Putin is opening up a new front against the West

The Balkans are set to explode unless urgent action is taken by Nato to quell Russian and Serbian aggression in Kosovo

In the face of mounting tensions, Vladimir Putin’s overarching strategic objective is now clear: to dismantle Nato and expose the alliance’s vulnerabilities. With Russia experiencing setbacks in Ukraine, the immediate threat to Nato members like Poland and the Baltic States may be somewhat mitigated. However, it is in the Balkans where Nato’s weakest flank lies, presenting an opportune target for Russia’s ambitions.

This week, in one of the worst confrontations since Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, dozens of heavily armed ethnic Serbs attacked police in northern Kosovo and barricaded themselves in an Orthodox church; an incident leaving one police officer and three of the attackers dead. Kosovo’s leaders, understandably, labelled it a terrorist attack. The Serbian President, Aleksandar Vučić, denied any involvement, complaining to Russia’s Ambassador to Serbia that Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, was carrying out “brutal ethnic cleansing” with support of the West.

This escalation is a dream come true for Moscow. Serbia and Russia have been preparing the Serbs for escalations in Kosovo for months, inflaming tensions in the Balkans to distract the West from its war in Ukraine. They have flooded the information space with propaganda repeating the old claim that Kosovo belongs to Serbia – one propaganda item argued that the UK is preparing a war there. As any student of Balkan history knows, such rhetoric has ignited ethnic violence in the region before.

Russia was quick to capitalise on the incident: a Russian spokesperson declared “additional Western pressure” was bringing “the entire Balkan region to a dangerous brink.” Putin knows he does not need to send military forces to the Balkans – he can use hybrid warfare to destabilise the region and reestablish Russia as the only reliable conflict negotiator there. This plan accomplishes three goals: distract the West from Ukraine, strengthen Moscow’s regional standing, and give Putin leverage over Western powers if they want to keep conflict in the region from escalating.

Serbia also benefits. Vučić has been escalating and then de-escalating in Kosovo by positioning himself as the pillar of stability and using it as a bargaining chip with the West. Vučić’s ultimate goal is to retain power and the Kosovo crisis helps him divert attention from his own domestic political issues and to boost support for the upcoming elections.

On Friday the White House took the unprecedented step of warning publicly of a “large Serbian military deployment along the border with Kosovo.” As dangerous as this is, Vučić knows he does not need to send in the army. Instead, he can use Putin’s playbook and send “little green men” soldiers without insignia to undermine Kosovo and create plausible deniability. Perhaps that is precisely what has already happened.

Nato has announced it is beefing up its troop presence in Kosovo – with the UK Ministry of Defense transferring command of an army battalion to Nato to provide assistance – but it must do more, and quickly, to quell the violence and warn off Russia and Serbia. More urgently, it needs to step up its information operations at home and abroad. Another Kosovo crisis could easily spill over into North Macedonia, a Nato member state, and would have major implications for European defence at a time when the US is distracted by its upcoming election. This is a dangerous moment, yet few are talking about it.

Three decades after the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia, ethnic tensions in the Balkans have never gone away. Despite Nato’s overall military superiority, it has a weak hand in the Balkans, and Russia continues to outmanoeuvre it there. It is time that Nato strengthened its presence in the region and put Russia on the defensive./Telegraph/