"Better Deal": What's Behind Trump's Rejection of Iran's Ceasefire Offer?

Donald Trump has rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; according to experts, the US president believes that Washington has more to gain by waiting than by accepting Tehran's conditions at this time.

"I reject their proposal," Trump told reporters on Saturday, arguing that Iran is seeking a deal because it is "losing badly," the Telegraph reports.

"They want to make a deal and I think that's fine. I would like to make a deal too. But that deal would not be acceptable," Trump said.

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had seen Trump's initial reaction to his proposal but had not yet received a response through intermediaries.

In recent diplomatic efforts, Qatar has played a mediating role in talks between Iran and the US, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York.

Iran's seven-day proposal included lifting Washington's naval blockade of Iranian ports, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil sales, unblocking frozen Iranian assets (estimated at $12 billion), and adhering to a broader regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Yemen.

Iran would then reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations with Washington for a final agreement.

The latest proposals are similar to the June memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by both countries.

However, the memorandum collapsed last month due to disagreements over the terms of the agreement, which led to an escalation of attacks, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which essentially remains under Iranian blockade.

According to experts, Trump's refusal suggests that, while both sides continue to publicly keep the door open for diplomacy, they still remain far apart on the issue of who should make the first concessions.

"Trump's calculation seems pretty clear. He believes that the combination of the naval blockade and economic isolation is squeezing Iran so hard that Tehran's latest proposal is a sign of weakness rather than an offer that Washington should take advantage of," Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King's College London, told Al Jazeera.

His public argument that Iran is "losing badly" is important because it suggests that he thinks time is improving the US's negotiating position, Krieg said.

Why does Trump think he can wait?

A key part of Trump's calculation appears to be the belief that economic pressure on Iran has not yet reached its peak or end.

The Trump administration has intensified economic pressure on Tehran, tightening the naval blockade, imposing sanctions targeting Iranian oil revenues and threatening secondary sanctions on countries that do business with Tehran.

Last week, the US imposed sanctions on Iran's aviation sector, halting flights. This came weeks after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic pressure campaign against Iran, promising to target Tehran's financial interests around the world.

Richard Weitz, senior non-resident fellow at the NATO Defense College, told Al Jazeera that the White House may believe it can "wait a little bit and secure better terms."

There is also concern in Washington about the sequencing of steps proposed by Iran, he said.

Therefore, Weitz said Washington may be counting on "economic pressure over time to push the Iranian government to make more concessions."

"This is what happened, arguably, a decade ago, leading to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, after the Iranian government decided it needed to end economic sanctions in exchange for concessions regarding its nuclear program," he added.

Therefore, it is possible that "we will see the same type of exchange in the coming months."

Iran can make Trump "pay"

However, waiting for a deal also carries significant political risk for the US president, experts said, because his Republican Party could lose the November midterm elections.

A recent August Reuters/Ipsos poll suggested that 63 percent of Americans opposed a U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, while 31 percent supported it. Rising fuel and transportation costs could also add to broader concerns about the cost of living ahead of the election.

The problem for Trump is that time doesn't just increase pressure on Iran, Krieg said.

"The danger lies in the fact that time works both ways," he noted.

As the midterm elections approach, Trump doesn't want to appear as if he is lifting the blockade, lifting oil sanctions and unblocking Iranian assets just to regain access to a waterway that Iran itself blocked, Krieg said.

"But every additional week also means higher energy prices, continued military exposure and increasing pressure on Gulf partners," he added.

The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off oil and gas flows from Gulf countries, which depend on energy exports to finance their budgets.

However, Iran may decide to "make Trump pay for rejecting the proposal and for the increased economic pressure the country is experiencing."

The Republican Party is not doing well in the polls and a number of its candidates are "distancing" from Trump, he noted.

Polls showed that Republicans could lose their narrow majority in the US Congress.

It's not just the Iranians who are under severe economic pressure due to the US naval blockade and ongoing sanctions; "it's also the Trump administration," Elmasry said.

Trump's expectation of more concessions from Iran could backfire

Trump "wants Tehran to reopen Hormuz without Washington paying the full economic and political cost that Iran is currently demanding," Krieg said.

"The danger lies in the fact that he is confusing Iranian suffering with Iran's willingness to capitulate. These are not the same thing," he added.

Iran is clearly under pressure. Krieg said that sanctions and blockades are having a severe effect (“biting”), and that is precisely why Tehran needs a deal.

But additional pressure does not necessarily bring additional concessions. Instead, Iran could increase the costs of conflict to its adversaries, Krieg said, including actions in the Strait of Hormuz, against regional infrastructure, and potentially in the Bab al-Mandeb, another strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

In recent weeks, the strategic weight of Bab al-Mandeb has increased significantly, as Houthi rebels – who are backed by Iran – expanded their control over Yemen's Red Sea coastline.

This advance has effectively given the Houthis unrestricted access to this narrow sea passage; a worrying development for global shipping, given the group's history of targeting ships – including those linked to Israel – in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza.

The Houthis have already declared a naval blockade of Saudi ships in the Red Sea, which Riyadh had begun using as an alternative shipping route alongside Hormuz for its oil exports.

"So this could backfire on them. Trump thinks Iran's clock is ticking faster than America's. Tehran thinks the opposite: that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, global energy markets and, ultimately, Trump himself, have a lower tolerance for prolonged disruptions than Iran has for economic sanctions," Krieg warned.

Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also told Al Jazeera that Tehran may now be "less concerned about overstating its stance than understating it."

According to Harrison, Tehran now sees the risk of escalation as less costly than accepting something prematurely or showing a willingness to compromise, especially after Washington's reaction to the proposal.

In an interview with Al Jazeera broadcast on Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country no longer trusts negotiations with Washington, after previous rounds of talks saw attacks followed by sanctions.

"We do not trust the American side and we do not know on what basis an agreement can be reached with it," Pezeshkian said.

Tehran is relying "strongly" on time

US-based analyst Harrison noted that Tehran was probably "not at all surprised" by Trump's rejection and saw the offer partly as a way to show Iranians and the American public that the country remained willing to negotiate.

Experts said Tehran understands that the US president is looking for a way out that he can present as a victory.

"Iran is relying heavily on time... Its strategy is to keep the pressure high enough so that it eventually returns to negotiations, while making that way out increasingly costly," Krieg said.

"The Iranian calculation is basically: Don't give Trump the deal for free, when he may need it more desperately in a few weeks or months," he added.

Harrison said the Iranian offer was a "goodwill gesture," intended to demonstrate Iran's willingness to negotiate to both its domestic audience and the American public.

According to Krieg, "prolongation" of the conflict was the "most likely outcome."

"Both sides need an agreement, but currently both think that waiting will improve the agreement they will eventually reach," he added.