Is a political settlement between Russia and Ukraine on the cards? I am skeptical

Russia’s war against Ukraine has passed the two-and-a-half-year mark, intensifying international calls for a political settlement. But Kyiv and Moscow’s minimal conditions for peace remain irreconcilable. Volodymyr Zelenskiy wants to regain all territories seized by Russia not just since 24 February 2022, but in 2014 as well. Vladimir Putin wants four Ukrainian provinces – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – plus a Ukraine that is barred from Nato membership and constrained by caps on troop numbers and armaments, which Moscow demanded in the negotiations held with Kyiv in April 2022.

Both leaders have stated publicly that they are open to negotiations, but neither has abandoned his longstanding goals or given up on victory. As a result, Russia’s army grinds forward in Donetsk (the main theatre of war), albeit at a heavy cost in troops and equipment, and threatens key towns. And last month, Ukrainian troops stunned Moscow by pushing into Kursk province undetected, eventually occupying some 500 square miles, more than the Russian army has in Donetsk all year.

Meanwhile, the US and Britain are mulling over Ukraine’s pleas for permission to use their Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles to strike deep into Russia. (Ukraine already uses both against Russian targets within its own territory.) Putin warned that British and US consent would amount to a decision to wage war against Russia and hinted at perilous consequences. He was outdone, in specificity and drama, by a prominent Russian military expert who advocated lobbing a tactical nuclear warhead into a European Nato country, adding that the US wouldn’t dare retaliate.

Could a combination of war fatigue and the fear of escalation pave the way for negotiations that end the war? I am sceptical.

Ukrainians have certainly endured enormous suffering. Parts of their homeland have been ravaged, and 10 million of them have sought refuge abroad or in safer parts of Ukraine. Ukraine’s army remains outmanned and outgunned – the first half of this year was a low point – and now struggles to train new troops rapidly and adequately enough to counter a relentless Russian war machine.

The Kursk campaign’s success remains uncertain, as does London and Washington’s decision on Storm Shadow and Atacms. But no matter the outcomes, Zelenskiy won’t rush to the bargaining table. Neither will Putin. He remains convinced that Russia will prevail but also understands that his political fate could be sealed if it doesn’t.

The upshot is that despite the increasing appeals for negotiations and the ever-present danger of escalation, the logic of the two adversaries ensures that the war will drag on for months, perhaps longer. That could change, however, should Donald Trump return to the White House – a prospect Kyiv dreads and Moscow relishes.

The Kursk campaign’s success remains uncertain, as does London and Washington’s decision on Storm Shadow and Atacms. But no matter the outcomes, Zelenskiy won’t rush to the bargaining table. Neither will Putin. He remains convinced that Russia will prevail but also understands that his political fate could be sealed if it doesn’t.

The upshot is that despite the increasing appeals for negotiations and the ever-present danger of escalation, the logic of the two adversaries ensures that the war will drag on for months, perhaps longer. That could change, however, should Donald Trump return to the White House – a prospect Kyiv dreads and Moscow relishes./The Guardian/