Serbian politician Dragan Shormaz: “NIS” for Russia is an instrument of destabilization in Europe and an intelligence platform

After leading the country into an inexplicable political and diplomatic position, Aleksandar Vučić was forced to admit two truths that he had categorically denied until yesterday.

The first is that the Russian owners of NIS have neither had nor ever expressed any real willingness to sell their shares in the sanctioned company, a key link in Serbia’s energy security.

In this context, the question arises: on what basis did President Vučić and his team expect a new license from OFAC, when for ten consecutive months, together with the Russian side, they misinformed and deceived American institutions? With what credibility can Serbia ask anything from its international partners in the future, when it has sacrificed its reputation just to allow the sanctioned Russian company NIS to operate for another ten months?

Equally unclear is the assumption of Vučić and his unprofessional advisers that Janaf would accept the claim that imported crude oil would not end up in the hands of the Russian company, thus circumventing US sanctions. After all, what good would crude oil be to Serbia when the only refinery in the country is under sanctions?

The second truth that the Serbian president was forced to accept is the existence of real opportunities for diversifying gas supplies. Setting an ultimatum to the Russian side to confirm the new supply contract by Friday, Vučić warned that in the absence of a positive response, Serbia would start negotiations on securing gas from alternative sources.

The question arises: how is it possible that now, all of a sudden, there is talk of gas supplies from other sources, when Vučić and his spokesmen have been persistently convincing us for ten years that diversifying gas supplies was impossible? How was it possible that the most important economic and security issue of the Serbian state was approached in such a dilettante and deceptive manner?

Moreover, it has now become clear that both Vučić and Energy Minister Dubravka Handanović consciously deceived public opinion when they stated that they had only recently received an explicit request from the American authorities for the complete removal of Russian ownership of NIS. The sanctions document clearly stated “remove” from the very beginning, not “reduce” — Vučić and his advisers simply either did not want to or could not read it.

They also failed to understand the elementary fact that OFAC made the final decision on NIS on October 8 and that there will be no new decision until the required conditions are met.

The reality is that Russia has no strategic interest in selling NIS. Although speculation about a possible sale occasionally appears in public, any such transaction would be detrimental to Moscow – politically, financially and geopolitically.

Any amount of money collected by Gazprom Neft in the event of a sale would be blocked immediately as soon as it entered the international financial system. Moreover, an increasing number of countries intend to channel frozen Russian revenues into funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Such a scenario is strategically unacceptable for the Kremlin.

The sale would bring to light what Russia has actually gained from the 2008 agreement with Serbia. Any serious sale process implies an equally serious audit! This audit would openly expose that Serbia lost a strategic company, lost political guarantees (Kosovo, South Stream), and in return gained only dependence on Russian energy. For Moscow, such a revelation would be a strong blow to the region.

Through its majority ownership of NIS, Russia has economic, political, media and intelligence influence. NIS is a pressure mechanism on the Serbian government, a source of political influence, an instrument for buying and controlling the media, and a tool for intelligence operations in the region.

The Pančevo refinery has been operating for years without a complete overhaul, as Siemens—due to previous sanctions—refuses to supply key components. The sale would raise questions about the real state of the refinery and its compliance with safety standards.

Serbia is a key platform for Russian hybrid operations in the region and Europe. The Kremlin uses it as a logistical base, a financial center for clandestine money flows, a training ground for destabilizing groups, a propaganda center, and an instrument of political pressure. Losing NIS would mean losing the financial infrastructure and part of the Russian information apparatus.

For Russia, NIS is not just a company. It is a geopolitical lever, an intelligence platform, and an instrument for destabilizing Europe. For this very reason, Putin will not sell NIS to anyone — least of all to Serbia.

If you read Gazprom’s latest announcement, it becomes clear that the company is sending a message to the public that it will continue to operate normally, as if sanctions were not imposed, and that Serbian citizens can use its services without any problems. With this approach, they are actually putting the entire Serbian financial system at serious risk of secondary sanctions.

Just as Milošević brought the country into an unnecessary conflict with NATO, Russia today seeks to completely isolate Serbia and strengthen a deep anti-Western sentiment in it. They present themselves as “protectors”, but in reality they pose a threat to the essential interests of the Serbian people.

Finally, the extent of the Vučić regime’s lack of seriousness and servility towards the Kremlin is also shown by the Serbian president’s claim that American sanctions are contrary to international law.

Every first-year law student knows that not only is there no international norm prohibiting the imposition of sanctions against aggressor regimes, but on the contrary, the UN Charter provides for the right and obligation to take such measures in order to preserve peace and international legal order.

In the same way, nationalization is deliberately presented as “plunder,” although it is a legitimate mechanism for protecting and advancing the public interest. If this were not the case, any expropriation of land for the construction of a highway, for example, would have to be considered “communist plunder,” as Vučić and his propagandists have been trying to portray in recent months.

The policy of false neutrality and an illusory independence that surrenders whenever it clashes with Russian interests has reached its breaking point. Any attempt to continue on this course will have such a high cost that it will become unbearable for Serbia.

For this reason, Vučić will either have to start defending Serbia’s national interests and return to its citizens the state that the Russian factor has taken hostage, or he will face serious consequences – both for the country and for himself personally. The choice is his, if after all these developments he is still capable of making rational decisions./TheGeopost.

By: Dragan Shormaz