Russia is interfering directly and indirectly in the upcoming elections in Georgia through political parties and disinformation

On October 26, Georgians will face an important decision in the parliamentary elections, which could have existential consequences for the future of the country. Voters will choose between a pro-Western opposition and the anti-Western, pro-Kremlin ruling party “Georgian Dream”.

It is a decision that could determine Georgia’s future. Either Georgia consolidates itself in Russia’s sphere of influence – where it already is – or escapes it and turns to a Western path. Two main factors speak against a return to the Western path: Russia influences Georgian politics through its support of the Georgian Dream and interferes more directly in upcoming elections.

Russia’s meddling in Georgia is not new; it is protracted and multi-layered, involving hybrid operations, a direct military intervention in August 2008 and the ongoing occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. But for many years, Moscow relied on openly pro-Russian political actors in Georgia to undermine the country’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Since Russia’s open invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, however, a deeper, more insidious alignment has come to light: The Georgian Dream has increasingly emerged as a proxy for the Kremlin, hindering Georgia’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions.

However, according to polls, the majority of Georgians want their country to be integrated into the European Union and NATO.

The Georgian Dream party has adapted to this climate and presented itself as a pro-Western party and its values, a pro-democracy party, but in practice the opposite has happened.

Since 2012, Georgian Dream’s election campaigns have been based on the promise of bringing Georgia closer to the EU. Even today, despite unprecedented attacks on the West, Georgian Dream’s election banners display EU flags and promise EU integration, adopting a façade to maintain public support. In practice, however, the party has distanced itself from a pro-EU agenda.

Another detail to consider is the portrayal of Viktor Orbán’s Hungary in the Georgian Dream as a model for Georgia’s European future. Orbán is an increasingly authoritarian leader who is systematically undermining democracy in the country while calling into question democratic values across the EU. Georgia’s ruling party celebrated him as the face of Europe that Georgia should aspire to be, portraying Orbán’s fight for “traditional, Christian, conservative, family values” as an important battle against the EU’s “LGBTQ+ propaganda”.

Under the false promise of moving closer to the EU, Georgia has gone from a “beacon of democracy” to a slide towards authoritarianism over the past decade. The country now suffers from a tarnished judiciary and institutions, with laws that increasingly target the media and civil society, and widespread human rights violations. As Western countries began implementing measures to isolate Russia in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Georgian Dream strengthened their ties with Russia. The Georgian Dream Party and several current and former government officials were sanctioned by the West for undermining democracy and acting as agents of Russian intelligence “to influence Georgian society and politics for the benefit of Russia”.

In this context, unlike in Moldova, where Russia has launched a massive covert influence campaign to influence elections, in Georgia the Kremlin relies heavily on the “Georgian Dream” government to undermine the country’s pro-Western aspirations. The Georgian Dream has effectively taken over most of Russia’s work and kept the country from Euro-Atlantic integration. A central theme in Georgian Dream’s campaign this year has been accusing the West of causing trouble in Georgia and the region as a whole, while simultaneously portraying Russia as the guarantor of peace – a narrative that has also been strongly pushed by the Kremlin.

The rhetoric of blaming the West intensified in early 2024, when Georgian Dream passed a Russian-style law on foreign agents, which the EU condemned, stating that it did not meet its values and standards.

The law was passed to target Western-funded non-governmental and media organizations and brand them as foreign agents. This movement suppresses civil society and lays the foundation for a stronger anti-Western narrative in the country.

The anti-Western narrative established by the Georgian Dream comprises three main narratives aimed at manipulating and influencing voters:

Narrative 1: The West drags Georgia into war, but the Georgian dream fights back to keep the peace.

Narrative 2: The United States organizes protests on election day to overthrow the Georgian Dream.

Narrative 3: The Georgian Dream could strike a deal with Russia to take back the Georgian territories occupied by Russia.

However, Russia is not relying solely on Georgian Dream to get its message across to the country. It has also made various direct attempts to interfere in upcoming elections. For example, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has released several statements accusing the United States of orchestrating a coup to overthrow the Georgian Dream. In recent months, at least four SVR statements have alleged that the United States is orchestrating a “Hollywood-style” plot to foment unrest and oust the ruling party from power through a “Maidani in Tbilisi,” a reference to the events that happened in Ukraine. The SVR also added that Russia wanted to thwart attempts at a “color revolution” in Georgia by disclosing available information on the subject.

In August, Meta shut down a Russia-based network targeting Georgia that was actively posting about protests against the Russian-style foreign agents law. This network criticized the protesters who expressed their support for the Georgian Dream. The action, which focused on fictitious news websites, also extended to various platforms. Russian actors attempted to blur the line between authentic political discourse and manipulated narratives, distorting public perception and making it difficult for Georgians to distinguish between genuine public sentiments and narratives introduced into the online discourse by foreign actors.

Russian intelligence has also operated assets on Georgian Telegram, including a channel dedicated to spreading the narrative of an imminent Western-orchestrated “coup” during the elections. This channel is operated by NewsFront, a Russian disinformation platform linked to Russian intelligence services and operating in multiple languages./The Geopost/