Bugajski for The Geopost: Belgrade blocks EU accession for the western Balkans

Janusz Bugajski

In its campaign to exert Serbian dominance in the Western Balkans, the Vučić government is blocking the region’s progress toward European Union accession. Belgrade calculates that EU membership for any neighboring state will diminish its influence, increase economic disparities with a stagnant Serbia, and raise the role of countries combating Russian influence in Europe.

Belgrade’s primary targets in its anti-accession campaign are Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro. At the same time, Kosova is constantly pressured in order to provoke its government, spark disputes with EU officials, and fracture the state so it cannot qualify for EU entry in the future. In Bosnia, the Serb entity is not merely a steppingstone for assembling a larger Serbia, it is also a means to undermine the central government in Sarajevo and derail the state from pursuing its EU ambitions. Republika Srpska welcomes EU funds to keep it afloat, but it will not allow Bosnia to achieve all the criteria for membership.

Although Bosnia has been a candidate for EU entry since 2022 and Brussels has agreed in principle to open accession talks, not all conditions set by the EU Commission have been met. One must expect further delays as RS representatives and their Croatian nationalist collaborators can block necessary reforms or create new controversies to delay the process. Belgrade and Banja Luka have concluded that Bosnia’s EU entry would defeat their objective to fully divide the state.

Belgrade is also determined to keep Montenegro outside the EU, especially as the country is now the primary regional candidate for accession. The coalition government in Podgorica contains Serbian nationalists who fear that Montenegro’s independence will be strengthened through EU entry and its economy will grow through more extensive EU funding and foreign investment. This would undermine the narrative that close links with Serbia and Russia benefit Montenegro.

Among the tactics to obstruct Montenegro’s EU progress, the country’s parliament adopted a genocide resolution in May equating World War Two German and Croatian concentration camps. The move outraged the Croatian government. Zagreb claimed the intent was not to honor the victims or foster reconciliation but to score political points for Serbian parties in Montenegro. The resolution was proposed by Andrija Mandić, the Assembly Speaker and leader of the New Serbian Democracy party, which maintains close ties with Vučić. Passage of the resolution was a condition for continuing Serbian support for the coalition government.

Belgrade calculates that such provocative moves by Podgorica will convince Zagreb to block Montenegro’s pathway toward the EU. The resolution was also designed to downplay or contextualize the Srebrenica genocide and thereby damage relations with the Bosniak community. This can stoke regional tensions with both Croatia and Bosnia from which only Serbia will benefit. Other provocations by Serbian parties can be expected in the coming months to obstruct the process of Montenegro’s EU entry.

Serbia itself has no realistic prospect for EU membership, especially because of its denial of Kosova’s independence and its positive position toward the Putin regime. Indeed, Belgrade continues to disqualify itself by cultivating closer security and economic ties with Moscow. During a recent meeting with Putin in Vladivostok, Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin asserted that Serbia under Vučić will never impose economic sanctions on Russia, it will never become a NATO member, and it will never allow any “anti-Russian” actions to be conducted from its territory. In translation, this means that Belgrade will allow Kremlin subversion, corruption, and information offensives to be launched from Serbia against its neighbors. Vulin even demonstrated his subservience to Putin by claiming that without Russia Serbia would not exist.

EU officials have made it clear that Serbia’s intimate ties with Russia are incompatible with Union values and with the accession process for candidate countries. In particular, Vulin’s fawning praise of a genocidal regime repels EU members facing Moscow’s threats on a daily basis, such as Poland and the three Baltic states. While Vučić remains in power, Serbia will not be accepted for Union membership. Belgrade is therefore determined to prevent the EU accession of neighbors that it claims to be part of Serbia and by extension a component of the “Russian world.”

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His new book published this autumn is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power.

/The Geopost