Institutional collapse and the blockage of Serbia's European path

Faced with ever-increasing and almost insurmountable challenges both domestically and internationally, Aleksandar Vučić's regime has opened a direct front of war against segments of the prosecution and judiciary that it does not control.

This conflict has reached the point where pro-government media are openly warning of the abolition of the Organized Crime Prosecutor's Office (TOK), disguised as an alleged "reorganization" of the prosecutorial system in Serbia.

However, despite these warnings, the government has not yet dared to officially present such a proposal to the Parliament. Instead, one of the regime's well-known figures for shady political dealings, in his capacity as a deputy, has presented an initiative for changes to the justice laws.

Although this proposal does not directly mention TOK, it is clear that it is a “test tube” of the government, to test the reaction of domestic public opinion and the European Union. Given the well-known modus operandi of the Vučić regime, there is a reasonable fear that, in order to avoid a harsh public reaction, the attack on the Organized Crime Prosecutor's Office could be carried out through the introduction of additional amendments at a later stage. These amendments could be added to the proposal submitted by the former hunger striker in the so-called “Ćacilend” tent, MP Uglješa Mrdić.

Equally possible is the scenario that the entire proposal is withdrawn or rejected, if the government estimates that an open confrontation with TOK would cause extremely negative reactions from the European Union and the domestic public.

Meanwhile, in parallel with Mrdić’s political performance in the Assembly, the regime suffered a heavy defeat in the elections for members of the High Prosecutorial Council, where government-backed candidates were soundly defeated. Through a series of obstructive actions — including complaints by losing candidates and attempts to block the functioning of the Council — the regime is now trying to contest the electoral process and impose its repetition.

However, the prosecutorial organization is fiercely opposing these efforts, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the prosecution itself could become an even greater obstacle to Vučić than the universities, which have long been the target of political pressure.

What has really worried Vučić in the prosecution's work are the investigations that the Organized Crime Prosecution (TOK) has launched into the regime's efforts to suppress, through the state-owned Telecom and its director, the last media outlets in Serbia that are not under direct government control. It is precisely these investigations that have sparked an open clash between TOK and the High Public Prosecutor's Office in Belgrade, which is controlled by Vučić, over the parallel investigations into the case of the audio recording of a conversation between the director of Telecom of Serbia, Vladimir Lučić, and the director of United Group, Stan Miller.

In this recording, the director of the state telecommunications operator, acting on behalf of the president of Serbia, asks the head of the competing company to remove “inappropriate” staff from the media outlets it owns. While what is known in the public as “Vučić’s prosecution” is trying to question the authenticity of the recording, TOK has focused on the existence of serious abuses that its content itself suggests.

As in the case of the police, which Vučić is subjecting to a deep personnel “cleansing” – or rather, a contamination with cadres loyal to him – his fear of the TOK stems from the fact that this prosecutor’s office has a considerable amount of evidence of links between the regime and organized crime. Politically weakened, it has become clear to Vučić that the time for irresponsibility is coming to an end and that he, along with people in his closest circle, including his family, could easily face criminal liability once they lose power.

The regime's fight against the independence of the judiciary has also been accompanied by the court's decision to reject the continuation of the procedure against Vučić's ministers, who are considered responsible for the collapse of the shelter in Novi Sad, where 16 people lost their lives. This case proves that, through the courts he controls, Vučić is trying to eliminate from the investigation those suspects through whom the case of the tragedy and the corrupt connections that led to it could lead directly to him.

Here too, the Organized Crime Prosecutor's Office is once again becoming an obstacle to the government, as it is conducting a parallel investigation into corruption in the entire construction project of the railway from Belgrade to Subotica - an affair where well-known government names, including Goran Vesic and Tomislav Momirovic, once again appear as suspects.

Meanwhile, Vučić also faced the collapse of the process of electing the new REM council, as well as the refusal so far of the largest number of European Union member states to open Cluster 3 to Serbia in EU membership negotiations.

In addition to control over the state apparatus and the justice system, control over the REM – which by law should be an independent regulatory body for electronic media – is vital for the survival of Vučić’s regime. Through this institution, he not only keeps the public service under control, directly influencing the appointment of members of the RTS Board of Directors that selects the general director, but also controls the allocation of public frequencies to “appropriate” media and blocks their allocation to media that are not in line with the government.

However, the European Union insists precisely on the liberation of Serbia's captured media scene as a fundamental prerequisite for the holding of free and fair elections, as well as for the overall stabilization of the internal situation in the country. Such a process would essentially mean the beginning of the end of the Vučić regime and open the way for the consideration of his legal responsibility.

Faced with the reality that there is no place for him and his regime in a state governed by the rule of law, a member of the European Union, Vučić has chosen to sabotage Serbia's further progress in the European integration process and push the country towards self-isolation. Although, like his authoritarian counterparts in Georgia, he still does not dare to openly reject Serbia's European path, through constant obstruction he achieves the same practical effect.

And this effect is a direct blow to the future of Serbia, which – if it remains isolated and outside the European Union – risks being sentenced to gradual disappearance from the map of independent and stable states./TheGeoPost.