St. Petersburg," she said.

Kalesnikava expressed concern that without greater commitment from Europe, Belarus could risk losing its connection with the West and falling completely into Russia's orbit.

"I fear only one thing: that Belarus will become part of Russia and be lost to Europe for decades," she concluded.

The Geopost