THE BATTLE OVER US FOREIGN POLICY

Janusz Bugajski

Two visions of America have emerged in the battle for the US presidency – the internationalist and the isolationist. While the re-election of Joe Biden in November would confirm the maintenance of US alliances, the re-election of Donald Trump could herald a new world disorder in which America would withdraw from much of its security responsibilities, including in the Western Balkans.

The Biden administration can rightly be criticized for its foreign policy timidity and lack of focus. This has been evident in its slow supply of the most essential weapons for Ukraine’s defense against Russian expansionism. Democratic Party shortcomings are also visible in Washington’s failed policies in the Western Balkans. They have placated the Serbian regime in the groundless hope that Belgrade would turn away from Moscow and become a constructive regional player.

Nevertheless, Biden’s failures will not be comparable to a new Trump presidency. Trump will no longer be restrained by experienced Republican internationalists in his administration, as was the case in the previous government. He has made it clear that only loyalists will be appointed to senior positions and no disagreements will be tolerated. He has even pledged to revenge himself against critics and opponents. The election campaign itself will exacerbate domestic polarization and radicalization and distract from major international developments. If Trump is not imprisoned for numerous financial crimes or for planning an insurrection in January 2021 then his re-election cannot be discounted.

On Trump’s orders, Republicans in Congress have already challenged a foreign and security policy that has been traditionally bipartisan. They are obstructing the passage of a $106 billion budget in supplemental funding to bolster the military capabilities of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Further delays in providing these vital funds will weaken America’s global role and embolden its adversaries, particularly Russia, China, and Iran.

Another Trump presidency would likely overturn Washington’s security posture and push America toward isolationism. The White House would no longer be restricted by the Republican establishment or by Congress. Trump’s foreign policy threats have included leaving NATO, withdrawing US troops from Europe, allowing Russia to keep captured territories in Ukraine, and curtailing military support for Israel and Taiwan.

In typically rambling recent speeches to his fanatical supporters Trump has even asserted that he would “encourage” Russia to attack any NATO member that did not meet its financial obligations by spending a minimum of 2% of GDP on defense. Eleven countries in the 31-member alliance have reached this target, with Poland as NATO’s top spender of almost 4%, and the trend remains positive. Trump’s comments demonstrate his misunderstanding of how NATO functions. It has no centralized budget but each country pays for its own defense. Trump’s threats would exclude Germany, France, Norway, Italy, Denmark, Canada, and several other allies from any American defense assistance.

Trump is an avid Putin admirer and envious of his dictatorial powers in Russia. His comments underscore that Europe can no longer automatically depend on the US and remains militarily unprepared for outright war with Moscow. Without the American presence, Europe’s low equipment levels and limited deployment capabilities would become evident. A major build up will be essential, as Europe’s militaries shrank from 3.4 million in 1989 to 1.3 million in 2022. At least €100 billion will needed by 2025 to boost weapons production to deter or defeat a potential Russian challenge.

Many senior Republicans understand the urgency and importance of Ukraine defeating one of America’s chief adversaries. Half of Russia’s army has already been destroyed in Ukraine and by spending less than 5% of the annual US defense budget the mission can be completed. However, very few incumbent Republicans will want to anger Trump as he could turn many of their voters against them in the upcoming congressional elections.

Trump’s return and a lessened US engagement in the Western Balkans will also encourage Belgrade to pursue its regional hegemony. If violence erupts in any of the countries targeted by the Vučić regime, the EU cannot be relied on to intervene and protect the independence of Kosova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, or Montenegro. It is therefore essential for all three states to build up their defenses in preparation for armed conflict, as Trump’s return would weaken America’s global role and encourage all expansionist dictatorships to accelerate their ambitions.

 Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of The Geopost.