Bugajski for The Geopost: The United States can profit from a dissolving Russia

Janusz Bugajski, 8 April 2025

President Donald Trump has claimed that the United States would benefit greatly from acquiring Greenland and Canada. However, a much more significant strategic prize would be to establish American protectorates over the vast Arctic and Pacific territories that will emerge from Russian occupation. The unravelling of Moscow’s empire and the development of close ties with liberated regions would be highly profitable for Washington and bring numerous advantages for trans-regional security across the northern hemisphere.

First, the geostrategic rationale is clearcut. Control of the Northern Sea Route across the Arctic Ocean will become increasingly important for inter-continental trade in the era of global warming. By establishing a protectorate over Chukotka – the easternmost region of Eurasia – the U.S. can control the narrow passage between North America and East Asia and keep open the transit route between the North Pacific, Arctic, and North Atlantic Oceans.

Second, a major U.S. security presence in Northeast Asia will challenge China’s ambitions and limit its regional influence. It would also fortify the development of a North Pacific version of NATO and solidify the defense of American allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Tokyo itself can regain its Northern Territories stolen by Moscow after World War Two and even claim the island of Sakhalin (Karafuto), a part of which once belonged to Japan.

Third, the vast regions of Magadan, Chukotka, and Kamchatka have potentially much richer resources than Greenland. Chukotka, which borders U.S. Alaska, has abundant deposits of gold, copper, platinum, silver, tungsten, tin, coal, oil, and gas. Magadan is recognized as one of the world’s richest mining areas, with hundreds of gold ore deposits, dozens of silver ore deposits, substantial oil and gas reserves, and numerous ferrous and non-ferrous metals.

The Sakha Republic along the Arctic Coast is the largest region inside Russia – spanning the size of India. It possess over 25% of the world’s mined diamonds and accounts for 99% of Russia’s diamond production. It is also a major gold producer and holds substantial reserves of oil, gas, silver, tungsten, and other minerals. Sakha also has a majority indigenous population that would seek recognition and diplomatic relations with the United States. It could thereby develop its abundant resources without fear of expropriation by Moscow and benefit from its prime location along the northern sea route.

A fourth advantage for Washington is that unlike in Greenland and Canada, the local population in Chukotka, Magadan, Kamchatka, Sakha, and other alienated and destitute regions would greatly benefit from U.S. investment and potential protectorate status. While Greenlanders and Canadians already benefit from democratic pluralism and high living standards and reject any American control, the post-Russia nations freed of Moscow’s bondage would welcome Western administrators and businesses that would invest in local development.

Increasingly desperate for money to fund its war in Ukraine, Moscow siphons off over two thirds of revenues from the resource rich Russian regions but provides few tangible benefits in return. As state spending is fixated on the war economy, there is minimal investment in extractive industries, infrastructure is collapsing, social services and health care provisions are shrinking, and a disproportionate number of the indigenous population are recruited to die in Ukraine. Given this unsustainable policy to keep Russia intact, American and broader Western involvement in the Pacific and Arctic regions would provide a unique opportunity for promoting prosperity and liberty.

Instead of playing into Moscow’s hands by claiming territories from close allies that divide the Western alliance, the Trump administration can become a far-sighted strategic player across the northern hemisphere by claiming territories that Russia cannot develop or defend. To achieve its geopolitical and economic objectives, the White House needs to pursue several policies to further weaken and rupture the Russian state.

First, Ukraine must be fully armed with no restrictions on its military, energy, and infrastructure targets inside Russia. Second, Moscow’s main revenue stream from the sale of oil must be curtailed by banning purchases by third countries and grounding Russia’s “shadow fleet” carrying sanctioned oil. This would help precipitate the implosion of the state budget that fuels the war. And third, as Russia’s state structure begins to unravel preparations must be made to establish relations with emerging republics and regions. These aspiring states are much more likely to greet American officials and businessmen with open arms than Greenlanders or Canadians.

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture