Finnish intelligence: Support from China and Iran is making Russia more resistant to sanctions

A new report by Finland's military intelligence estimates that Russia perceives Western liberal democracies as an existential threat and that the war in Ukraine has become the Kremlin's main tool to weaken the West and reshape the international order.

According to the report, the Russian regime considers Western liberal democracy a threat to its stability and aims to undermine Western influence using the war in Ukraine, other regional conflicts, and hostile hybrid actions.

Moscow's main focus remains the former Soviet Union, with particular emphasis on Ukraine, even at the expense of achieving other strategic objectives.

Finnish intelligence analysis highlights that the Russian way of waging war has entered a new phase, characterized by continued efforts to limit losses and cushion external pressure.

The report notes that the Kremlin is managing to effectively circumvent Western sanctions, largely thanks to active cooperation with third countries.

According to estimates, Russia has moved from a relatively self-sufficient economic model to a system based on a vast network of international relations, where the transfer of capital, raw materials, and industrial components – especially from outside the Western sphere – plays a key role in keeping its economic and military capabilities alive.

The key role of China and India in the energy sector

The report highlights the strategic importance of China and India in maintaining the stability of the Russian energy sector. According to Finnish intelligence, by the fall of 2025, these two countries together purchased about 90 percent of Russia's oil exports.

This high level of purchases has not only mitigated the loss of the European market, but has also changed the way Moscow perceives its trade relations.

On the one hand, Russia accepts less favorable financial conditions, but on the other hand it ensures relatively stable demand, giving it the ability to plan and manage war expenses in the long term.

According to the report, this situation challenges initial assumptions that economic pressure and sanctions would be sufficient to limit Russia's ability to wage a protracted conflict.

Finnish intelligence notes that support for the Russian arms industry by countries such as China, Iran and North Korea has even more serious consequences.

This support is not limited to deliveries of specific weapons or components, but also includes reducing production risks through access to alternative supply chains, mechanisms for circumventing sanctions, and maintaining the pace of military production.

As a result, the report concludes that the chances of winning the "economic war" against Russia are lower than predicted at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.

Multilateral proxy war and the consequences for Europe

From this perspective, Russia's war against Ukraine is increasingly seen as an indirect multilateral conflict.

Its course no longer depends solely on Moscow's ability to mobilize domestic resources, but also on the strategic calculations of non-Western actors who see Russia's support as in their own interest.

For Europe, this means that the effectiveness of pressure on Russia is closely linked to policies towards these third countries, and not just to imposing new rounds of sanctions.

The report confirms that the Russian regime is currently focused on winning the war in Ukraine, but in parallel is also implementing reforms in the armed forces.

If these reforms are fully implemented, they could lead to a significant increase in the Russian military presence near Finland's borders, increasing the risk of tensions and a potential conflict in the region.

However, despite these developments, Finnish intelligence estimates that there are no indications of a direct Russian military attack on Finland during 2026, reports Defense24.

The Geo Post