Bugajski for The Geopost: Will Europe defend itself?

Janusz Bugajski

The second Donald Trump presidency will test Europe’s willingness to defend itself from the growing Russian menace. While Trump has threatened to scale down support for NATO and withdraw the remaining American forces from Germany, several large European states remain glaringly unprepared for a new era of insecurity.

During his first presidency Trump criticized those NATO allies who failed to fulfill defense spending guidelines of 2% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Following Trump’s election, several of his security advisers continue to complain about insufficient European defense spending and military assistance to Ukraine. This is not a “pro-Russia” policy, as some populist politicians in Europe have claimed. Indeed, Trump’s likely appointments in the State Department, National Security Council, and the Pentagon will be more hawkish on Russia than their Biden predecessors. They are well aware of the Russia threat but believe that a bigger share of the defense burden must fall on Europe.

NATO’s combined defense expenditure reached approximately $1.47 trillion in 2024, the highest that members have collectively spent on defense, with the US contributing about 16% to NATO’s annual budget. European NATO is spending more on its defense than in past years. Its defense spending increased by 19% in 2024, following a 9% increase in 2023. Nonetheless, much of that spending is not allocated to the defense industry, to manufacturing new weapons systems, shells, and ammunition, and increasing the size of the armed forces.

NATO guidelines specify that at least 20% of annual defense expenditure should be apportioned for military equipment. Only a few countries meet that target, with Poland in first place where more than 50% of defense spending is earmarked for military modernization. Countries such as Spain, Germany, France, Italy, and Hungary barely meet NATO standards and are unprepared to defend their allies. Not surprisingly, the front line states such as Poland and the three Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia that exceed NATO spending guidelines, have little trust in allies that hide under the US security umbrella. Some security experts will urge Trump to position American troops currently stationed in Germany to countries that are willing to spend and fight for the Alliance.

Lack of investment in Europe’s arms industry underscores that much of the continent has been living in a utopian delusion and has not understood the threat of resurgent Russian imperialism. This will be recorded in history as a glaring failure of academics, think tanks, policy experts, and political leaders in much of Western Europe. Despite two world wars that raged mostly in Europe, leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Spain seem unaware of the dangers that the continent still faces. And in all likelihood, Europe will once again plead for America to come to its rescue if Russia claims victory in Ukraine and rearms for another war.

European NATO and not the EU should develop an effective defense policy. If the EU tries to duplicate NATO, it will weaken both organizations. European NATO involves key allies that are not in the Union but will play a crucial role in its security – particularly the United Kingdom, Turkey, and Norway. Russia’s war against Ukraine has demonstrated the inadequacies of Europe’s defense industry and the poor state of several armies on the continent. Nonetheless, European states can afford to buttress their defense spending and invest in mass producing new weapons. The GDP of the total EU economy in 2024 is estimated at $19.4 trillion – about one-sixth of the global economy. And Europe’s budget is ten times larger than Russia’s. If properly armed, Europe is fully capable of defending its eastern front by significantly boosting its armaments production and the size of its militaries.

In the light of Trump’s election, Poland is now planning to create an alliance in Europe that will better defend the eastern front and more effectively support Ukraine. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has emphasized that Warsaw will intensify cooperation with countries that share Poland’s position on the Russia threat and will not allow Ukraine to weaken or capitulate. This defense alliance will likely include the UK, the Nordic countries, and the Baltics states. Paradoxically, such an initiative will be well received and supported by the Trump administration because it demonstrates that at least a part of Europe is taking responsibility for its own security.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture