After the new situation on the Ukrainian battlefield and the fact that the conflict is not seen to end, the question arises as to how all this could affect the Balkans and the countries in the region. Analysts warn that instability exists, but there should be no major incidents.
Could the West’s attention most directed towards Ukraine and Russia create a crisis elsewhere, primarily in the region? Aleksandar Popov of the Centre for regionalism says that the events in Kosovo about travel documents are the best evidence of this.
“This was immediately confirmed by / (Gabriel) Escobar and (Miroslav) Lajcak when they visited Pristina and Belgrade, but already a new crisis could occur at the end of October when the deadline for the replacement of the car number plate expires,” Popov said.
Popov also sees the situation in BiH as a latent danger for the region.
“There we have a Russian man Dodik who can contribute, along with the other two leaders of the constituent nations, to the destabilization of BiH, in my opinion, the only encouraging circumstance that has been shown, and I am sure that the West has all the instruments to keep things in the region and in Kosovo, and when it comes to BiH, under control,” says Popov.
Fear and concern for the region exists throughout Europe, according to military-political analyst Vlado Radulovic. According to him, statements by foreign officials testify that the Western Balkans is a point for provoking conflict.
“Taught by what happened in Montenegro in 2016, taught by what happened in North Macedonia before it changed its name and got a new government. I’m afraid it doesn’t look good in the sense that it doesn’t give good signs for the future. On the other hand, I believe that we are a little further away from, when I say I mean Serbia, and that we will manage to keep peace as a region,“ said Vlado Radulovic.
Further or closer, Serbia, its president believes, must fight for its survival in the emerging situation and make sure it is not targeted by the most difficult measures.
“We are all just too small to be very important here, we will need a filigree game to be able to survive in politics and in the economy,” said President Aleksandar Vucic.
Foreign policy journalist Dragan Bisenic told N1 that it is difficult at all to say whether in all these years the international community has managed to find a successful answer to a question about the character of its engagement in the former Yugoslavia./N1/