Janusz Bugajski for The Geopost: Ukraine needs to win the information war with Russia

Janusz Bugajski

On the eve of potential peace talks pushed by the Trump administration, the information war between Russia and Ukraine is escalating. The longer that Russia fails to gain any significant terrain in eastern Ukraine and is unable to retake all of its Kursk oblast, the more Moscow relies on disinformation and political influence operations in the West. It needs to create an illusion of Russian success and Ukrainian failure in order to convince Western leaders that Russia is invincible and that any peace deal must accede to Moscow’s demands.

To counter this defeatist narrative, Ukraine needs strong and persuasive messages in both word and deed. Ukraine’s battlefield operations must consolidate perceptions that Russia’s defeat is desirable, evidential, and inevitable. Such an information offensive impacts on morale, belief, commitment, leadership, and outcome, and it influences US and other policy decisions. Kyiv must be more effective in three key narratives by demonstrating that the Russian army is beatable, that the Russian state is brittle, and that there are credible alternatives to an imperial Russia.

Ukraine needs to consistently highlight its successful decimation of Russia’s military and war economy and that such actions shorten the war. It has largely incapacitated Russia’s Black Sea fleet and intensified attacks on Russia’s domestic infrastructure, especially energy targets that fuel the war. Ukrainian drone strikes have proved effective in long-distance bombing operations, hitting fuel terminals, oil refineries, pipelines, and ports. As a result, Moscow’s gasoline exports are dropping sharply and the damage is exacerbated by tighter international sanctions. Other successful targets include Russia’s military plants, ammunition factories, and chemical plants.

Ukrainian drone strikes have several positive informational repercussions. They demonstrate that Russia is becoming more vulnerable, as much of its air defense system has been destroyed. They showcase the growing sophistication of Ukraine’s drone warfare, which can precisely hit targets several hundred kilometers into Russia. Moreover, bombing campaigns undermine Russia’s energy industry and export earnings and reduce the supply of equipment and logistics for Russia’s occupation forces in Ukraine.

Paradoxically, the Kremlin remains largely silent about Ukraine’s attacks or blames them on accidents. It fears revealing its own weaknesses and acknowledging Ukraine’s successes, as this deflates the propaganda swallowed by much of the Western media that Russia is invincible. However, not admitting to declining war capacities because of attacks on its territory also contradicts Moscow’s propaganda narrative of a dangerous escalation that will precipitate World War III – a myth designed to petrify Western leaders.

Kyiv also needs to consistently demonstrate that the Russian state is brittle, whether reporting on financial problems, economic decline, social discontent, or protest actions. Russia faces deep structural difficulties with over-reliance on energy exports and the pursuit of a war economy at the cost of the civilian sector. Russia is depleting its financial reserves accumulated during periods of high energy prices and is unable to borrow on international financial markets. In a country where more than half of the population lives directly off state subsidies, the cost of living is rising, with rampant inflation, declining social services, and shortages of an increasing range of products.

Ukrainian officials, analysts, and activists must also demonstrate that there are credible alternatives to an imperial Russia. Despite the Kremlin narrative to frighten the West, Moscow’s defeat does not mean chaos and international instability. Ukraine’s army incorporates anti-regime Russian, Chechen, and a newly formed “Nomad” contingent that includes recruits from Kalmykia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Sakha, and other non-Russian nationalities. These are important demonstrations of anti-Muscovite internationalism. Ukraine has also positioned itself at the forefront of a developing movement to weaken Russia from within by supporting a host of national and regional groups seeking sovereignty and independence from Moscow.

Kyiv must also be astute in dealing with the Trump administration – by asserting that it wants a ceasefire to help end the war, by welcoming Washington’s mediation, and by pointing out that Russia is constantly breaking agreements and escalating hostilities. Above all, Trump must be convinced that if he accedes to Russia’s territorial demands in Ukraine, he will appear weak and incompetent and encourage other expansionist powers such as China. And if Trump is weak with Russia, this is much more likely to pull America into a future war.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture

/The Geopost