US intelligence agencies have warned that the Western Balkans remains an area of heightened political tensions and external influences, highlighting Russia's destabilizing role in the region.
The report published on March 18 by the Office of the US Director of National Intelligence, "Annual Threat Assessment 2026", notes that the war in Ukraine has deepened divisions between the West and Moscow, which are also reflected in the Balkans.
According to the report, Russia “foments instability between Serbia, which it favors, and Kosovo” and also “supports the separation of the Serbian entity, Republika Srpska, from Bosnia and Herzegovina.”
American services assess that ethnic and political divisions in the region remain pronounced and pose a security risk, especially when combined with the influence of foreign actors.
The report describes the Western Balkans as a space where the interests of great powers collide, while existing crises and unresolved disputes, including relations between Kosovo and Serbia and internal political relations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, remain major sources of instability.
The document also warns of more global threats, including growing competition between the US, China and Russia, as well as the risk from cyberattacks and technologies that could be used to destabilize states.
The report also notes the ongoing challenges from terrorism, organized crime and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Although the capacities of major terrorist organizations have been weakened, the risk of low-intensity attacks remains present, including in Europe.
According to American services, The Balkans is considered an area particularly vulnerable to external influences and requires constant attention to maintain regional stability and security.
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