Vladimir Sazonov and Urmas Asi write for The Geopost
Introduction
In this article we discuss what could happen if Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the dictatorial administration of Chechnya (occupied by Russia) disappeared from the political scene. Our questions are:
• First, what will happen to Chechnya if Ramzan Kadyrov dies or is in such a state that he is no longer able to govern Chechnya? What is the Kremlin’s plan and has a successor already been found? There has been much talk and speculation about who might succeed Kadyrov.
• Secondly, will the Kremlin be able to keep Chechnya under Russia’s control for long, or will the Chechen Republic “slip” from Moscow’s iron grip?
• Thirdly, what opportunities will anti-Kadyrov Chechens have once Kadyrov disappears from the political scene? Can Chechnya become independent?
Why Chechnya matters to the Kremlin, especially in the context of Russia’s declining influence in the Caucasus.
We can see that the Kremlin’s iron grip and influence in the Caucasus is fading. Recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh have vividly confirmed this. Yerevan no longer has such a powerful ally in the Kremlin on which Armenia can rely in its current and likely future conflicts with Baku. It is not so much a matter of a change in the Kremlin’s moral preferences, but the war with Ukraine is demanding a great deal of their attention, and the logistical prospects in such a situation make it rather more important for them now to get on better terms with Azerbaijan. They will rekindle relations with Armenia later. Armenia simply does not have any choice in this respect as it does not have many friends in the neighbourhood. Chechnya is in a similar situation but, despite centuries of attempts by the Russian Empire to make Chechnya part of itself and despite its best efforts to control Chechnya, it has not succeeded in doing so. Of course, Moscow would be interested in a change in the current precarious situation for them, but given the developments in Ukraine, including the decision adopted by the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) on 18.10.2022 that Chechnya is a territory temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation, Moscow would also be interested in maintaining the current semblance of control over Chechnya, if only to avoid losing the region altogether. Why?
First, let us not forget that Chechnya has considerable oil reserves. Let us not forget also that the Grozny oil field was one of the largest oil-producing areas in the territory of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union has now declined, but the oil is still there. If Russian sources are to be believed, more than 150 oil and gas deposits have been discovered in 22 fields in Chechnya since 2010, with reserves ranging from hundreds of thousands of tonnes to millions of tonnes.
Secondly, it is possible that the liberation of Chechnya would mean a domino effect for Putin’s empire, triggering a moderate wave of separatism in the Russian Federation, and several other “republics” could probably seek greater autonomy. At this stage, of course, this is merely conjecture. In any case, the occupation of the Chechen Republic is key to the continuation of Putin’s empire. Putin is therefore obviously well aware of who will take over the mantle of Chechnya’s “emir” and how to keep Chechnya under the Kremlin’s control and vassalage in the future. One can only hope that this will provide an opportunity for Chechens who oppose Kadyrov and Putin to try to re-launch the struggle to liberate Chechnya. In that case, the government of the Chechen Republic in exile and their supporters in Europe would play a role. At the same time, it is well known that Russian influence has been at work in Chechnya for decades, with special services actively operating and many people having been intimidated.
In late 2023 we organised an interview with Magomed Murtuzaliev, Minister of Economy and Finance of the Chechen Republic in exile and member of the Chechen Republic’s government in exile, in which participated Peeter Oissar, Honorary Consul of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in the Republic of Estonia since July 2023, during which we discussed several of the above issues. If there are to be changes in Chechnya, the Chechen communities living abroad will have to be taken into account as many people living in Chechnya have been brainwashed by Russian and Kadyrov propaganda and have been frightened away.
Chechen communities in Europe as a target auditorium for Russian influence
In the interview, Murtuzaliev also stressed that there are nearly 400,000 Chechens living in the European Union who arrived in the EU and asked for political asylum because of the occupation and genocide taking place in their country, orchestrated by the Kremlin and pro-Kremlin forces. “If we are talking about Europe, I can tell you with certainty that, according to the statistics of the European Union, there are up to four hundred thousand citizens of the Chechen Republic of Itchkeria on the territory of the European Union who have come to the European Union and have requested political asylum because of the occupation and genocide of the citizens of the Chechen Republic of Itchkeria that is taking place.” The Minister added, “This is the genocide that has been taking place on the territory of our country for the last decades, carried out by the Russian occupation forces under the leadership of Putin, but it started with Yeltsin and he passed the baton to Putin.”
This huge number of people did not come to the EU over one or two years but over a couple of decades, after the first and second Russia-Chechnya wars. Murtuzaliev added that “everything that Russia did in the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, which the world unfortunately accepted at the time, is everything that Russia has since applied in Ukraine, hoping that the civilised world will again swallow up what it had already swallowed up.” Murtuzaliev outlines the Kremlin’s logic which he claims is as follows. Moscow claims that “we are a nuclear state in Syria and we are a nuclear state there, we are a nuclear state in Ukraine, etc. a nuclear state here, so be kind, this is our wish, we want to kill people there and kill people here and tomorrow we can kill somewhere else.”
Russian propaganda and special services
In the process of the de-escalation of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, in addition to the military aggression by Russia in the 1990s and later until 2009, Moscow used propaganda and blackmail as well as special services. These same things also apply to Chechen communities in the EU. Speaking of the Russian special services and their interest in Chechens in Europe, Murtuzaliev said that even he had been approached for recruitment. In his words, “I had the opportunity to become an agent of the Federal Security Service, who would now sit here in front of you and talk about how Kadyrov is all of us, who would claim that Kadyrov is the best politician and that Kadyrov is the best geo-strategist—who would also claim that Kadyrov is the father of the nation for all of us (Chechens), whatever he calls himself now, right.” Murtuzaliev claims that he was recruited in a similar way to many other Chechens living in Europe: “It was not Kadyrov, but the Russian Federal Security Service that sent the man who was supposed to recruit me.”
Prospects after Kadyrov
Obviously, with the disappearance of Kadyrov there will be a power vacuum and it is difficult to predict what might happen and who might be the next Putin loyalist in Chechnya. This is because Ramzan Kadyrov’s sons are still too young—although one is already being portrayed as a hero on Kadyrov’s propaganda channels where Kadyrov’s son quite innocently beats an alleged traitor. The eldest of Kadyrov’s children, however, is his daughter Aishat, born in 1998, who is currently 25 years old and will serve as Minister of Culture of the occupied Chechen Republic in the Russian administration from 2021. Despite her high position, there is very little likelihood of Aishat becoming her father’s successor, for several reasons. The next oldest child is Hadijat, born in 2000, also a woman. The other children (including sons) are younger. The oldest of the sons, Ahmat, born in 2005, is yet only 18. Thus, there is no heir apparent for him in the near future from Kadyrov’s own family.
One possible candidate could be Adam Delimhanov, a 1969-born ally of Kadyrov, who has also been heavily promoted on his channel throughout the war. In addition, he has held a number of very important positions, including commander in chief of Rosgvardnadzor Chechnya and deputy chairman of the government of the occupied Chechen Republic (2006–2007). He has been a deputy to the State Duma of the Russian Federation and a member of the United Russia Party.
Other names have been mooted as possible successors to Ramzan Kadyrov. Magomed Daudov, Muslim Huchiev, Khas-Magomed Kadyrov and Ahmat Kadyrov have been suggested. Let us look at the options the Kremlin might consider.
One possible successor to the mantle is Muslim Huchiev (born 1971), who has been a civil servant. He has been the Chairman of the Chechen puppet government since June 2018 and has served as Acting President of the occupied Chechen Republic (11–16 February 2019, 13–21 January 2020). He also served as Minister of Economy, Territorial Development and Trade from 2013–2015, then as Mayor of Grozny from 2015–2018. As in the case of Ramzan, he is a rather brutal and crude figure, loyal to Putin and Kadyrov. As of 2019, Muslim Huchiyev is under US sanctions for his involvement in torture and as of 2023 under EU sanctions for the deportation of Ukrainian children during the attack on Ukraine.
Perhaps another option being considered in Moscow is the notorious Kadyrov relative Khas-Magomed Kadyrov, who is still quite young (born in 1991), who will be the mayor of Grozny from 29 March 2021, but who does not have as much experience as Delimkhanov, Huchiev or Daudov. His kinship with Ramzan Kadyrov does, however, give him certain advantages.
However, assuming that Putin’s regime collapses in the near future (there are currently no signs to suggest that it will), other developments are possible in Chechnya and could be surprising. It is not impossible that the Chechens in exile will be able to create a reasonably functioning new government, and that Chechnya will free itself from the yoke of Russia and restore its independence. If such a thing were to come to pass, Chechnya would have the opportunity to establish normal relations with the EU, Turkey and other countries and get out of Russia’s sphere of influence. However, this would only be possible if Russia is defeated in the war against Ukraine, the Putin regime falls, and the “Russian world” or terrorist system in Russia begins to disintegrate. At the moment, this scenario does not seem very realistic in the short term as it would require a major simultaneous shift of power at several levels—both in the Kremlin and in Chechnya at the same time. The Chechen crisis of power alone will not be enough as Moscow well understands that a crack in the current system would lead to the loss of the entire Caucasus and possibly to a destabilisation of the Russian regime. That is why today’s Chechen puppet government is being kept in place at all costs. How Putin succeeds in doing so remains to be seen./The Geopost/