Janusz Bugajski Exclusive for The Geopost – Moscow’s Strategy Of Global Destabilization

Janusz Bugajski, 9 December 2023

Russia’s regime is engaged in a global strategy reminiscent of Soviet times. Its goal is to divide, weaken, and defeat the Western alliance. But this time Moscow is not promoting Communist
takeovers, as it did in Cuba, Vietnam, Angola, or Afghanistan, but in facilitating conflicts in several regions, including the Middle East, South America, and the Western Balkans.

Russia’s accelerated push to fuel regional conflicts indicates its fear of losing the war in Ukraine. Moscow is trying to hide its war losses where US officials estimate that nearly half of
Russia’s conventional forces have been killed or incapacitated and vast quantities of military equipment destroyed. Moscow is mobilizing more conscripts but they are poorly trained and the
losses are beginning to have an impact on public opposition to the war inside Russia. A Ukrainian breakthrough with the necessary NATO long-range weapons in any of the occupied
regions would have a devastating effect on Russian morale and capabilities.

By stoking conflicts elsewhere, Moscow wants to reduce Western military support for Kyiv, distract Washington policy makers with new crises, and help strengthen anti-Western
governments. The latest conflict is being fueled between Venezuela and Guyana, as the socialist government of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas is one of Putin’s few allies. Maduro is trying
to disguise the failures of his regime and the impoverishment of the Venezuelan people by laying claims to the resource rich Essequibo region of Guyana. A military incursion will likely
draw in US forces as Washington has defense agreements with Guyana.

The Hamas attack on Israel and the ongoing war in Gaza is clearly beneficial to Moscow. It diverts US attention from assisting Ukraine, raises regional tensions throughout the Middle East,
and boosts the role of Iran – Moscow’s main partner in the region. The US is also subject to international condemnation for supporting Israel’s retaliation against Gaza to eliminate the
terrorist threat, while Russia can pose as the defender of Arab and Muslim nations.

Moscow is also trying to engineer armed conflict in the Western Balkans. It has repeatedly attempted to push Serbia into a military confrontation in Kosova and seems dissatisfied with
Vučić for his evident fear of NATO. Kremlin patience with Dodik in the Bosnia’s Serbian may also be expiring. Despite all his threats, Dodik has failed to declare the RS as an independent
state or moved toward unification with Serbia. Putin’s Serbian proxies were supposed to emulate the Crimean and Donbas precedent of annexation but have failed to deliver. As a
result, Moscow may take more direct measures or work through alternative radical proxies to spark another Balkan war.

There are several other brewing disputes over borders, minorities, and resources that Moscow can exploit, whether in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, or in numerous parts of Africa where
France and Britain still have close post-colonial connections. Although much has been said about a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Beijing is not beholden to Moscow and primarily views
Russia as a useful junior partner. The likelihood of an invasion of Taiwan depends on how Chinese officials view the outcome of the war in Ukraine and whether they conclude that the US
is too weak, indecisive, and thinly stretched to intervene military on behalf of Taiwan.

Russia may also try to stir conflict on the Korean peninsula. A North Korean invasion of South Korea would be welcomed in the Kremlin as it would open up another major war front for the
US. Nonetheless, the supreme leader in Pyongyang is unlikely to commit regime suicide when faced with an American force already present in South Korea and sizeable reinforcements that
could wipe out much of North Korea’s army. Nonetheless, rising tensions even without outright
war serve Kremlin interests.

It is time for Washington to respond to Moscow’s global strategy, not only by making sure that Ukraine wins the war by expelling all Russian occupiers but also by demonstrating that Russia’s
own borders are not secure and its territorial possessions are not permanent. Instead of simply containing fires that Moscow helps ignite around the world, a much more effective policy would
be to make sure that the arsonist is preoccupied with the prospect of his own house burning down.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is titled Pivotal Poland:
Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.