
The Gagauzia region of Moldova recently held elections for its leader, which were won by Yevgenia Gutsul, a representative of the pro-Russian Shor party. The consequences of this may not reverberate across Europe, but could have a significant impact on the political stability of Moldova, a country bordering Ukraine, whose government is keen to join the EU and is strongly opposed to Vladimir Putin’s regime.
Gagauzia (officially the autonomous territorial unit of Gagauzia) is a region in southern Moldova. The name derives from the Gagauz, a Turkic people believed to be most probably descended from the Seljuk Turks. Although originally Muslim, the Gagauz are today mostly Orthodox Christians, respect the Russian Orthodox Church and have a long tradition of support for pro-Russian parties.
In the elections in mid-May, a new “Bashkan”, i.e. leader of Gagauzia, was chosen, with only pro-Russian candidates running. The winner was Yevgenia Gutsul on behalf of the Shor party, which has been organising protests for months demanding the removal of President Maya Sandu.
“We are a pro-Russian party. We want to continue to be friends with the Russian Federation and friends with other countries. We do not want conflicts”, Gucul told Russian media after the second round of voting was announced.
It indicated that one of its first moves would be to open a Gagauz representative office in Moscow, as well as to start negotiations to lift the ban on exports of Moldovan agricultural products to Russia, which has been in place since 2022, citing “sanitary standards” as the reason.
As Kit Harrington of the Centre for European and Eurasian Studies at Maynooth University in Ireland explained to Euronews Serbia, Gucul is a pro-Russian populist who was relatively unknown in the region, but who nevertheless won the support of the Shor Party.
Incidentally, the leader of the Shor Party is its founder, the businessman Ilan Shor. He lives in Israel and a Moldovan court recently extended his prison sentence to 15 years in absentia in connection with the theft of around one million dollars from Moldovan banks in 2014 and 2015, Reuters reports.
Shor has been sanctioned by the US, Canada and the UK, and was also on the EU sanctions list, along with his party’s deputy chairwoman Marina Tauber.
“Before the elections, Shor made it clear that a vote for Yevgenia was a vote for him. She was elected with Shor’s support and unusual promises, which included rapid economic growth in the region and a rapid increase in pensions,” explains Harrington.
Does Russia have a new “micro ally” in Europe?
Gutsul’s victory has led some observers to worry that the region could be an even more pronounced ally of Moscow, which is particularly dangerous given that Russia is at war with Ukraine and Moldova shares a border with that country.
“It is true that this region can be described as a ‘micro ally of Russia’, but it has always been so. Most local parliamentarians support Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” Harrington told Euronews Serbia.
Official Chisinau has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while President Maya Sandu has previously accused Moscow of trying to destabilise her government and lead to its ouster. Over the last year and a half, the Moldovan authorities have done much to reduce Russian influence, which they consider detrimental to the country’s interests.
“The pro-European government has chosen to side with the West and condemn the invasion of Ukraine, to which the Kremlin has responded by raising gas prices, sponsoring anti-government protests and allegedly conspiring with the controversial Shor party to carry out a coup,” Harrington said in his earlier analysis ahead of the elections for “Carnegie Europe”.
He added that Moldova was granted EU candidate status last June and in response to Russia’s hybrid war, Chisinau banned Russian TV channels and symbols related to the war, some Russian officials were banned from entering the country and diplomats were expelled.
“The rapid deterioration of relations between Chisinau and Moscow has angered the Gagauz minority in Moldova. Even the seemingly pro-European mood in Chisinau usually provokes a negative reaction from the Gagauz. The signing of the EU-Moldova Association Agreement in 2014 prompted the Gagauz to organise an illegal referendum in which a majority of participants rejected EU integration in favour of closer ties with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU),” says Harrington.
However, neither Gucul nor the Gagauzia region as a whole has much chance of changing Moldova’s attitude towards Russia and its invasion.
“It will be more like a thorn in their side. But it (Gucul and Gagauzia) can cause local instability. I would expect the region to organise another referendum against the EU in autumn or winter”, Harrington told Euronews Serbia.
As for Moldova’s European aspirations, he says there will be no major threats, at least for now.
“The election of Gucul in itself will not pose a threat to Moldova’s EU hopes. But it does show that Shor is becoming increasingly popular outside his base, the city of Orhei. If Shor’s popularity continues to grow, this could jeopardise Moldova’s aspirations when it comes to the European Union.”, explains Harrington to Euronews Serbia.
Suspected vote buying
Gutsul won with around 52% of the vote, while her opponent, Grigory Uzun, admitted defeat. However, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean expressed doubts about the validity of these results, saying that “the police and the prosecutor’s office have noticed complaints of irregularities in the voting”.
The day after the second round of the elections, police officers were investigating a case of alleged possible corruption, i.e. vote-buying in Gagauzia, allegedly carried out by people from Yevgenia Gutsul’s team.
According to the National Anti-Corruption Centre, from March to mid-May, Gutsul and her team allegedly used money to solicit voters to vote for them, as well as to bribe various activists for the campaign, RSE’s Moldovan branch reported. .
According to one of the reports, it is suspected that Shore activists received 15,000 lei (around €3,000) each to bribe 30 voters to vote for Gutsul.
On the other hand, its headquarters claim that the Moldovan government has tried to intimidate their supporters not to take part in the anti-government protests organised by the Shor party by “blackmail and threats”.
The chairman of the Gagauz electoral commission said that the body had “received information but no evidence” of allegations of bribery to vote. In the end, the Shor victory was confirmed.
In addition to this investigation, the Constitutional Court of Moldova opened another one on 10 May. It concerns the government’s request to ban the Shor Party’s activities on the grounds that it “violates the rule of law and acts against Moldova’s sovereignty”. Further hearings on this case will resume on 12 June./Euronews.sr/