Janusz Bugajski, 15 January 2024
Republika Srpska’s “national day” on January 9th is not only an assertion of separatism from Bosnia-Herzegovina but a demonstration of a Serbian client state joining the “Russian World.” The policies of RS leader Milorad Dodik undermine European security by allowing Moscow to possess a loyal outpost in the Western Balkans and promote Serbia’s regional imperialism.
Moscow controls several quasi-states in the former Soviet Union, which it acquired primarily through war and ethnic expulsions. These include Transnistria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Crimea and parts of four other oblasts in Ukraine. The local leaders of these entities either seek to create independent states with Moscow’s assistance, as in the case of Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, or Moscow selected local leaders to pursue secession and annexation by Russia, as with the four Ukrainians regions. The RS is following the first pattern, with local leaders benefiting from Russian help to challenge the existence of Bosnia-Herzegovina and help shield themselves against pressure from Brussels and Washington.
Russian influence in the RS has grown exponentially in recent years, with frequent trips by Dodik to Moscow and personal meetings with Putin, together with numerous visits of Russian political and security officials to Banja Luka. RS has opened a representative office in Moscow to underscore that it pursues an alternative foreign policy to that of the state government in Sarajevo. Dodik openly supports the Russian invasion of Ukraine and backed the holding of fraudulent referenda in Russian-occupied territories. And in 2023, Dodik awarded Putin with the highest medal of honor for his “patriotic concern and love” for RS.
Dodik has tried to increase trade with Russia and depicts Moscow as a major economic supporter, even though the RS remains dependent on the EU for its economic survival. Banja Luka is mired in corruption and interlinked with Russia’s business and security networks. It receives Russian gas via Serbia and Bulgaria but pays a lower price for its loyalty to Moscow. The US maintains sanctions on Dodik for his corruption and threats to Bosnia’s stability and territorial integrity.
By parading armed troops through Banja Luka on “national day,” Dodik deliberately defies the EU and US. The annual parades are supported by the Kremlin which helps arm the participants and sends its Night Wolves biker gang, an almost cartoon imitation of American biker groups, to march alongside Serbian nationalists. Serbian mercenaries have also been recruited in the RS for Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The RS delivers several objectives for Moscow in the Balkans, similar to other unrecognized entities in the wider Europe. It disrupts stability and undermines Western policy. It blocks crucial reforms needed for Bosnia’s entry into NATO and the EU. It enables Russian officials to encourage secession. Moscow also questions International Criminal Tribunal rulings against Bosnian Serb officials charged with war crimes and seeks to end oversight of the country by the Office of the High Representative. In return, the RS government blocks Sarajevo from aligning with Western foreign policies such as sanctions against Russia and UN General Assembly resolutions.
The RS also takes the spotlight away from Serbia itself which has even broader plans for regional disruption, dominance, partition, and annexation toward Bosnia, Kosova, and Montenegro. And by possessing a loyal client state in the Balkans, Moscow can claim that it benefits from expanding alliances even in Europe and helps advance its penetration of the Balkans. By pushing for separation, the RS also challenges Western support for the independence of Kosova. But although Serbian leaders claim that the West is hypocritical in recognizing Kosova and not the RS, the differences between the two cases could not be starker.
Whereas Kosova was liberated to prevent the genocide of the Albanian majority, the RS was created through the genocide of the Bosniak majority. Kosova had federal status, administrative borders, and its own government in federal Yugoslavia before Miloševiċ’s coup. RS was never an administrative unit with established borders or a regional government. It only came into existence through the slaughter and expulsion of the Muslim Bosniaks, which held majorities throughout eastern Bosnia before the 1990s war. Indeed, the RS is reminiscent of the creation of Russian entities in Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson through the mass murder and expulsion of Ukrainians.
Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player./The Geopost/