Croatian services: Escalation of tensions in Kosovo – a constant risk

The Croatian Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA) estimates that relations between Kosovo and Serbia remain unstable and that, under these circumstances, an escalation of tensions in Kosovo poses a constant risk.

In its annual report, the SOA looks not only at the security situation in Croatia, but also at developments in the Western Balkans – a region that it believes continues to face profound political and security challenges closely linked to unresolved inter-state issues.

Although the EU and the US continue to be involved in stabilization efforts, the report underlines that resolving these issues remains difficult.

According to the SOA, this climate of uncertainty also has a direct impact on the region’s European integration process, which is progressing slowly.

Croatia sees continuing threats in the north

In its assessment of Kosovo, the SOA emphasizes the existence of groups that want to destabilize the situation in the north of the country, where the majority of the population is Serbian.

As an example of this, the report cites the armed attack by Serbian formations on the Kosovo police in the village of Banjska on September 24, 2023, in which a police officer was killed.

Pristina accuses Belgrade of the attack, while Serbian officials deny any responsibility.

The report notes that it is still unclear how this paramilitary formation was organized and armed with heavy weapons of military origin.

Milan Radoić, who took responsibility for organizing the attack and was involved in it, is said to have fled to Serbia, where he was interrogated. However, criminal proceedings against him are still ongoing.

The SOA report also mentions the Kosovo authorities’ efforts to eliminate parallel Serbian institutions in the north in order to strengthen the state’s sovereignty and limit Belgrade’s influence in this area.

“Under these circumstances, the escalation of tensions in Kosovo remains a constant risk. Therefore, the military presence of international forces continues to play the role of security guarantor,” says the SOA.

Serbia’s strategic balancing

For Kosovo’s northern neighbor Serbia, the SOA emphasizes the continuation of the policy of balancing between the West, Russia and China.

This strategy also includes promoting the concept of a “Serbian world”, the aim of which is to unite the Serbs in neighboring countries – particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo – under the single political umbrella of official Belgrade.

At the national level, the SOA notes that Serbia has experienced several waves of anti-government protests, mainly organized by students. These call for the democratization of society, the depoliticization of state institutions, the strengthening of media freedom and the fight against corruption.

The report emphasizes that in such a complex situation with increasing social polarization, the media close to government structures reinforce a narrative that identifies external and internal enemies.

According to the report, this creates an atmosphere of national threat and is used to discredit student protests.

In this context, the Republic of Croatia is described as a “permanent anti-Serbian factor”, the SOA emphasizes.

Further challenges

The Croatian agency notes that political instability continues in Bosnia and Herzegovina, caused by disagreements between entities and communities over constitutional provisions and foreign policy.

The main conflict is between the leadership of Republika Srpska and the High Representative for Jurisdiction.

The SOA assumes that the leadership of Republika Srpska openly supports the dissolution of Bosnia-Herzegovina and is seeking political support from Russia – which will continue to lead to serious political and security challenges.

In Montenegro, according to the report, the socio-political divide between the pro-European and Serbian options, which are both pro-Russian and anti-Western, persists.

Serbian radical parties are part of the current ruling coalition. Although the Montenegrin government wants to demonstrate European commitment, the influence of the nationalist and anti-Western policies of the Serbian option could hinder European integration and negatively affect relations with the EU, according to the SOA report.

Mention is also made of the Serbian Orthodox Church, which, in addition to its religious role, also claims to have a strong political influence at national and regional level.

Church leaders promote the concept of the “Serbian world”, which includes Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo in particular, according to the report.

The same also warns that criminal organizations in the Western Balkans, especially Serbian-Montenegrin ones, are very active in smuggling cocaine from South America to Europe.

Russia’s destabilizing role

In one part of the report, the SOA also highlights Russia’s continued and destabilizing influence in the Western Balkans.

According to the report, Moscow uses a number of instruments – especially traditional relations with Serbia – to maintain and expand its influence in the region.

The agency also points to the active presence of Russian intelligence services in Serbia, which, according to the SOA, includes the harboring of agents who have fled Western countries.

The report emphasizes that Russian hybrid media also operate from Serbian territory and mentions RT and Sputnik in particular.

These media “serve to spread pro-Russian and anti-Western narratives in the Western Balkans”, the report states.

“Secure democracy”

For Croatia itself, the SOA rates the country as a “secure and stable democracy in a challenging security environment”.

It emphasizes that rapid global changes, technological developments and the consequences of the war in Ukraine have contributed to the deterioration of security in Europe.

However, according to the SOA, Croatia does not currently face any serious direct threat to its national security or democratic constitutional order./REL/