What does Russia’s security chief arriving in Iran mean for the Middle East?

A high-ranking Russian delegation led by Sergei Shoigu, secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, arrived in Tehran on August 5 for strategic talks with Iranian officials, state media reported.

The timing of the visit is critical for Iran as it prepares its retaliation against Israel for the death of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who is believed to have been killed by a hidden explosive in his high-security accommodation placed by Israel’s spy agency Mossad. Iran has officially blamed Israel for Haniyeh’s death and said it would “avenge” him.

The visit, at the invitation of Ali Akbar Ahmadian, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, aims to strengthen bilateral relations and discuss regional and international issues, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.

Shoigu is scheduled to meet with senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, during his stay.

The trip underscores the growing strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia, two countries facing Western sanctions and sharing increasingly close ties in recent years.

Key points of discussion are expected to include bilateral political and security relations, regional security issues, potentially including the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and economic cooperation in the face of international sanctions.

Neither Iranian nor Russian officials have released details about the length of Shoigu’s stay or specific agenda items for the talks.

The Russian official’s visit comes hours after Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who was believed to have relayed a message from the US over Iran’s potential retaliation against Israel.

“The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh as a religious thinker, memoriser of the Qur’an, prominent politician of the Arab world, a great Palestinian figure and a great mujahid of Islamic resistance, is an act against all standards of international law and custom,” Iran’s acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani said at his meeting with his Jordanian counterpart.

Russia and Iran specialist Nicole Bayat Grajewski said on X.com that “Shoigu will not only meet with Ahmadian but also chief of the Iranian General Staff Bagheri and President Pezeshkian, Patrushev wouldn’t always meet with military officials in his trips to Iran but Shoigu and Bagheri have a pretty extensive track record of working together.”

Russia’s Izvestia regional expert Andrey Ontikov said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be driving the escalation with Iran.

“If Netanyahu stops his operation in the Gaza Strip now, an investigation will begin into why the Hamas attack on 7 October [2023] happened. Netanyahu risks not only losing his post as prime minister but also ending up behind bars,” Ontikov told Russian media. Netanyahu has been blamed for Israel’s lack of preparedness for the Hamas attack; he is also facing long-standing corruption charges.

The expert added Iran is seeking a measured response to Haniyeh’s killing. “Iran is now actively contacting various parties through intermediaries and developing a formula for a retaliatory reaction that will allow Tehran to save face,” he said.

Ontikov cautioned against expectations of a swift resolution to regional conflicts, particularly the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

“It’s difficult for me to imagine that a solution will be found in the coming years. This problem has existed for decades, and they can’t seem to resolve it. The fact is that it’s a religious conflict,” he noted./Intellinews/