Serbia goes to the elections on 17 December with Milošević at the head and with Russia in the background

Serbia will hold extraordinary parliamentary elections on 17 December, the second in less than two years and the 14th since the introduction of multi-party systems in the 1990s.

They will elect a new parliament – i.e. a new government, a new provincial assembly in Vojvodina, as well as authorities in dozens of municipalities and cities.

Although Aleksandar Vucic, as President of Serbia, and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), together with their coalition partners, have a stable majority in the Serbian Parliament and in many municipalities, they have nevertheless decided to call extraordinary elections.

The explanatory memorandum of the proposal to call the elections announced that they could “ensure a higher degree of democracy, reduce tensions between opposing options in society, reject exclusivity and hate speech, and assert the right to freely express opinions and views on certain political, economic and other issues and the further affirmation of European values”.

It should be recalled that, following the two mass shooting attacks in May, large opposition protests have been taking place for half a year under the slogan “Serbia against violence” and that the opposition has called for elections.

The opposition’s position is that the cause of these tragic events is the climate of hatred spread by the leading state television stations. The opposition initially demanded the replacement of the TV leadership and only then the call for new elections, but Vucic decided to do the opposite and tactically outmaneuvering the opposition.

Estimates are that new elections will hardly strengthen Vucic’s presence in Parliament and that he will certainly not win a majority anymore.

Alliance with Šešelj

Above all, there is a high probability that the pro-government coalition will lose Belgrade, where the pro-Western opposition is gaining ground.

In the capital Belgrade, the Serbian authorities stand a good chance of losing control, where opposition sentiment is widespread.

At present, the SNS’s approval rating in Belgrade barely exceeds 30%, while that of the Socialists is around 7%.

To prevent an opposition victory in the capital, Vučić was forced to take a step he has so far studiously avoided – the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), together with the Vojislav Šešelj’s Serbian Radical Party (SRS), will stand in the elections in Belgrade and several other municipalities.

Recall that Šešelj was sentenced to ten years in prison in The Hague in 2018 for inciting persecution, deportation and forced displacement, the forced resettlement of Croats in the Vojvodina village of Hrtkovci in 1992.

The Vučić – Šešelj alliance is seen in Belgrade as a “business plan”

Zoran Stojiljković, a professor at the Belgrade Faculty of Political Science, sees the announced coalition of progressives and radicals in the December local elections.

“If you remember the previous elections, from one election to the next, Vučić won by expanding the coalition, i.e. by merging, in which someone sleeps as the opposition and wakes up as part of the ruling structure,” says Stojiljković.

According to him, this kind of cooperation is decided in order to preserve the position and avoid wasting votes.

“If you estimate that the elections will be uncertain, then the radicals falling below the census would hurt you, but their estimated eight to ten thousand votes could help you somewhat in a stalemate. So this is the general strategy, which is to start from the electoral threshold and make sure that no one falls below that threshold of three percent, because that can be decisive,” says Stojiljković.

“Our differences are at the republican level and there we will have separate lists and we will go to the elections separately,” Šešelj said on 1 November.

Although the Serbian President told reporters that there was no possibility for the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) to form a government with the radicals, who are strongly against Serbia’s European integration and in favour of close cooperation with the Russian Federation, the leader of the radicals told TV Happy that the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) was ready to enter the government “if a broader coalition at the republican level is needed, if the progressives cannot form a government on their own or together with the socialists”.

Later in the day, Vučić also spoke, saying that the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) would not “form a government” with the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) because of “differences in programmes”.

“We think that Serbia must protect both its European path and its traditional relations with Russia, China”, Vucic told reporters on 1 November.

Kosovo deal postponed for six months

At the same time, the elections give the Serbian authorities an excuse to postpone negotiations with the West on a compromise with Kosovo and sanctions against Russia.

“We are living in difficult times for the whole world, in times of global challenges, wars and conflicts, in times when we all need to be united in the fight to preserve vital national and state interests, in times when we will face many pressures, because of the relations with Kosovo, and other regional and global problems,” Vucic explained the need for new elections in his address.

He added that it is important for Serbia to maintain peace, stability and internal cohesion, and this campaign, he said, is an opportunity for all participants to present different policies and programmes in a civilised way, which at no time will jeopardise our vital national interests.

The previous parliamentary elections in Serbia were held a year and a half ago, in April 2022. As a result of these elections, Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) was left without a majority and was forced to form a coalition with its traditional allies, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).

Nevertheless, for six months after these elections, it was not possible to form a full government – this was only done at the end of last year.

But there was an explanation for the delay – unlike a full-fledged technical government, a full-fledged one has no right to decide on the imposition of sanctions against Russia, nor to negotiate a compromise with Kosovo, which Serbia still considers part of its territory.

The Serbian authorities have therefore, thanks to the long-standing coalition, been given a considerable respite, which has enabled them not to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation in future, but also not to make any concessions to Kosovo.

The desire to repeat this manoeuvre is one of the reasons for this new extraordinary elections – Vucic still believes that the West will get fed up with the war in Ukraine and will go into peace negotiations. This means that there is a possibility of postponing and not imposing sanctions on Russia, so as not to spoil relations with the Kremlin.

Thanks to the extraordinary elections, the Serbian authorities have the opportunity to postpone unpleasant issues until the middle of next year.

Nevertheless, it is already possible to say with a high degree of certainty that Vucic’s party will not succeed in strengthening its presence in Parliament. Although at first sight there is not much danger for the Vucic government, because it can always count on the continuation of the alliance with the Socialists.

Of course, such an alliance has certain drawbacks – the Socialist Party has a reputation for being more pro-Russian than the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Despite the fact that the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) stood separately in the parliamentary elections, the alliance in the local elections shows Vucic’s uncertainty about victory and the risk that pro-Russian and anti-Western radicals (much more radical than the Socialists) will start to influence the central government.

This is a scenario that Vucic has carefully avoided because it would put an end to his policy of balance between the West and Russia.

Since the beginning of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vucic has pursued a policy whose essence is very simple – to delay the imposition of sanctions against Russia, while preserving relations with the EU and the US.

Vucic met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and spoke about the constructiveness of relations with Ukraine, all with a view to easing Western pressure to join sanctions.

At the same time, the Serbian President is promising Putin that he will not agree to sanctions, thus positioning his country as a loyal friend of the Russian Federation.

There is growing criticism and calls for sanctions against Serbia in the West. They have intensified especially after the failed attempts by politicians close to Vucic to organise “armed protests” in the north of Kosovo.

And within the country, a pro-Western opposition has strengthened, pursuing a real, not a false, path to EU membership.

Slobodan Milosevic’s grandson is on the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) list

On 4 November, the Republican Election Commission announced the electoral list “Ivica Dačić Prime Minister of Serbia” and the municipal list “Ivica Dačić Prime Minister – Toma Fila Mayor” for participation in the upcoming elections on 17 December.

The leader of the list, gathered around the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), for the parliamentary elections is Ivica Dačić, followed by Dragan Marković Palma, leader of United Serbia, and Marko Milošević, grandson of former Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) leader and former President Slobodan Milošević, Marko.

Redefining relationship with the EU

In order to replace this government, it is necessary for the opposition to cooperate after the elections, says the president of Nova DSS Miloš Jovanović, while the leader of the Dveri movement Boško Obradović notes that Dveri would renounce itself if they were part of the republican government that accepts Western ultimatums.

In an interview for the FoNet news agency’s Kvaka 23 series, Obradović and Jovanović give different answers to the question why the two right-wing parties are not going to the elections together.

Jovanović explained that their partners were not ready to commit to post-election cooperation with the rest of the opposition, while Obradović claims that colleagues from the NADA coalition said that according to their research, the right wing gets more votes if it goes in two columns. .

In a way, this has been true, but Obradović is absolutely convinced that this will be an electoral, i.e. patriotic column, because “we are absolutely united in our position to immediately and completely reject the Franco-German ultimatum”.

He also stresses that he is ready to work with other opposition parties, but that he will present his policy in negotiations.

On the other hand, Jovanović, in an interview with Tamara Skroza, suggests that it is mathematically impossible to change the government without the opposition’s participation and that changing the government is his priority.

He believes that Vučić has turned some people into rags and invertebrates, and that the problem now is that he wants to turn the whole nation into rags.

“I understand the highways and standard, but when everything turns into a story about the economy and the standard, independent of the sacrifices we made to create this country, independent of the Kosovo commitment, independent of honour and honesty, then it really becomes a very, very negative thing,” Jovanovic believes.

Spirituality, honour, creativity and art are also important for a person, he stressed, warning that after Aleksandar Vucic, he will be the only one, because everything he does is disastrous for the nation.

Belgrade is important for the opposition and it would be terrible if it “fell”, said Jovanovic, who is aware that Vucic has inexhaustible financial resources at his disposal.

That is why he predicts that after the elections there will be bribery of the people, big blows to all parties and everything to reject the “Franco-German proposal”

Vuk Jeremic, President of the People’s Party, estimated that the party would have cooperated with the opposition coalition “Serbia Against Violence” if their ideological and programmatic differences were not important.

“The government that will be formed after the elections will have to ban lithium mining, stop excessive borrowing abroad and reject the Franco-German proposal. Otherwise, the People’s Party will not participate in this government”, Jeremić said on Prva TV.

He considered it necessary to redefine the relationship with the EU, to reject the European proposal for Kosovo and to refuse EU membership at the price of recognising Kosovo’s independence.

“What is important for us is economic relations with the EU. So the People’s Party is offering membership of the European Economic Area instead of membership of the EU”, Jeremić said.

Jeremic announced the presentation of the People’s Party candidate for mayor of Belgrade next week.

Greater Serbia

About ten days before the announcement of the coalition with the radicals, Vucic announced that he would appear at pre-election rallies with former Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) president and former head of state Tomislav Nikolic.

“This time we will work together to support the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)”, Vucic said on 21 October in Šabac at a celebration marking the 15th anniversary of the party of which he was until recently leader.

It was with Nikolic and Šešelj that Aleksandar Vučić began his political career three decades ago.

The Serbian Radical Party was founded by Vojislav Šešelj and his long-time deputy Tomislav Nikolic in early 1991 at the dawn of the wars in Croatia and BiH, and joined two years later by Aleksandar Vučić.

The party positioned itself as ultra-nationalist and Chetnik, and the backbone of its ideology was the idea of a “Greater Serbia”, including the territories of present-day Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Macedonia and part of Croatia.

During the wars in the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY), Vucic and Nikolic unquestioningly followed Šešelj’s ideology of a “Greater Serbia”, which, in addition to territorial expansion, also included the organisation of paramilitary formations and the spread of hatred against Croats, Bosniaks, Albanians and all others who were radicalised and who were supposedly a threat to the “Serbian national interest”.

Despite criticising the regime of Slobodan Milosevic at the time, the radicals entered into a ” government of national unity” with the Socialists in 1998. Šešelj and Nikolić were appointed deputy prime ministers, while Vučić became Minister of Information.

The government lasted until the 5 October changes in 2000, when mass demonstrations overthrew the Milosevic regime.

Three years later, the radical President Vojislav Šešelj voluntarily went to The Hague, where he was indicted by the International Court of Justice for war crimes during the wars in Croatia and BiH.

A few months before his departure, in an interview with TV BK, he said nice things about his then party Secretary General:

“As far as Aleksandar Vucic is concerned, his loyalty to the party has never been in question, I think he will be a loyal, committed, hard-working member of the party,” Šešelj said.

Vucic also had nice words to say about the party leader.

“He created us, he is someone with whom we became something … He is certainly one of the Serbian leaders who will be studied by history as a hero of the Serbian nation”, Vucic said in an interview with the weekly “Evropljanin” in October 2005.

A division of radicals and heavy words”.

But in September 2008, after 17 years, Tomislav Nikolic left the radicals and, together with ten other Serbian Radical Party (SRS) deputies, founded a new parliamentary club, “Napred Srbijo” (Forward Serbia), and a month later registered the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Aleksandar Vucic, who in principle rejects the radical Greater Serbia ideology and accepts Serbia’s European integration, joins the new party.

From the custody of the Hague court, Seselj launches a fierce attack on former party colleagues with whom he had close relations over the years. He accused them of being traitors who turned their backs on the party after receiving money from the West.

He immortalised his opinion of his former colleagues in several books: “The Hague denunciant Tomislav Nikolic”, “Spokesman for the thieves’ party Aleksandar Vucic” and “Serbian Baron Munchausen Aleksandar Vucic” are some of the titles.

Commenting on Šešelj’s announcement in 2009 that he was writing a book about him, Aleksandar Vučić told the daily Politika: “It would have been much better if Šešelj had kept quiet! It would have been enough for him to say two sentences and we would have seen him withdraw all the books in the world.”

A year later, Vucic told a press conference that Šešelj was “a fear and trembling only because of his unscrupulousness, nothing else”.

“One problem with Aleksandar Vucic is that I am not afraid of him at all and I know he is a little mouse,” Vucic added in July 2010.

But three years later, in an interview with “Nedeljnik”, Vucic softened his statements. He said that he had “respect” for Šešelj’s family and that he thought the same about the court’s indictment against Šešelj as he did when he was a member of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS).

“But I think our politics are different. I have nothing bad to say about him. My policy is leading Serbia into the future, and I do not think about the policies of others”, Vucic said on 11 October 2013.

Return to Serbia

In November 2014, after 11 years in detention, Vojislav Šešelj was released by the Hague court to await the first instance judgement.

He returns to Serbia, where his two former companions have ruled for two years: Tomislav Nikolic is President of the country and Aleksandar Vučić is Prime Minister.

On the plane back from The Hague, Šešelj told the media that he would not cooperate with the authorities, but would fight against them.

“Serbia needs to get rid of this government, bring the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) to power, give up this European path, ally with Russia and it will definitely be better”, Šešelj said.

At a press conference in Belgrade in November 2014, he announced “a great mobilisation of our own membership and all Serbian patriots” to counter the pro-European policies of the Serbian government then led by Aleksandar Vucic.

“There is no better media manipulator on the Serbian political scene, and there is unlikely to be one born any time soon”, Šešelj said of his former party leader in an interview with NIN in March 2014.

Meanwhile, the leader of the radicals has considerably softened his criticism of Aleksandar Vučić, who won two presidential mandates after his premiership. Šešelj has become an almost daily guest on private TV stations close to the Vucic regime.

“On Kosovo, the country’s President Aleksandar Vučić is extremely clear and that is why he has our support,” Šešelj said in a guest interview on Television Prva in April 2023.

A year earlier, Šešelj’s Serbian Radical Party supported Vučić in the presidential elections held in April 2022./The Geopost/