Macedonian intelligence: State targeted by Russian and Chinese hybrid attacks

“The Western Balkans and North Macedonia are the target of sophisticated hybrid attacks led by Russia, China and Iran, which are trying to realize strategies and interests that often complement and supplement each other, but have certain peculiarities,” says Erolld Musliu. Director of Intelligence in North Macedonia for Radio Free Europe.

According to him, propaganda narratives were recently recorded as part of the campaign for the double presidential and parliamentary elections in North Macedonia.

“The intelligence service has observed a hybrid strategy and the selective use of narratives that evoke emotional reactions, exploit sensitive issues in the region and gain momentum, especially during election cycles,” Musliu says in written answers to Radio Free Europe.

Propaganda focuses on the obstacle of European integration

In his opinion, North Macedonia is in the process of European integration, which is linked to the constitutional changes that are being obstructed by propaganda and hybrid warfare.

“The entire process of negotiations with Bulgaria and the adoption of the framework for talks, which includes constitutional amendments, is being carried out with misinformation in order to manipulate opinion, create confusion and interethnic divisions,” says the head of Macedonian intelligence.

According to Musliu, the disinformation propaganda aims to reinforce Euroscepticism by offering the formal trade group BRICS and the Eurasian Union as an alternative, while it is mainly carried out via social networks and the YouTube and TikTok platforms.

Musliu: China wants to cooperate with groups against the EU and NATO

However, Musliu does not answer specifically whether the secret service he heads has information about Chinese influence or perhaps about the financing of political parties in North Macedonia with funds from Russia and other countries such as China and Iran.

He says that China, under the leadership of the Communist Party, is prioritizing cooperation with certain people in North Macedonia who are against the country’s membership in NATO and the EU.

“Although such parties are marginal in many countries, it is in China’s interest to spread narratives in the election campaign that are against the Western strategic alliance and in favor of a multipolar world and in cooperation with China,” Musliu says.

The left focuses on North Macedonia’s orientation towards China

The Macedonian Left Party has its program translated into Albanian, Serbian, Turkish, Bosnian, Russian and Chinese in addition to the Macedonian language.

Although the candidate proposed by this party, Biljana Vankovska, did not make it into the run-off, she achieved around 41,000 votes or 4.56% in the first round of the presidential elections on April 24.

During the presidential election campaign, when presenting the party’s positions, Vankovska emphasized that North Macedonia should initiate the procedure to withdraw from NATO.

The Left Party’s parliamentary election program states that the party advocates the abolition of visas with China and the establishment of bilateral relations at the level of strategic partnership within the framework of the 17+1 initiative and support for Beijing’s multi-billion infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Among the other political parties competing for the presidential or parliamentary elections, China is not seen as an alternative anywhere.

Kristinovska: Certain parties promote the Chinese vision

Ana Kristinovska, head of the non-governmental organization Estima, which focuses on the analysis of China’s policies, including its attitude towards North Macedonia, says that there was no direct influence from China in the election campaign in support of a particular candidate or party Chinese orientation.

“We have the left-wing party and the candidate for president of the country propagating China’s positions and the Chinese vision with narratives about the formal BRICS trade group,” says Kristinovska.

She emphasizes that in the analyses she has carried out, she has noticed that certain media publish information in which China is presented with a positive connotation, i.e. the beauties of this country are presented, often with an emphasis on its economic power.

In this regard, the director of the intelligence service, Erolld Musliu, told REL that certain media in the country had become the “core of hybrid actions” by states that are rivals of the European Union and NATO.

“Concrete activities to influence the editorial policy of certain media and portals have been identified. Commissioned and sponsored texts are intended to create a reputation for China as a state without flaws,” says Musliu.

The Chinese embassy is active on the social network Facebook

The Chinese embassy in North Macedonia is quite active on the social network Facebook. The fan page shares posts from Chinese media that praise China’s successes in various areas – energy, infrastructure, business and sport.

However, it often happens that the social network Facebook writes under such posts that they come from “state-controlled Chinese media”.

The director of the intelligence service believes that the Chinese strategy works in the long term, is characterized by patience and that its influence in the region and in North Macedonia is becoming increasingly visible and pronounced.

At the same time, various forms of hybrid action are emphasized, targeting the political, academic, educational-cultural, media and non-governmental sectors.

Some time ago, the current president Stevo Pendarovski said in a statement for Radio Free Europe that Chinese influence in North Macedonia “undoubtedly exists” and that it comes through economic flows.

Pendarovski: Chinese influence comes through loans

However, Pendarovski distinguishes between the ways in which China and Russia are present in North Macedonia.

“Russian influence never comes through the economy.” We have practically no Russian investment in North Macedonia. We’ve never had that before. China, however, has a completely different approach. Chinese influence comes from investments and the favorable loans it grants,” explained Pendarovski.

Compared to other Western Balkan countries, there is relatively little Chinese investment in North Macedonia.

Two Chinese infrastructure projects have been registered in North Macedonia, namely the construction of the Kicevo – Ohrid highway in the western part of the country and Miladinovci – Štip in the eastern part.

The contractor for the construction works is the Chinese company Sinohydro, which, however, has been accompanied by lawsuits and suspicions of various abuses in the implementation of the works that started in 2015./REL/