Vucic has started to change his rhetoric, but is afraid to impose sanctions on Putin

Serbia is the only European country, apart from Belarus, that has not joined the global sanctions against Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine, despite its desire to join the EU and constant pressure from outside. Brussels and Washington have long urged Belgrade to impose sanctions.

But although Serbian rhetoric has recently begun to change, Belgrade is still sitting on two chairs, concludes BBC Russia.

BBC Russia notes that since the start of the war in Ukraine, the EU has approved eight sanctions packages against Russia – against public and private companies, government officials and others close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At the same time, new elections were held in Serbia. In her inauguration speech, Prime Minister Ana Brnabic did not mention a word about the possibility of imposing sanctions against Moscow – even though this question has been asked by all the guests who have come to Belgrade in the last six months, both from the West and from the East, the text says.

Cautious diplomatic hints from European partners have long since given way to direct appeals. “Serbia should work to harmonise EU foreign policy and impose sanctions against Russia,” wrote European Commissioner for Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi in a report.

“The obligation is not legal, but political and moral”

Serbia still has no formal obligation to align its foreign policy with Brussels attitude, said political scientist Petar Milutinovic of the Institute for European Studies in Belgrade.

On the other hand, any country with EU candidate status – Serbia has initiated the process to join the Union and has official candidate status – must first bring its diplomacy and defence infrastructure into line with Brussels strict requirements.

Once the process is approved, any disagreements on EU foreign policy and common European security are resolved afterwards: this is the sixth stage of the integration process, which Serbia has not yet formally reached.

“The obligation is not a legal one, but a political and moral one. Because if you have already been given the status of a candidate, you have to share the views and values of the community you want to belong to”, says Milutinović.

Brussels has developed a specific negotiating model for potential Member States, explains the political scientist. The “revised methodology”, as European bureaucrats call it, is built as a system of rewards and punishments for political moves in one direction or another.

If a country’s process goes in an unfavorable direction, that country could receive a pre-accession “beating” in the form of access to European funds for agricultural development or employment, which are usually only available to member states.

A new “Iron Curtain” over Europe

“For all Serbia’s flaws and shortcomings, the West still has much to offer Belgrade,” said Jade McGlynn, a military researcher at King’s College London who studies the culture of memory and military propaganda in contemporary Russia.

If the country’s progress is not evident, the EU could cut off funding for joint projects or even halt negotiations on the country’s accession to the Union.

“If Serbia continues to sit on two chairs, Belgrade runs the risk of being fed up with its European partners and freezing the negotiation process,” said Natasha Vunsch, professor of European integration at the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Paris.

Milutinovic, however, believes that Brussels will find it difficult to end the accession negotiations even if Belgrade does not join the Western sanctions. “Freezing the negotiations in the long term does not benefit anyone”, he explains.

Nevertheless, Milutinović warns that tectonic changes are taking place on the geopolitical scene and Serbia must not “sleep through the fall of the Berlin Wall again”. A new “Iron Curtain” is descending over Europe, a bloc of countries is emerging, completely separate from Russia and Belarus, Milutinovic says.

The EU’s eighth sanctions package aims to isolate Russia as much as possible from the rest of the world.

Europe itself is therefore forced to look for other types and sources of energy supply. And Serbia will have to solve the same problem.

Change in Vucic’s rhetoric

26 February – On 24 February, Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine and launched a large-scale three-pronged invasion. Belgrade reacted to this flagrant violation of international law almost two days later. At the same time, the statement was worded rather cautiously: Serbia supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity but does not want to impose sanctions against Russia, writes BBC Russia.

2 March – Serbia was among the countries that openly condemned the Russian army’s attack on Ukraine at the UN General Assembly. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic explained Belgrade’s decision by saying that Serbs “must not remain silent because of history”. He stressed in particular that the text of the resolution adopted by the UN does not mention any sanctions.

4 May – Vucic met Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, after which he stated that “Serbia has serious disagreements with the EU on sanctions against Moscow”. Nevertheless, Vucic recalled that Belgrade “clearly and unequivocally” defends the position that the invasion of Ukraine is unacceptable.

“We ourselves have lived under sanctions for a decade, so we have a special attitude towards them”, Vucic explained at the press conference, assuring reporters that “Serbia has understood very well the message of Germany and everyone else”.

1 October – “Serbia is not imposing sanctions against Russia because it defends its policy wherever it can, and our country’s policy is determined by a decision of the National Security Council,” said Mr Vucic.

Serbia’s National Security Council met on 25 February. The 15-point resolution adopted underlines Serbia’s determination to respect the territorial integrity of other countries, but states that Belgrade’s consideration of the need for the possible imposition of sanctions will be guided “solely by the need to protect its vital economic and political interests”.

Vucic recalled that representatives of several countries had called on the European Parliament to suspend negotiations with Serbia on EU accession until Belgrade imposes sanctions against Moscow. The Serbian President described such moderation as a clear example of pressure.

On 13 October, however, the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee adopted a resolution calling for negotiations on Belgrade’s European future to resume only after Serbia agrees to the sanctions imposed by EU countries against Moscow.

8 October – Vucic reiterates that Belgrade will not impose sanctions against Moscow. Serbia, he said, owed nothing to anyone and would be guided solely by its own interests.

“We are not imposing sanctions because we are buying gas at a lower price, not because we are guaranteeing support in the UN Security Council. We are doing this because we respect public international law, we respect ourselves and basic moral principles, because we know what sanctions have done to us,” Vucic said.

Belgrade will maintain this position until “the damage to Serbia is much greater than anything else”. Vucic added that the government may change its decision in the future if it sees that it cannot do otherwise.

What if Belgrade disappoints Moscow?

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandar Grushko said in mid-October that Moscow would be disappointed if Serbia imposed sanctions on it, saying bluntly that “any government guided by national interests would not take such a political step”.

During his stay in Belgrade, however, the Serbian authorities did not say a word about this, Komersant notes.

“The West’s stern demands have clearly had an impact. Serbia last week supported a UN resolution condemning the Russian Federation for holding a referendum and annexing four Ukrainian regions. The rhetoric of Serbian leaders has also changed”, the newspaper adds.

The newspaper also notes that the usual assurances that “brotherly Russia” will not be sanctioned were missing from the announcement of the meeting this time.

Any decision by Serbia to impose sanctions would have wide-ranging consequences. “If Vucic decides to impose sanctions, Russia still has the ability to raise a pro-Putin wave in Serbia and turn the population against Vucic,” says McGlynn.

He believes that Russia could punish Serbia in some way if it decides to impose sanctions, but that such moves could cause a headache for Vucic. But he adds that it should be remembered that Russia is no longer as strong economically, geopolitically and security-wise.

The Kosovo issue

One of the foundations of the Serbian-Russian relationship is Moscow’s support on the Kosovo issue, but also energy dependence.

Milutinovic says Moscow is driven by its own interests. He cites Gazpromneft’s purchase of NIS, the monopolist on the Serbian oil and gas market, at a discounted price in 2008 in exchange for Russia’s support in the UN Security Council.

Milutinovic stresses that these are purely business rational moves: “There are no emotions, no brotherly and centuries-old friendship.” It is the opposite.”

The sale was preceded by a December 2008 inter-state agreement between Serbia and Russia, concluded in the year Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia.

McGlynn argues that the Kremlin has no interest in resolving the Kosovo issue: “So Serbia cannot really make progress towards the EU unless it makes some concessions.”

“Serbia has other useful allies – such as Spain and now Ukraine – who are willing to support Belgrade’s position on Kosovo in exchange for much smaller concessions”, adds the expert.

One possible solution proposed by France and Germany is Kosovo’s entry into the UN (i.e. its recognition at international level), which would open a faster path to the EU for Serbia.

However, McGlynn says, such proposals should not be believed blindly, as “the main problem is that the Western EU countries do not want to see the bloc enlarged at the moment”.

“If Serbia is going to make any concessions on Kosovo, it will have to do so only with certain guarantees”, the expert believes.

What ambassadors in Serbia say?

BBC Russia also provides the views of the EU, US and Russian ambassadors in Belgrade:

“Belgrade has not been given a deadline (to impose sanctions against Russia), but this issue is attracting a lot of attention in European capitals, in the European Parliament and in Brussels in general, because it is an issue that concerns the future of the whole continent, our security and our prosperity,” said EU head of delegation Emanuel Gioffre.

“Serbia has a long and complex history of sanctions and we understand the special relationship with sanctions. But it is important to take a good look at their national interests and I am sure that sooner or later they will see that they are in the West. I would like to warn the Serbs to understand that this is not their ‘Mother Russia’, we are dealing with a completely different Russia. If you look at Europe, very few countries, and I am thinking only of Belarus and Serbia, have not imposed sanctions against Russia. The question is whether they want Serbia to stay in this society,” said US Ambassador Christopher Hill.

“I believe that Serbia will not join the ranks of countries that do not have their national good and the good of their citizens in mind, but we are aware of the pressures on Serbia to impose sanctions. When it comes to Kosovo, Moscow’s aim is to make a decision based on the agreement between Belgrade and Pristina and that decision is in Belgrade’s interest and it has nothing to do with the possible imposition of sanctions,” said Russian Ambassador to Serbia Aleksandar Bocan-Harchenko./nova.rs/