Janusz Bugajski for The Geopost: Reorganizing the Arctic

Janusz Bugajski, 11 January 2025

President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland and Canada, whether peacefully or through military or economic pressure, highlights the importance of the Arctic for global security. It also reveals growing fears in the West over Russian and Chinese aspirations to dominate major northern trade routes and extensive Arctic resources.

Trump’s focus on Greenland is especially important, as this largest island in the world sits astride strategic sea lanes between the North Atlantic and the Arctic, as well as important air routes between America and Europe. It contains substantial oil and gas deposits, as well important minerals such as gold, zinc, lead, and iron ore, and rare earth elements, including graphite, platinum, and titanium that are an essential part of many high-tech devices and military defense systems. All these resources are attractive for both Russia and China and a looming focus of competition with the West.

US aspirations to acquire Greenland from Denmark is not a new proposition. Washington first announced such plans in the 1860s when it bought Alaska from the Russian empire. A similar proposal was made and rejected in the wake of World War Two. Greenland itself became a self-governing territory in 2008 with a high degree of autonomy, but support for full independence from Denmark remains uncertain. The territory has the right to independence through a public referendum but many residents are fearful of a fall in living standards if Copenhagen no longer provides an annual financial subsidy amounting to half of Greenland’s public budget.

The best American approach toward Greenland is not to try and purchase the island, as the indigenous inhabitants will feel they are simply swapping one colonial overlord for another. An independent Greenland with growing prosperity through the extraction and trade of its own resources is a much more practical and positive solution. The US can strengthen its presence on the island through major economic investments and a stronger military contingent. Greenland already has a US airbase and radar station needed to detect missile threats across the Arctic and to monitor space. Once it is admitted into NATO as a new member, Greenland’s security would be ensured and it can continue to maintain close relations with Europe. Creating divisions between North America and Europe through disputes over Greenland simply serves Russian and Chinese expansionist interests.

Despite Trump’s assertions, Canada will not become the 51st state of the United States, regardless of who replaces Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister. Indeed, Trump’s bluster may simply serve to unite Canadians against unwanted foreign interference. The best solution for Canda and for the US is for Ottawa to significantly boost its military spending, which currently amounts to a meager 1.4% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This would wean the country away from dependence on the American military in any time of crisis. It would also send a strong signal to other NATO laggards to invest much more intensively in their militaries. Above all, Canada needs a substantially stronger presence in its vast Arctic regions to monitor and deter any unwanted Russian or Chinese penetration.

In pursuit of a more effective Arctic strategy, the US also needs to reinforce its military posture in Alaska and all its territorial waters close to Russia or along the Arctic Ocean. More regular air and naval exercises can be held in the North Pacific to demonstrate American strength and to further stretch Russia’s dwindling financial and military resources. Washington and its north Atlantic and north Pacific allies can also undermine the Russian threat from within by preparing for the emergence of new states out of Moscow’s northern Eurasian empire.

The independence of Greenland and its economic growth through US and other international investments will also send a strong message for self-determination and independence to Russia’s colonial Arctic possessions. These include resource rich Sakha, Nenetsia, Komi, and Siberia that are now exploited by Moscow to boost its war economy but with little benefit for local residents. Newly emerging states that sit astride the Northern Sea route can pursue trans-Arctic partnerships with Alaska, Canada, Canada’s self-governing territory of Nunavut, Greenland, Denmark, Norway, and Finland. By underscoring the importance of Greenland, Trump has brought the Arctic region to the forefront of US policy, but he must now follow through with concrete results.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture