Disinformation and psychological interference, cyberattacks, emerging disruptive technologies, sabotage, election interference, economic interference, instrumentalization of migration – these are just some of the topics the Hybrid Center of Excellence deals with when dealing with hybrid threats. The Head of International Relations at CoE Hybrid, Tapio Pyysalo, talks about the scope of their work, the weaknesses of Western Balkan countries in dealing with inter-ethnic tensions, the whole-of-society approach that governments should take and the importance of this cooperation between all members of the EU and NATO in addressing future challenges.
According to their analysis, Russia actually wants to maintain its sphere of influence in the Western Balkans region, and integrating the countries into the EU would undermine this overarching Russian goal. Pyysalo points out that one of the Center’s main concerns recently has been the use of generative AI in the spread of disinformation and how it can actually be used to counter it. He also talks about the Finnish experience in successfully dealing with foreign information manipulation and interference. Pyysalo recently visited North Macedonia, where he held several meetings with representatives of the Macedonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, civil society and the media.
He claims that the new government in Skopje is very serious about its intention to deal with hybrid threats and implement a whole-of-society approach. “I think it has definitely evolved a lot. Proof of this is that during this year’s European elections, Russia disseminated up to 40 million reactions to different types of narratives in the media space, which really gives a good picture of the scale of the challenge, and of course many of them. created by artificial intelligence,” he said.
Pyysalo said that about two years ago, dozens of schools in North Macedonia, especially in the capital, received fake bomb threats by email. “This went on for about six months, there were hundreds of fake threats and schools had to be evacuated very often, parents were scared, the whole society was on alert about it.” And the media used this as an opportunity to criticize the government and diminish trust in state institutions. In addition, at almost the same time, in February 2023, the Macedonian Health Insurance Fund was hacked by a ransomware attack, which compromised the data of all citizens, essentially their health data.
Would you say that these two examples are part of the hybrid threats that you are working to prevent?” he asked. He also talked about hybrid threats and showed how they are created by foreign actors. “What I think really makes it a hybrid threat is that it appears to be a strategic attack by a foreign actor targeting societal vulnerabilities, and those are some of the key characteristics of hybrid threats in our view.”
It also showed how devastating some of these hybrid threats can be to a society, in this case by disrupting education, frightening the population, dividing public opinion and also undermining trust in government. “It’s a really important factor in countering some of these threats, and it’s probably no coincidence that these events took place immediately after the closure of North Macedonia’s airspace to the Russian foreign minister and the delivery of military aid to Ukraine.” These events can lead to such hybrid threats, and we say that undermining support for Ukraine does indeed appear to be one of Russia’s immediate goals in using hybrid threats. These are exactly the types of threats that we support our participating states in countering. And although North Macedonia was not a participating state in CoE Hybrid at that time, I understand that NATO has offered its support in this case.” He said that NATO’s assistance in this case was also a really important element in countering hybrid threats. “International cooperation, cooperation between allies is crucial when we face hybrid threats. This is a great symbol of NATO’s unity in your support.”
He said one of the elements of hybrid threats is usually the targeting of vulnerabilities in society. “In the case of North Macedonia and the wider Western Balkans region, these inter-ethnic tensions are certainly one of the main weaknesses that can be abused by foreign actors.” He said that according to their analysis, Russia actually wants to maintain its sphere of influence in the Western Balkans region, and of course EU integration would undermine such an overarching goal of Russia. “This is one of the reasons why we believe that we should do our best to raise awareness of hybrid threats and their objectives among the general public as well, so that people are aware of the threat and are responsible for responding to some of this misinformation.” /The Geopost/
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