Montenegro’s historic challenge

Exclusively for The Geopost: Janusz Bugajski

The results of Montenegro’s presidential elections and the upcoming June parliamentary ballot will determine in which direction the country is heading. After two decades of stunning progress in regaining its independence, joining NATO, and qualifying for candidate status to the European Union, Montenegro now stands at a strategic crossroads. It is both at the forefront of pro-Westernism in the Western Balkans and simultaneously faces serious threats to its identity, statehood, and independence.

The threat to Montenegro comes primarily from two interrelated sources – from pan-Serbian nationalism generated by the government in Belgrade and from Russian state imperialism designed to subvert the Balkans and create new security problems for the West. Both Belgrade and Moscow seem convinced that President-elect Jakov Milatović is an inexperienced political player who can be maneuvered into a closer Serbian orbit and accelerate Russian regional penetration.

In his post-election interviews, Milatović has been careful in his wording and very general regarding his stance on important regional and global questions. Whether this indicates weakness and indecision or simple election calculations before the June parliamentary vote remains unclear. He has not issued any anti-Western comments or avidly pro-Serbian or pro-Russian positions. Indeed, he voices his commitment to EU membership and remaining within the NATO alliance.

Nonetheless, the President of a NATO country needs to be more affirmative and positive about the importance of membership for national independence and regional stability and as a source of defense against Kremlin subversion. Milatović will need to take a clear stance against Moscow’s disinformation offensives that undermine Montenegro’s sovereignty and European commitments.

Regarding the world’s most important conflict, Milatovic’s condemnation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is necessary but insufficient without clearly supporting Ukraine’s military victory and the liberation of occupied territories. Simply stopping the war would consolidate Russia’s territorial gains, replenish its capabilities, and set up conditions for future wars of conquest. The new Montenegrin President has time to learn about NATO’s stance toward Russia and needs to establish good relations with the leaders of all the front-line states along the Alliance’s eastern flank.

In the aftermath of the elections, Podgorica’s relations with Belgrade need to be carefully monitored, especially as the pro-Serbian bloc supported Milatović’s candidacy and may expect some major policy shifts in their favor. In post-election interviews, Milatović stressed the importance of Montenegro’s “historic relationship” with Serbia and that this should be elevated to the “highest possible level.”

Whether this simply signals his commitment to good-neighborly relations or a veiled program of cultural and religious Serbianization and the subordination of Montenegro’s institutions to Belgrade’s influence will be closely watched both at home and abroad.

Milatović has been mostly evasive when commenting on Kosova. It remains unclear what he understands by “respecting all international obligations” regarding the future of the state. Does this mean he accepts the final status of Kosova and confirms its permanent independence or does he support President Aleksandar Vučić’s project of restricting Kosova’s sovereignty and even regaining its territory for Serbia? It is vital for the new Montenegrin head of state to visit all regional capitals, including Prishtina, and express support for cooperative and productive bilateral relations with each neighbor.

Although presidential powers in Montenegro are constitutionally limited, Milatović will certainly have an important voice domestically and on the world stage. His moves will be especially closely watched in the Western Balkans to detect any major shifts from the steady pro-Western policies pursued by the outgoing President Milo Djukanović. His successes or failures over the coming weeks can have a direct impact on the result of the parliamentary elections in June.

In his public pronouncements, Milatović will need to specify the major interests of the Montenegrin people and state, something that the previous President was abundantly clear about. He will also need to be balanced and objective in criticizing any failures of previous governments and signal that corruption by any politician or party will be investigated, including those currently in office.

Above all, he will need to build broad political consensus to push through vital reforms for Montenegro to regain its position as the primary qualifier in the region for EU membership. As President, Milatović has an opportunity to make an important contribution to the country’s development and should ultimately only be judged by his results. /The Geopost/

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Janusz Bugajski – is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC, his new book is ‘Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture‘