History of an ongoing unprovoked aggression

On February 24, 2022, the world marked the beginning of an aggression that would cost thousands of lives and raze entire cities to the ground. We all witnessed Russia invading its neighbor Ukraine, a country that is part of Europe and the second largest in area on our continent. With a population of almost 40 million, Ukraine seemed an easy target for Russia, with a population of over 140 million, which was also one of the largest military powers in the world. This aggression raised concerns about the security of Europe and the danger posed by the Kremlin’s influence and dependence on Russian energy. Warnings about the consequences of Russian influence before the aggression began sounded more like conspiracy theories than a real threat. But after February 24, the world changed completely. The rift between the democratic West and the autocratic-dictatorial East deepened, communication channels were reduced, preparations for war are at the highest level and the Third World War is closer than ever. This division has nothing to do with geography, but with the value system that a country represents. Japan, for example, may be the easternmost country geographically, but in terms of values it belongs to the West.

HISTORIC CROSSROAD

Ukraine, which until December 1991 was part of the Soviet Union, a federation dominated by Russia, found itself at this dangerous crossroads between East and West. The collapse of this and other communist-style federations (Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia) led to Ukraine’s independence. Three years after the Ukrainian people declared themselves a sovereign and democratic state, in December 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Guarantees with the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia, obliging this new state to give up all nuclear weapons inherited from the Soviet Union and thus become a non-nuclear power. Previously, Ukraine was the third largest country in the world with a nuclear arsenal. The signatories of this memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and its right to self-determination.

The first clash between pro-Western and pro-Russian forces occurred in 2004, when the Western-oriented Viktor Yushchenko and the Russian-backed Viktor Yanukovych contested the presidential elections. Although he was mysteriously poisoned before the election, Yushchenko recovered and won the election. To defend this pro-Western course, Ukrainians carried out the so-called “Orange Revolution”, which was the color of Yushchenko’s election campaign. Four years later, at the NATO summit, Ukraine was not offered the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as the first step on the road to membership of the alliance. This was due to the opposition of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had said at a meeting with his then-counterpart George W. Bush that “Ukraine is not a real nation”, implying that the inhabitants of this country have ethnic Russian roots. In 2010, Yanukovych won the presidential elections in Ukraine, the key Russian figure who aligned the country with Moscow in 2013. This alignment of the state triggered mass protests in Ukraine, while the abandonment of the EU integration process and the arrest of opposition figure Yulia Tymoshenko were signals for the establishment of a new Soviet-style dictatorship. The protests spread throughout the country and were centered on Maidan Square in Kiev. Around 130 civilians were killed during this revolution, while Yanukovych was forced to leave the country and flee to Russia. A year later, Russia annexed Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula inhabited mainly by ethnic Russians. Next, soldiers without emblems enter and occupy the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This marks the beginning of the aggression against Ukraine, which causes international outrage and is also condemned by the UN.

In the 2019 presidential election, former comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyi ran against Petro Poroshenko, a pro-European politician who had held the post since the fall of Yanukovych. Zelensky, whose party also won the parliamentary elections, came to power with two main promises: ending the war by defeating Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine and eradicating corruption in the Ukrainian government. In early 2021, Zelensky launched a campaign against Ukrainian oligarchs who supported pro-Russian forces who were also friends with Putin. This prompted Putin to increase the presence of the army near the Ukrainian border and at the same time publish an article in which he repeated the thesis of the denial of the Ukrainian people that he had put forward in 2008. Putin sends a list of demands to the West, the most important of which is that Ukraine should never be admitted to NATO. The USA, the EU and the UK did not give in to this request and recognized Ukraine’s right to determine its own geostrategic orientation. This prompted Putin to recognize the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states on 21 February 2022 and then to deploy soldiers under the pretext that they would “keep the peace.” Three days after this decision, Russia launched military aggression against the whole of Ukraine. However, it met with strong resistance from the local army. The destructive force of the war, which took place in 2022, horrified the whole world.

THE WAR STILL WITHOUT AN EPILOGUE

The clash continued with the same force in 2023. The countries of the Western Balkans backed the West, with the exception of Serbia, which continued to maintain relations with Russia. Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro and North Macedonia have already harmonized 100% of the sanctions imposed on Russia with the EU. However, the enforcement of sanctions is not always precise.

EU member states, the US, the UK, Australia and Japan have continued to support Ukraine financially and militarily. Today, the defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty is understood as the defense of the rules-based world order that was established after World War II to restore peace. One of the basic principles of this order is respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, regardless of their size or military capacity. The threat of this order by Russia was seen as an attempt to bring war back to the global level.

Below we present the most important events in the months of 2023:

January 2023: The war is approaching its twelfth month since it began. The US and Germany announced that they would send advanced battle tanks to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian forces. This was the first coordinated attempt by the West to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine. It was a major step for Germany in particular, as the country has cautiously acted as an ally of Ukraine since the start of the war.

February 2023: Biden traveled to Ukraine. He took a train from Poland and spent hours in Kiev, where he went for a walk with Zelensky while the air-raid sirens went off. At the joint briefing, Biden announced additional aid of 500 million US dollars for Ukraine and delivered the optimistic message: “One year later, Kiev is standing. And Ukraine is standing. Democracy is standing.”

April 2023: The Balkans remain the target of Russian propaganda. Moscow’s aim is to justify aggression and increase support. Now the first mercenaries from the region appear in the Wagner unit. Meanwhile, Ukraine is preparing for the largest counter-offensive to liberate the territories in the east of the country.

May 2023: The Battle of Bakhmut, the longest and bloodiest of the war, ended a year after it began. This town was not so important strategically, but very important for the symbolism of Ukraine’s victory. After the retreat of the Russian army, Wagner’s private army took over the battle. This group achieved victory over the destroyed ruins of Bachmut on May 21, having lost at least 10,000 fighters in six months.

June 2023: Outraged by the lack of support in the bloody battle for Bachmut, the Wagner Group begins to march on Moscow in an attempted coup. This development caused panic in Russia, as it represented the greatest challenge to Putin’s power. The group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, published statements criticizing Russia’s military leadership and calling on members of the country’s armed forces to join his cause. After capturing the headquarters of the command for monitoring the war in Ukraine in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the Wagner group halted its march towards Moscow just one day after the shock operation began. Prigozhin issued a statement saying that the group had achieved its goal of attracting the Kremlin’s attention and was returning to the front. Moscow withdrew the arrest warrant and Prigozhin was allowed to seek refuge in neighboring Belarus.

July 2023: The US Department of Defense announces additional aid for the defense of Ukraine. While Ukraine continues to fight on the eastern front, its Western supporters debate the possible end of the war and its consequences. The international response to the Russian invasion remains inadequate. Many suggestions are being made as to how the war could end. Among the proposals are those that would appease Russia at the expense of Ukraine and endanger Europe.

August 2023: Ukrainian special forces conduct a night-time naval operation in Crimea, the first of several brief incursions into Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukrainian commandos stormed an electronic control station that had protected Crimea from drone and missile attacks and raised a Ukrainian flag. US media report that the total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began 18 months ago is close to 500,000, a staggering figure. According to media reports, the number of Russian military casualties is close to 300,000, including up to 120,000 killed and up to 180,000 wounded.

September 2023: Ukrainian forces launch a missile attack that hits 13 Russian submarines and severely damages a ship anchored in the main port of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea. According to the Ukrainian military, 34 high-ranking Russian officers were killed in the attack, including the fleet commander Adm. Viktor Sokolov. Russia has since transferred the majority of its fleet to Russia, giving Ukraine more room for maneuver in the Black Sea.

October 2023: EU heads of state and government reaffirm their condemnation of Russian aggression and emphasize their unwavering solidarity with Ukraine and its people. To date, the EU and its member states have provided Ukraine with over 82 billion euros and will continue to actively support Ukraine for as long as necessary.

November 2023: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhni told The Economist that after months of fighting, there was no progress, so Ukraine and Russia had “reached the level of stalemate”, just like in the First World War. Afterwards, Zelensky rebuked Zaluzhin for the statement he made and criticized him for facilitating the work of the Russian aggressor with this fatalism. Meanwhile, the EU has increased EU military aid for Ukraine by 194 million euros to a total of 255 million euros. The aim is to expand the capacities of Ukraine’s armed forces by providing the services, equipment and materials required for training.

December 2023: The EU Council adopts the twelfth package of sanctions measures against Russia, targeting high-value sectors of the Russian economy and making it more difficult to circumvent EU sanctions. The package includes a ban on the direct or indirect import, purchase or transfer of diamonds, including jewelry, from Russia; strengthening bilateral and multilateral cooperation with third countries to prevent the circumvention of sanctions; stronger export restrictions on dual-use goods and technologies; the implementation of the oil price cap, etc.

THE CASUALTY COUNT CONTINUES

As the two-year anniversary of the start of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine approaches, fighting on Ukraine’s eastern and southern fronts remains intense. A recent US intelligence report revealed that Russia has lost approximately 315,000 people since the invasion of Ukraine began. These are extremely high losses as they account for 87 percent of the estimated 360,000 Russian troops before the aggression began in February 2022. According to the report, Russia has suffered heavy blows to its military arsenal since the start of the invasion, losing around 2,200 of its 3,500 troops, battle tanks and a third of its armored vehicles. According to the report, Russia’s losses are far greater than the number of troops Moscow had last lost since November 2022, when the Russian Ministry of Defense reported 5,937 soldier deaths.

Despite the enormous losses, the war is expected to continue well into 2024, as Russia is not prepared to withdraw from the occupied Ukrainian territories. The USA and the EU will go through an election process next year. In the US, the new president will be elected, while in the EU, the new composition of the European Parliament (EP), an institution that will then shape the European Commission (EC) and other executive bodies of the Union, will be elected. The results of these elections are expected to have a major impact on the epilogue of this war.

/Writes: Xhelal Neziri, editor and associate to The Geopost from North Macedonia