Serwer: Vučić, through the “Serbian World,” will destabilize the Balkans and bring an end to Serbia’s European perspective

Daniel Serwer, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, says that student protests in Serbia have the potential to lead to political change, but he doubts they will be able to overthrow the current government due to the strong control President Aleksandar Vučić exercises over political and electoral processes.

Writing on the Peacefare platform, Serwer notes that Vučić is well known for the way he neutralizes popular protests—through symbolic dismissals of ministers, calling early elections, and manipulating the electoral process—without seriously putting his power at risk.

According to Serwer, Vučić is unlikely to repeat the mistake made by Slobodan Milošević by allowing relatively free and fair elections; instead, he will be even more careful to ensure the desired outcome.

Commenting on recent actions by the Serbian authorities, including the detention of critics and symbolic mobilizations such as “Ćaciland,” Serwer stresses that these are all part of a strategy designed to guarantee “zero risk” to Vučić’s political survival.

Regarding the European Union’s stance, Serwer criticizes the lack of stronger pressure on the Serbian regime but emphasizes that the EU should not be expected to “take the side of the students.” Rather, he argues, the EU should stand by its own values. In his view, the rule of law and democracy should take precedence over interests such as lithium, artificial stability, or fears of Russian influence.

Speaking about Vučić’s attempts to get closer to former U.S. President Donald Trump—through efforts to sell the former General Staff (Generalštab) building to Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner—Serwer suggests that the withdrawal from this deal may indicate a cooling of relations with Washington. He sees this as a positive development, as it reduces the likelihood that the rule of law and democracy will be “sold off” for short-term interests.

Regarding the so-called concept of the “Serbian World,” Serwer warns that it represents a modernized version of the “Greater Serbia” project, which, according to him, brings the risk of destabilization, death, and destruction across the Balkans, just as in the 1990s.

The American professor adds that this approach would close Serbia’s European perspective and endanger the security and prosperity of its citizens.

As for the future of the region in 2026, Serwer expresses pessimism, predicting further stagnation in regional relations. He sees the main hope for progress in EU membership for Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia, while noting that Serbia has chosen a much slower path.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Serwer does not expect a quick end. He says there may be a ceasefire or even an agreement, but believes Ukraine will continue to resist ongoing Russian aggression, stressing that a rapid victory for Kyiv is unlikely without support from the United States. /TheGeoPost.